The Real Russia. Today. Friday, July 5, 2024

The war in Ukraine

• 🪖 Public statements suggest declining recruitment for Russian military: Journalists at Agenststvo Media report that comments this week by former President and current National Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev (and comments last month by Vladimir Putin) indicate that Russia’s recruitment of new combat soldiers may have fallen from last year’s daily average of 1,500 to just 1,000 (though it’s unclear if Medvedev and Putin have merely started excluding volunteer fighters, such as recruited prisoners, from their tallies). Agentstvo also cites analysis showing soaring signing bonuses for contract soldiers and rising special payouts to combatants, which might also suggest lagging recruitment. Russia’s ability to sustain a large flow of new contract and volunteer fighters is considered crucial to avoiding a second round of mass mobilization.

💀 120,000 dead and counting: A new estimate from Meduza and Mediazona shows the rate of Russian military deaths in Ukraine is only growing (8-min read)

In the latest update to their list of confirmed Russian military deaths, Mediazona and BBC News Russian reported that at least 56,585 Russian soldiers have died fighting in Ukraine as of June 21. However, this list only includes soldiers whose deaths could be individually corroborated through open sources such as obituaries. In a previous investigation, Meduza and Mediazona used inheritance case data to estimate Russia’s losses and determined that 75,000 Russian soldiers had died in Ukraine as of the end of 2023. 

However, collecting and analyzing data from the National Probate Registry takes significant time and resources, and this means that our true mortality estimates come much less frequently than our colleagues’ updates to the list of confirmed deaths. To address this problem, we’ve devised a new method for estimating Russia’s true military death toll at any given time with a reasonably high level of accuracy. These “flash estimates” will now accompany updates to Mediazona and BBC Russian’s confirmed deaths list as well as Meduza’s own reports on casualties. According to our latest calculations, as of the end of June, approximately 120,000 Russian servicemen have died in the war since 2022, but the real number could be as high as 140,000.

🕊️ The Kremlin’s latest media guidelines for propagandists cover Putin’s ‘peace plan’ and the ‘multipolar world’ (3-min read)

Following Vladimir Putin’s appearance at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Astana earlier this week, the Kremlin has issued a new set of guidelines instructing Russian propagandists on how to spin the president’s comments on the prospect of peace talks with Ukraine. According to instructions obtained by Meduza, the Putin administration has advised Russian state media and pro-Kremlin publications to double down on claims that Moscow “isn’t refusing dialogue” and blame the lack of negotiations on Kyiv and, of course, the West. These latest guidelines also cover another one of Putin’s favorite talking points — the “multipolar world order.” 

🩺 Russian military doctors say injured soldiers who could be saved are dying on the battlefield in Ukraine (5-min read)

Some critically injured Russian soldiers who could have been saved are dying on the battlefield without ever receiving medical attention, according to a new investigation by the independent outlet Verstka. Even Defense Ministry doctors admit that the army’s medical care is poorly organized, with “potentially savable” soldiers not evacuated in time and others sent back to the front lines even when their treatment is unsuccessful.

📺 Russian TV airs footage showing mercy-killing between ‘Ukrainian’ soldiers, but the troops in the video are probably Russian

In a recent broadcast of the news program Vesti, the Russian state-owned network Rossiya-24 aired a video showing a soldier mercy-killing a fellow serviceman while fleeing drones. In the footage, a UAV bombs one of the soldiers, knocking him to the ground. The man’s injuries aren’t visible, but he immediately gestures to another fleeing soldier, apparently asking him to shoot him in the head and put him out of his misery. The other soldier obliges and continues running. Rossiya-24 host Anastasia Ivanova claimed that the video shows Ukrainian soldiers under a Russian drone attack. She and her cohost argued the “ideologically charged neo-Nazis” on Ukraine’s front lines have been reduced to a minority and are now fighting against both Russians and Ukrainians drafted by force. The show then featured comments from a man identified as a “special military operation” veteran who told viewers that the footage demonstrates the “animalistic nature” and “fascist ideology” embedded in the “subconscious” of certain Ukrainian soldiers. 

