‘The endgame is here’ JPMorganChase’s new geopolitics center predicts an ‘imperfect deal’ will freeze the Russia-Ukraine war this year
Russia and Ukraine are expected to reach an “imperfect deal by end of Q2” that will freeze the ongoing war but stop short of a comprehensive peace agreement, according to a new analytical report from the geopolitics arm of JPMorganChase.
The investment bank’s newly launched Center for Geopolitics, which bills itself as “helping clients navigate global challenges,” says in its report that for Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, “the endgame is here.” At the same time, the analysis acknowledges that the durability of any settlement is contingent on “how satisfying” Ukrainian and Western concessions are to Putin and the strength of the security guarantees for Ukraine underwriting the deal.
The report goes on to analyze four possible outcomes of peace talks, drawing parallels to other conflicts and giving each one a probability score. Notably, none of the scenarios presented assume that Ukraine will regain full control over its territory or join NATO.
According to the analysis, the odds of both the “best case” and “worst case” scenarios for Ukraine — “South Korea” and “Belarus,” respectively — are 15 percent.
The “South Korea” scenario would see a European “tripwire force” stationed in Ukraine, with a U.S. backstop in the form of a “security promise on assistance and intelligence support,” ensuring the stability of the territory under Kyiv’s control. (This accounts for about 80 percent of Ukraine.)
In contrast, the “Belarus” scenario envisions the U.S. abandoning Ukraine (or being “perceived as switching sides”) and Europe failing to “step up” its support. “Russia [would] hold firm to its maximalist demands and seek Ukraine’s total capitulation, turning the country into a vassal state of Moscow,” the report suggests. “In this scenario, Russia will have effectively won the war, divided the West, and irrevocably upended the post-World War II world order.”
According to the analysts, the most likely scenario, with odds of 50 percent, is “Georgia” — one characterized as “not great.” In this scenario, Ukraine would receive neither a foreign troop deployment nor strong military support, putting the country at risk of continued instability, the derailment of E.U. and NATO integration, and a “gradual drift back into Russia’s orbit.”
The remaining scenario, “Israel,” is given 20 percent odds and deemed “still OK.” In this scenario, Ukraine would continue to receive “strong” and “enduring” Western military and economic support but “without a significant foreign troop presence” in the country. This, the report says, “would likely still provide Ukraine the space to turn itself into a fortress, pursue military modernization, and eventually establish its own deterrent. But war would always be on its doorstep.”
