Sky-high cucumber prices are rattling Russian shoppers. The spike might be temporary, but the inflation problem isn’t.
At the start of the year, Russians got a shock at the grocery store: cucumber prices had skyrocketed. Still, officials and economists aren’t sounding the alarm; prices are expected to begin falling by spring. Inflation more broadly accelerated early in the year, though it’s already showing some signs of slowing. But bringing prices under control could mean sacrificing economic growth — and that, in turn, could deepen Russia’s budget deficit.
Sticker shock
In the first weeks of 2026, cucumber prices in Russia spiked so dramatically that they took on a life of their own. Social media flooded with complaints and photos of produce aisles showing price tags of 500 — and even 1,000 — rubles per kilogram ($2.93, or even $5.87 per pound). As Forbes Russia noted, by early February, cucumbers had effectively become as expensive as meat.
Even official data confirmed the spike. According to Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), prices rose 43 percent between late December and February 2, then climbed another 5.2 percent in the following week. Industry analysts say the actual increase is even higher.
The trade association Rusprodsoyuz estimates that over the past three months, cucumber prices have jumped 111 percent, with the average retail price reaching around 300 rubles per kilogram (about $1.76 per pound) by February. Alexey Plugov, head of agricultural research company AB-Center, told Forbes Russia that between December 22 and February 2, the price per kilogram rose from about 224 rubles to 317 rubles (from $1.32 per pound to $1.86 per pound).
And yet, viewed year over year, the picture looks far less dramatic. Compared with February 2025, vegetable prices are up just 1.8 percent. As Rusprodsoyuz Deputy Chairman Dmitry Leonov pointed out to Forbes Russia, last year prices rose 120 percent over the same three-month stretch.
Cucumbers in Russia always get more expensive in winter — and there are clear reasons for this.
First, seasonality. By the early 2020s, Russia had effectively become self-sufficient in growing cucumbers; today, about 95 percent of the market is supplied domestically. Thanks to widespread greenhouse technology, farmers now grow cucumbers year-round across the country — not only in the warmer southern regions but also in the colder central part of European Russia. In 2025, they harvested nearly 900,000 tons.
But winter production is costly. From November through March, greenhouses rely on intensive artificial lighting to compensate for short daylight hours, stimulating photosynthesis and speeding growth. Cucumbers, in particular, need bright, powerful light for up to 18 hours a day. Electricity can account for as much as half the cost of winter vegetables, and rates for producers have risen 23 percent over the past two years.
Then there’s the cold itself. January 2026 ranked among the three coldest in central Russia in the past 30 years — the very region where much of the country’s greenhouse capacity is concentrated. Heating costs rose accordingly. Freezing weather also makes cucumbers harder to store: at wholesale warehouses and smaller distribution points, they spoil faster than usual — driving up logistics costs throughout the supply chain.
Taken together, these factors make February a predictably difficult month for the cucumber market. Output falls. Harvesting and distribution become more expensive. And unlike during the 2025 potato price crisis — when authorities turned to imports — there are currently no foreign suppliers filling gaps in supply. Meanwhile, the cost of imported seeds, fertilizers, and equipment continues to climb. According to Plugov, production in February is roughly 35 percent lower than in January.
However, there may be some relief on the horizon for Russian cucumber lovers: prices are likely to fall soon. As daylight hours lengthen, temperatures rise, and open-field harvests begin, supply should increase. Officials and analysts alike expect prices to ease in the spring. Output in March is projected to be about one and a half times February’s level, and in April two to two and a half times higher — potentially pushing prices down to 90–100 rubles per kilogram ($0.53 to $0.59 per pound) by mid-spring.
The bigger inflation problem
In an interview with the business news outlet RBC, Russian Central Bank Deputy Director Alexey Zabotkin noted that the surge in cucumber prices reflects the pronounced seasonality of a single product, not “sustained inflationary processes” in the wider economy.
Keeping inflation in check is one of the Russian government’s main economic priorities in 2026. The Central Bank has been cautious in lowering its key interest rate from elevated levels. High rates curb business lending and make bank deposits more attractive for households, cooling consumer demand.
Even so, inflation accelerated at the start of the year, driven not only by seasonal increases in fruit and vegetable prices but also by the rise in value-added tax from 20 percent to 22 percent, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said.
Weekly data from Rosstat show that annual inflation in Russia peaked at 6.46 percent on February 2 before easing slightly to 6.36 percent by February 9. In late December, it stood at 5.59 percent, meaning inflation has yet to return even to last year’s level. At the same time, the Central Bank’s latest forecast for 2026 puts inflation at 4–5 percent.
Still, some economists say recent data point to a slowdown in inflation. Sofia Donets, chief economist at Tinkoff Investments, noted that “weekly inflation is better not only than in previous weeks but also than during the same period of the past three years.” The January bump from higher taxes and regulated tariffs, she said, has largely played out. What remains is consumer demand — which, for now, is subdued.
Reshetnikov maintains that inflation will continue to slow and move toward the 4–5 percent target range, giving the Central Bank “room” to cut rates further. Indeed, on February 13, the Central Bank cut the key rate from 16 percent to 15.5 percent. The problem, he acknowledged, is that the “natural price” of curbing inflation is stalled economic growth. Russia’s GDP may not increase at all in 2026, he said, with growth resuming only in 2027.
That outlook is troubling for a federal budget already suffering from revenue shortfalls. In January, the deficit reached 1.7 trillion rubles ($22 billion). Oil and gas revenues — depressed by lower global prices — fell to multi-year lows, totaling just 393 billion rubles ($5 billion). The shortfall could be offset by stronger-than-expected revenue from other sources. But those revenues depend on the broader health of the economy.
Whether the Russian authorities can balance the fight against inflation with the need to shore up the budget is difficult to predict. It is becoming increasingly harder to dismiss warnings that by summer, Russia’s economy, strained by war and sanctions, could face a crisis.