Rossiya-24’s footage was just a fragment of a longer video that first appeared in a June 22 Telegram post by the channel Russia No Context, which says it received it from a subscriber. According to the channel, the video shows Russian soldiers running in the direction of Ukrainian positions. Though several pro-invasion “Z” Telegram channels claim that Ukrainian psyops staged the footage, OSINT researchers including Ruslan Leviev at the Conflict Intelligence Team have geolocated the video to a town in Ukraine’s Zaporizhia region on the war’s frontlines. Leviev says he doubts the video is fake, explaining that it would be the best-staged video he’s ever seen in his years of analyzing war footage. He added that Russian soldiers do sometimes “finish off” wounded compatriots on the battlefield, but the video showing the man asking directly to be shot in the head is “quite unusual.” Leviev speculates that the desperation caught on camera indicates the dire circumstances at the front line.

Meduza’s own newsroom was unable to verify whether the soldiers in the video are Russian or Ukrainian, given the lack of identifying marks visible in the footage. The geolocated setting for the video also can’t explain whether the men were Russian or Ukrainian, though their blurred camouflage more closely resembles the uniforms of Russian soldiers. 

Hungary’s Viktor Orbán visits Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán arrived in Moscow on July 5 on what he described as a “peace mission,” just days after visiting Kyiv. Orbán met with Russian President Vladimir Putin for several hours to discuss the war in Ukraine. At a joint press conference afterward, Putin described the talks as “frank and useful,” while Orbán noted that “points of view remained far from each other in Kyiv and Moscow.” The visit drew ire from E.U. and NATO officials, who emphasized that Orbán only represents his own country. Viktor Orbán is the second E.U. leader to visit Moscow since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer visited the Russian capital in 2022.

Who cares if Orbán swings by Moscow? The Hungarian leader’s meeting with Putin provoked a mix of outrage and dismissiveness in Europe, where officials have insisted that Orbán does not represent the E.U. on his trip and accused him of undermining the union’s goals in Ukraine. (The leaders of Poland, Latvia, and Estonia were especially critical.) NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg noted that Orbán is scheduled to attend a summit in Washington next week and will have the chance to share what he discussed in Moscow. Officials in Kyiv, meanwhile, have admonished Orbán for seeking “agreements on Ukraine without Ukraine” and argued that “the only realistic way to restore a just peace” is Zelensky’s maximalist “formula,” which calls for the complete restoration of Ukraine’s 1991 borders. Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak also suggested that the Kremlin hopes to use the Hungarian leader’s visit “literally to beg for the reinstatement of an informal decision to ban defensive strikes by Ukraine.”

How did Russia welcome Orbán? In public comments during the meeting, Putin portrayed the visit as recognition from the European Union, stressing that Hungary is not just Moscow’s “long-time partner” but also the presiding country of the E.U. Council (from July 1 until the end of the year). Putin also expressed his willingness to discuss the “nuances” of a potential end to the war in Ukraine and asked Orban to relay the position of Hungary’s European partners. Putin even seated Orban at the same “small table” he uses for more intimate sitdowns with the representatives of “friendly nations.” The two leaders met first with their coteries of advisers and ministers and later spoke one-on-one for another three hours. In subsequent comments to the press, neither man took questions from reporters, but Putin did accuse Kyiv of refusing a diplomatic solution to the war and claimed that Ukrainian President Zelensky avoids a settlement because he fears losing re-election once martial law is lifted.

