Azerbaijani government sources say Russian missile likely downed passenger plane, media reports
The Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) plane that crashed in western Kazakhstan while on its way from Baku to Grozny on Wednesday went down as a result of a Russian anti-aircraft missile, Euronews reported on Thursday, citing government sources. According to the sources, Russian air defense forces fired a surface-to-air missile at the AZAL flight amid increased drone activity in Grozny. The missile reportedly exploded near the plane, damaging its fuselage.
Euronews sources also said the damaged plane was denied permission to land at Russian airports, despite the pilots requesting an emergency landing. Subhonkul Rahimov, a passenger on the Baku-Grozny flight who was injured in the crash, told Russian state media that the Azerbaijan Airlines crew attempted to land in Grozny three times. The crew was instructed to fly over the Caspian Sea toward Aktau in western Kazakhstan, according to Euronews. The plane’s GPS navigation systems were reportedly jammed throughout the flight over the sea.
The Azerbaijani outlet Caliber.Az reported, citing “reliable government sources,” that the plane was targeted by a Russian Pantsir-S air defense system as it approached Grozny. According to the outlet, Russian electronic warfare systems “completely paralyzed the communication systems” of the Azerbaijani aircraft, causing it to disappear from radar.
The British aviation security company Osprey Flight Solutions warned its clients that the Azerbaijan Airlines flight was “likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system,” the AP reported.
Additionally, Reuters reported that the flight “was downed by a Russian air defence system,” citing four sources in Azerbaijan with knowledge of the government’s investigation.
The Azerbaijani, Russian, and Kazakh governments have not officially commented on the reports that the AZAL plane was downed by Russian air defenses. On December 25, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated that the flight had altered its course “due to worsening weather conditions” and that the crash occurred “during landing” in Kazakhstan. “The causes of the crash are unknown to us. There are various theories, but I believe it’s too early to discuss them. The matter must be thoroughly investigated,” Aliyev said.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Russia would refrain from “building any hypotheses” until the investigation is complete. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s Senate Chairman Maulen Ashimbayev dismissed as "speculative" any attempts to "draw conclusions from photos, suggesting these are the result of certain actions, and so on."
Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev, who is leading the government’s commission investigating the crash, told Tengrinews that authorities are currently unable to confirm or dismiss any theories due to the ongoing investigation. During a subsequent briefing in Aktau, he reiterated that it is “impossible to rule out any theory.” Bozumbayev added that Kazakhstan does not have an official version of the events, and neither Russia nor Azerbaijan has provided one.
Shortly after the crash, videos emerged showing fragments of the plane’s tail section, which appeared to have damage consistent with that caused by anti-aircraft missile fragments.
The crash claimed the lives of citizens from three countries: Azerbaijan, Russia, and Kazakhstan. Azerbaijan’s Health Ministry released a list of 25 victims, including passengers and crew members aged 19 to 64. According to the Azerbaijani outlet 1news, the list only included Azerbaijani citizens. Kazakhstan’s Emergency Situations Ministry reported that six Kazakhstani nationals were among the dead, while Kazakhstani Transport Minister Marat Karabayev confirmed that seven Russians were also killed. All three Kyrgyz citizens aboard survived.
As of 3:45 p.m. Moscow time on December 26, the bodies of 10 victims had been identified: four Azerbaijanis, three Russians, and three Kazakhs, the Kazakhstani Emergency Situations Ministry told Russian state media.
On the morning of December 26, an emergency services plane transported nine Russian survivors from Aktau to Moscow. Azerbaijani citizens who were injured in the crash were being prepared for transport to Baku later that day.
The Azerbaijani authorities declared December 26 a day of mourning. A minute of silence was observed at Baku Airport, where the Azerbaijan Airlines flight had begun, and a memorial stand was set up to honor the victims. In Moscow, flowers were placed outside the Azerbaijani Embassy. The Chechen authorities pledged to assist the families of those killed and injured in the crash.