Novaya Gazeta Europe: United Russia would have won just 34% in State Duma elections without ballot stuffing

Without fraud, United Russia would have won about 34% of the vote in the State Duma elections. The party’s official result — nearly 58% — was about 1.7 times that figure. Novaya Gazeta Europe reached this conclusion using calculations based on election analyst Sergey Shpilkin’s method.

Shpilkin’s method rests on the principle that adding large numbers of votes for one candidate increases both that candidate’s vote share and overall turnout. On a graph, polling stations with typical results form a relatively even cluster, while anomalous stations — where ballot stuffing is believed to have occurred — form a “comet tail” extending toward higher turnout and a larger vote share for the front-runner.

“This year, the cluster of fraud-free polling stations is centered at 34% of the vote for United Russia. That is probably what the result would have been without fraud,” Novaya Gazeta Europe said. Two election analysts agreed with its calculations, according to the outlet.

Sergey Shpilkin, a physicist, began analyzing Russian election statistics in 2007 using an approach developed by American diplomat John Brady Kiesling. Despite its limitations, many political scientists and journalists have used Shpilkin’s method to assess election fraud. Shpilkin’s home was searched in 2022, though he was already outside Russia at the time.