Lithuania’s foreign minister says NATO could ‘level’ Russia’s military bases in Kaliningrad. Moscow threatens nuclear retaliation.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys gave a wide-ranging interview that drew sharp criticism from Russian politicians over his remarks about Kaliningrad. Moscow called his words “madness.” The interview was published in the Swiss newspaper Neue Zurcher Zeitung on May 18. Here is what the minister said, and how Russia reacted.

What Lithuania’s foreign minister said

Budrys said Lithuania lacks air defense capabilities and that Russian and Ukrainian drones “constantly violate our airspace,” adding that Russian combat aircraft sometimes fly over Lithuania with their transponders switched off.

The Russia–Ukraine war had “sharply increased the likelihood of incidents,” the minister said. Lithuania is investing in short- and medium-range systems, he said, but the country “lacks a long-range air defense system to repel ballistic and cruise missiles.” Budrys said Lithuania is clear-eyed about Russia’s intentions and capabilities: “The only variable is our own vulnerability. And that is what we are working on.”

Budrys said he believes in Article 5 of the NATO charter and has no doubt that European allies would come to Lithuania’s aid in the event of an invasion. NATO troops are already stationed in Lithuania, with Germany bearing primary responsibility, and he said he is convinced Germany will defend Lithuania’s security: “Germany gave us its word.”

On Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave situated between Lithuania and Poland, the minister said:

Asked whether he feared “the erosion of European unity,” Budrys said Europeans know what lies ahead for Europe in the coming years. “And we know what is at stake. But I hope that the strategic debate taking place these days across all parties will lead to one conclusion: the cost of inaction will be too high,” he added.

How Moscow reacted

A sampling of Russian media headlines:

• RIA Novosti: “Lithuania’s Foreign Ministry called on NATO to attack Kaliningrad.”
• TASS: ”‘Thunder’ and threats: how Lithuania’s foreign minister dreamed of taking Kaliningrad from Russia.”
• Moskovsky Komsomolets: “The Vilnius ‘Judas goat’: Lithuania asks NATO to start a war with Russia.”

Maria Zakharova, the official spokesperson for Russia’s Foreign Ministry, called the minister’s remarks “suicidal paranoia.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov echoed that assessment: “This statement is on the verge of madness.” Kaliningrad Governor Alexei Besprozvannykh said he was worried about the health of Lithuanian officials: “We have noticed that this kind of activity tends to happen either in spring or in autumn.”

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov weighed in along the same lines: “They need to somehow confirm that they exist — only, unlike the famous philosopher who said ‘I think, therefore I am,’ these ones just exist.”

Some Russian politicians invoked Ivan Krylov’s fable The Elephant and the Pug. Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said: “As everyone knows, little pugs love to bark loudly at big animals to boost their own standing.” State Duma deputy and Security Committee member Mikhail Sheremet said: “Lithuanian officials should stop yapping at Kaliningrad.”

Others issued more bellicose statements. State Duma Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman and LDPR leader Leonid Slutsky threatened nuclear retaliation: “In the event of a NATO attack on Kaliningrad, Russia’s military and nuclear doctrines would inevitably come into force.” Federation Council member for the Kaliningrad region Alexander Shenderyuk-Zhidkov questioned whether Lithuania, “after 36 years of independence, is really worthy of it.”

Russia has accused the Baltic states of helping Ukraine carry out drone strikes

Russian propaganda outlets, Foreign Ministry officials, and politicians have repeatedly accused Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia of allegedly providing their airspace for Ukrainian drones attacking Russian territory. The Baltic states have denied the accusations.

In April, Zakharova threatened that Russia would deliver a “response” to countries that allow their airspace to be used for strikes: “The relevant warning has been issued to the countries in question. If they — if the regimes of those countries — have enough sense, they will listen. If not, they will have to deal with the response.”

Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claimed on May 19 that Ukraine was allegedly preparing to launch drones directly from Baltic territory. “According to information received, Kyiv does not intend to limit itself to using the air corridors that the Baltic states have provided to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Drones are planned to be launched from the territory of those states as well,” the SVR said.

The intelligence service claimed that Ukrainian military personnel from the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Unmanned Systems Forces were already stationed at military bases in Latvia, and warned: “The coordinates of decision-making centers on Latvian territory are well known, and the country’s NATO membership will not protect those who aid terrorists from just retribution.”

Latvian authorities accused Russia of lying. “Russia lies again. This time it is SVR or the External Intelligence Service running a disinformation campaign against Latvia. FACT: Latvia does NOT provide airspace for attacks on Russia. That has been explained several times to Russian representatives,” Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze said.

Latvia’s Foreign Ministry summoned Russia’s chargé d’affaires a.i. Dmitry Kasatkin following the SVR statement, lodged a formal protest, and handed him an official note.

All of this is unfolding amid increasingly frequent drone incursions into the Baltic states

The Finnish tabloid Iltalehti reported on May 17 that, according to NATO sources, Russian armed forces have been using electronic warfare to redirect Ukrainian drones toward Finland or the Baltic states.

Several such incidents occurred in just the past week alone.

• On the night of May 14, at least one drone entered Finnish airspace. A danger alert was issued in Helsinki, residents were urged to stay indoors and away from windows, and the local airport was closed. Finnish Air Force Hornet fighters were scrambled. A danger alert was also issued that same day in Latvia’s border regions.
• On the night of May 16, a Ukrainian drone entered Latvian airspace. The armed forces activated air defense units, and fighters from NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission were deployed. Alerts were declared in border regions. The drone left Latvian airspace several hours later.
• On the evening of May 17, a Ukrainian drone was found in northeastern Lithuania. According to the armed forces, radar had not detected it that day. Residents of Utena County discovered it. How the drone entered Lithuanian airspace remains unclear.
• On the morning of May 19, a Ukrainian UAV was detected in Estonian airspace heading toward a target in Russia, Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said. Romanian F-16 fighters participating in a NATO mission were scrambled to intercept it. The drone was shot down over Lake Võrtsjärv. A drone alert was in effect in southern Estonia for about an hour. Ukraine subsequently apologized to Estonia.

The most recent incident occurred on the morning of May 20. Alerts were declared in several parts of Lithuania, including Vilnius, over a drone approaching from the direction of Belarus. Automatic danger warnings were sent to residents’ phones. According to the Baltic news website Delfi, the alert was initially set at “yellow” (attack probable) before being raised to “red” (attack in progress).

Evacuations to shelters were carried out in some localities, including Vilnius. Among those taking shelter were Lithuania’s top leaders: President Gitanas Nauseda, Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene, and parliament speaker Juozas Olekas.

Lithuania’s Defense Ministry announced that NATO air forces responsible for Baltic airspace security had been activated because of the drone. It remains unknown whether the drone came down in Lithuania or left its airspace.