Meduza’s daily newsletter: Friday, September 13, 2024 Predicting the impact of Kyiv using long-range Western missiles in Russia, U.S. links RT to intelligence operations, and Moscow invites women to undergo fertility testing

Storm Shadow strikes on Russian soil: turning point, catastrophic error, or moderate shift?

The U.K. and the U.S. appear set to authorize Ukraine in the near future to use U.K.-French-made long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles to strike military targets on Russian territory. The expected policy change was first reported by The Guardian on Wednesday, when U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and U.K. Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Kyiv to discuss the issue with Ukraine’s top authorities.

Ukraine has previously used Storm Shadow missiles to strike Russian military targets in occupied Crimea. The weapons have a range of about 250 kilometers, or 155 miles, compared to the 300-kilometer (186-mile) range of Washington’s ATACMS missiles or the 500-kilometer (310-miles) range of Germany’s Tauruses. On Thursday, the New York Times reported that Joe Biden will most likely allow Ukraine’s European allies to grant it permission to strike deep inside Russia with Western long-range weapons, but that he will stop short of letting Kyiv use U.S.-made weapons for that purpose.

Many Russian pro-war bloggers have tried to reassure their dismayed subscribers by arguing that the U.K.’s apparent decision is merely an “attempt to influence Russia psychologically,” Radio Svoboda notes. Meanwhile, the outlet said, supporters of the invasion were outraged after Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, asked how Russia would respond to a strike using Western weapons on Russian soil, said Thursday that “no response would be necessary” because “the special military operation itself is already a response to possible strikes with Western weapons deep in Russian territory.”

Later on Thursday, Vladimir Putin weighed in more forcefully, warning that Moscow would consider any strikes on Russian territory from Western weapons as NATO’s direct participation in the war. (Russian military expert Ruth Deyermond noted on X that Putin’s statement could paradoxically make it harder for the U.S. not to allow Ukraine to use Western weapons on Russian territory.)

Is this likely to be a turning point in the war?

According to Israel-based military expert David Sharp, who spoke to Radio Svoboda on Thursday, the U.K. authorizing Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory would be a “very important” development, but its significance shouldn’t be exaggerated. “A ‘turning point’ implies a development that fundamentally changes the situation on the battlefield. If we start seeing several dozen missiles per month strike important rear targets in Russia or the occupied territories, it won’t radically change the situation,” he said. At the most, he argued, Ukrainian long-range strikes in Russia might hinder Moscow’s ability to carry out air operations and lead to equipment losses at Russian airfields.

What other kinds of facilities could Ukraine use Storm Shadows to target?

The missile’s warheads are designed to take out bunkers and other fortified concrete structures, Sharp told Radio Svoboda, but they could also be used to target communication centers, logistics hubs, ammunition depots, and aircraft on runways. “If these missiles cause problems for Russian aviation, [it could] force Russia to move its aircraft further away, forcing it to consume more fuel and resources and reducing its combat effectiveness,” he said.

Sharp said the weapons’ effectiveness will depend on Russia’s countermeasures, but that even successful countermeasures will be quite expensive for Moscow. “Another important factor is that even if […] Ukraine’s permission to use missiles on Russian territory [remains] limited, Russia will have to take into account that if these restrictions are suddenly lifted, or if Ukraine suddenly decides to breach them, some very sensitive military targets could come under attack,” he added.

Is this a response to Iran giving ballistic missiles to Russia?

Probably so, according to Russian political and economic analyst Sergey Shelin, who also spoke to Radio Svoboda. “The West’s approach is based on the idea of not so much avoiding escalation as maintaining a balance, so it seems likely that they’ll permit the use of [Western] missiles [on Russian territory],” he said.

Has the West has stopped caring about Russia’s ‘red lines?’

Not at all, according to Shelin. “The negotiations [between Ukraine and its Western allies] have been drawn out precisely because they’re carefully discussing the limits of this authorization and what targets are allowed,” he said, adding that the West is “certainly afraid” of escalation. In fact, Shelin argued, it’s the Putin regime that’s “prepared to cross all ‘red lines’ not because it’s frightened or because it’s acting in response to something, but simply because there’s nothing holding it back.” 

Hasn’t Putin proven his ‘red lines’ are meaningless at this point?

BBC Moscow correspondent Steve Rosenberg weighed this question in an article published Friday. On one hand, he noted, Ukraine and Western countries have repeatedly crossed Russia’s purported red lines in the past, including immediately after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion, when Putin threatened that anyone who helped Ukraine would suffer retaliation “such as you have never seen in your entire history.” Additionally, Rosenburg said, Russian officials frequently describe the war in terms that imply they already consider the West to be directly participants, or even aggressors, in the conflict.

At the same time, Putin’s statements on Thursday indicate that he believes Western countries authorizing Ukraine to use their weapons on targets in Russia would “take the conflict to a new level,” Rosenberg argues. And while Putin didn’t specify what Russia’s response to this would be, other statements he’s made in recent months suggest he might be considering arming other countries to strike targets in Western countries. Meanwhile, Moscow said earlier this month that it’s amending its nuclear doctrine in response to Western “escalation.”

Ultimately, Rosenberg concludes, Ukraine’s allies will have to choose once again between playing it safe and giving Ukraine more leeway to defend itself. They appear to be leaning towards the latter.

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