The Economist: Putin fears ending the war without victory. ‘They will hang me,’ he reportedly told his inner circle.

Russian President Vladimir Putin fears for his own safety if the war ends without Russia achieving even its minimum goal, capturing all of Donbas, The Economist writes.

Sources close to Putin told the outlet that at some point during the war, he told people around him, “They will hang me.” The outlet did not specify the context in which he said it or any other details of the conversation.

Citing polling data among other sources, the article’s authors write that discontent with the war is growing among ordinary Russians, and the mood among the elite is even grimmer, The Economist reports.

According to one source, the biggest problem is not the economy or the lack of military success but the time that has been wasted: whatever the outcome, nearly five years of fighting amount to a failure. “There is a growing feeling that the tsar is naked,” another member of Russia’s elite said.

Nor can Russian authorities simply let the war continue as it is. “Inertia-driven scenarios are disadvantageous to the Kremlin,” one source told the outlet, noting that economic resources and political capital are being squandered.

None of the economic or political problems Russia faces now is fatal for Putin: he still has the resources and the repressive apparatus needed to keep fighting. But how the war is perceived at home does matter, The Economist writes.

Nobody knows what’s going on in Putin’s head, the article’s authors acknowledge, but they suggest he’s probably “guided by the criminal logic of his regime: never show weakness.”

For that reason, Russian authorities may again choose to escalate to break out of the impasse, as they have before. The Economist names an intensified hybrid war and sabotage targeting Ukraine’s allies among the likely scenarios.

Western intelligence services believe Russia could strike European factories producing equipment for Ukraine’s military needs, the outlet says, though they don’t believe a direct military confrontation with NATO is likely.

Russia is also likely planning to intensify its strikes on Ukraine. Its Defense Ministry has already announced preparations for massive strikes on the country’s energy infrastructure.