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Russian domestic affairs

• ⚖️ Ban their families, strip their assets: Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Russia’s official government newspaper, published an essay by lawyer Ilya Rusyaev where he endorses this week’s ruling by a St. Petersburg court to designate journalist Alexander Nevzorov and his wife as an illegal “extremist association” and says that the decision should be a model for future rulings against not just families but also “other small social groups.” Rusyaev also speculates in great detail about how the state should disperse the seized property of “extremists,” though attorney Valeria Vetoshkina explained to Meduza earlier this week that the authorities likely confiscate only the property that requires state registration (such as cars, housing, land, and stocks, but not personal items like furniture). Rusyaev regularly comments for Rossiyskaya Gazeta on high-profile legal cases.
• 👋 Mayor of town flooded this spring finally steps down: The mayor of Orsk, Vasily Kozupitsa, resigned on Friday. This April, floods damaged thousands of homes throughout the Orenburg region, particularly in Orsk, where a dam breach made matters worse. Three days after the dam failed, locals assembled outside Kozupitsa’s office to demand compensation for their lost homes and to criticize the mayor for inaction. Kozupitsa previously refused to step down before the flooding was resolved.
• ⚖️ Another verdict against an ‘undesirable’ accomplice: A Moscow court fined journalist Vladimir Romensky 7,500 rubles (about $85) for the misdemeanor offense of “participating in the activities of an undesirable organization” by joining The Insider Live’s YouTube livestream on March 8 for interviews with guests about the burials of Russian soldiers and the arrests of people mourning the death of opposition leader Alexey Navalny. (Russian officials designated The Insider as an illegal “undesirable” organization in the summer of 2022.)
• 🕊️ Russian court turns to eight-year-old consulate disruption: A Moscow court has sentenced in absentia Ukrainian national Zinovii Parasyuk to eight years in prison for attacking Russia’s Lviv consulate general in March 2016 during a rally demanding the release of Ukrainian POW Nadiya Savchenko. Zinovii Parasyuk was convicted of assaulting premises under international protection and “sentenced” below the legislated minimum term of 12 years. Parasyuk’s son, Volodymyr, was sentenced in November 2023 (also in absentia) to 11 years in prison.
• 📽️ A patriotism remake scandal: Russia’s Education Ministry supplied the Culture Ministry with a list of 30 classic films and 15 classic works of literature that the agency deems vital for cultivating patriotism among young people. The Education Ministry later denied reports that its list included recommendations for remaking certain classic films for modern-day moviegoers, though officials said they do suggest new adaptations of classic Russian literature.
• 🩺 Another jailed oppositionist faces dire health threat: Imprisoned opposition politician Vladimir Kara-Murza has been transferred to a prison hospital, and his lawyers have been denied access to their client, Kara-Murza’s wife reported on Twitter on Friday. Officials reportedly told the attorneys that their visitation request would have to wait until Monday because correctional institutions are closed to the public on the weekends. Kara-Murza is currently serving a 25-year sentence for “treason,” the dissemination of supposedly false information about the Russian military, and for aiding the activities of a banned “undesirable” organization. Two poisonings have left Kara-Murza with lifelong ailments that seriously jeopardize his health in prison. 

As the world turns

• 🎶 YouTube and Spotify close channels for sanctioned, pro-war Russian musicians: This week, YouTube blocked the official channels of two Russian musicians, Yaroslav Dronov (stage name: Shaman) and Polina Gagarina. The two performers were recently named in new E.U. sanctions for their public support of the invasion of Ukraine. In late June 2024, Spotify deleted its official pages for Dronov, Gagarina, and several other pro-war artists.
• 🛜 Apple reportedly blocks more than two dozen VPNs inside Russia at Kremlin’s orders: Apple has blocked AppStore access in Russia to 25 VPN services on orders from the federal media censor, Roskomnadzor, the agency claimed on Thursday. Journalists at Mediazona reported that Proton VPN, Red Shield VPN, NordVPN, and Le VPN are among the tools that are no longer available. In April 2024, Roskomnadzor’s head stated that his office had overseen the blocking of 150 popular VPN services. Anton Gorelkin, the deputy chairman of the State Duma’s Information Policy Committee, praised Apple as “one of the few American companies that strive to comply with Russian legislation and maintain a dialogue with [Russia’s] regulator.”
• 🇬🇪 DoD calls off exercises in Georgia amid ‘comprehensive review’: The U.S. Defense Department announced on Friday that it is “indefinitely postponing” “Noble Partner” military exercises with Georgia scheduled for later this month, in light of a new “comprehensive review” of bilateral relations with Georgia. Washington says the decision is a response to the Georgian government's “false accusations” that NATO powers have joined two “coup attempts” against Georgia’s ruling party and tried to pressure Tbilisi to “open a second front against Russia to alleviate pressure on Ukraine.”

🤖 BBC uncovers A.I.-powered Russian disinformation campaign

“A network of Russia-based websites masquerading as local American newspapers is pumping out fake stories as part of an A.I.-powered operation that is increasingly targeting the U.S. election,” according to a new BBC investigation. The BBC report focuses on fabrications about Olena Zelenska, the first lady of Ukraine, “buying a multimillion-dollar sports car in Paris,” President Zelensky “buying a mansion owned by King Charles III,” and the FBI “illegally wiretapping Donald Trump’s Florida resort.” The operation disseminates A.I.-generated articles through websites with names meant to sound like real U.S. newspapers, reaching larger audiences in part through Moscow-sympathizing Americans with large followings on social media, like former Marine John Mark Dougan and MAGA activist Jackson Hinkle. 

The BBC found that the “operatives” behind these fake stories even hire actors or use artificial narration to create videos featuring supposed “whistleblowers” and “independent journalists.” (The underwhelming videos are meant to be “quoted as “sources” and “cited in text stories on the fake newspaper websites,” says the BBC, not “go viral” themselves.)

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