‘Stockholm syndrome’ or strategy? Maria Kalesnikava’s pivot shocks Belarusian exiles.
Maria Kalesnikava, a prominent Belarusian opposition figure and a central figure in the 2020 protests who spent more than 5 years in prison, has called on Europe to follow the United States’ lead and resume dialogue with Alexander Lukashenko. In a new interview with the Financial Times, she argued that such engagement would help secure the release of more Belarusian political prisoners and strengthen European security. Officials in Brussels have yet to comment, but many members of the Belarusian political exile community — now concentrated in Vilnius and Warsaw — view Kalesnikava’s plea as naive.
“The greater Belarus’s isolation from Europe, the more it is forced closer to Russia,” Maria Kalesnikava told the FT. “This makes Belarus less safe and less predictable for Europe.” Since she was released from prison in December 2025 in a surprise deal brokered by the United States, Kalesnikava has raised eyebrows for her reticence to discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and for publicly expressing gratitude to Lukashenko. Initial public celebrations, including flashmobs honoring her iconic red lipstick, have given way to sharp criticism. While some observers urge patience and say Kalesnikava still needs time to emerge from five years in captivity, others have attributed her new advocacy to “Stockholm syndrome.”
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A professional flautist who spent years living in Germany before entering Belarusian politics, Kalesnikava cemented her status as an icon of the anti-Lukashenko resistance in September 2020, when she tore up her passport at the Ukrainian border to stop the Belarusian authorities from deporting her. Staying in Belarus, she was later sentenced to 11 years for alleged insurrection. In prison, where she endured brutal conditions in isolation, Kalesnikava’s health deteriorated significantly. At one point, she was hospitalized for an ulcer and reportedly weighed just 99 pounds (45 kilograms) due to an inability to digest the prison diet.
Her post-release politics have exposed a rift within the exiled Belarusian opposition. Last month, before the FT interview, political analyst Artyom Shraibman observed that Kalesnikava now represents a “softer,” compromise-oriented wing that clashes with the mainstream democratic forces. Some, like communications expert and former Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya staffer Anastasia Kostiugova, support Kalesnikava’s pivot, arguing that Washington’s recent engagement with Minsk has secured prisoner releases, while E.U. policy has failed to curb Russian influence.
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However, most Belarusian opposition figures — particularly the movement’s veteran members — remain skeptical. Former Culture Minister Pavel Latushko has warned that Kalesnikava’s proposed format would exclude the entire exiled democratic forces from negotiations. Political analyst Alexandr Feduta (who was released alongside Kalesnikava) and politician Anatoly Lebedko say engaging Lukashenko now would merely restart a decades-old cycle where his regime trades “human merchandise” for concessions, only to arrest more dissidents once the pressure eases. Activists Mikola Dziadok, Uladzimir Zhyhar, and Andrej Stryzhak have similarly contended that a “prisoners-at-any-cost” approach is strategically flawed because Lukashenko can and does arrest replacements in a matter of days. Any dialogue with such a regime will be ineffective without increased pressure, Kalesnikava’s critics argue, noting that European policy on Belarus is also rooted in Minsk’s complicity in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
While Kalesnikava’s release was a major event for Belarus’s exiled opposition and her newfound pragmatism strengthens the democratic forces’ pro-negotiation camp to some degree, it’s unclear what impact this will have on E.U. policymaking. Earlier this week, RFE/RL columnist Valer Karbalevich said he doubts these developments will move the needle in Europe, concluding, “I wouldn’t say it’s changing their minds yet.”
