Economy minister warns Russia is ‘on the brink of recession,’ finance minister and central bank head disagree
Russia is “on the brink of a recession,” Economic Development Minister Maksim Reshetnikov said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
“In terms of the numbers, we’re seeing a slowdown — but all our figures are essentially a rearview mirror,” Reshetnikov said, as quoted by RBC. “Based on how businesses are feeling right now and on leading indicators, I think we’re already on the verge of slipping into a recession.”
Asked whether Russia might avoid a downturn, he added, “That now depends entirely on the decisions we make.”
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, meanwhile, said Russia’s economy was simply “cooling off,” but added that “summer always follows the cold.”
Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina characterized recent developments as the economy “coming out of an overheated state.” “We had growing demand, but supply lagged behind — and that’s where the overheating and inflation came from. It’s fairly straightforward,” she said.
According to Vedomosti, Nabiullina also noted that many of the resources that had driven Russia’s rapid growth over the past two years have now been depleted. Among other things, she said, businesses are facing a growing labor shortage.
Figures from the Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) show that Russia’s GDP grew by 1.4 percent year over year in the first quarter of 2025 — falling short of the Economic Development Ministry’s projection of 1.7 percent and the Central Bank’s forecast of 2 percent, Vedomosti reported. By the end of the year, the ministry expects the economy to grow by 2.5 percent, while the Central Bank forecasts a range of 1 to 2 percent.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Rosstat recorded a 4.5 percent year-over-year increase in GDP — the highest in several years. At the time, economists warned the economy was overheating.
