Heavy losses all around As the new year begins, Russia and Ukraine are locked in bloody battles in the Kursk region, while Moscow pushes forward in Donbas
Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.
Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.
Key updates as of January 12, 2025
As the new year begins, Russian forces are pressing ahead with offensives planned by their commanders in late 2024. On December 31, Russian troops seized control of the industrial zone in Kurakhove and continued flanking Ukrainian units that had withdrawn from the strategically important city. South of the nearby city of Pokrovsk, Russian forces exploited a weak point in Ukraine’s defenses and crossed the Solona River with a substantial concentration of troops. Ukrainian forces had attempted to establish a defensive line along the river.
Meanwhile, a Russian group east of Pokrovsk has begun moving to encircle the city from the north. At the same time, Russian troops have nearly completed the capture of the sprawling Toretsk urban area north of Donetsk.
In other areas, Russian offensives have faced tougher resistance. In Russia’s Kursk region, fighting has reached a critical stage, with both sides suffering heavy losses in intense battles. While Russian forces have advanced toward key Ukrainian defensive positions despite ongoing counterattacks, they have yet to deliver a decisive blow.
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Russia
Kursk region
At the start of the year, Russian forces launched a new phase of their offensive to retake the city of Sudzha, advancing from multiple directions. The operation coincided with Ukrainian counterattacks, leading to a series of battles. While Russian troops generally controlled the battlefield, they likely also fell short of fully achieving their objectives.
The Russian offensive’s main target was the village of Malaya Loknya, northwest of Sudzha — a key position in Ukraine’s defensive network. Ukrainian forces here are threatening the northern flank of the Russian push along the Korenevo-Sudzha road, a campaign that has stretched on for months. From their stronghold in Malaya Loknya, Ukrainian troops previously hindered Russian forces during their capture of Novoivanovka and are now blocking their advance toward the Lebedevka–Sverdlikovo line. And one of the Ukrainian supply routes in the region runs through Sverdlikovo.
In December, Russian troops attempted to seize Malaya Loknya from the north but were repelled. Now, Russian forces — and, based on open-source videos, their North Korean allies — are advancing from the west and east. To the west, Russian troops recaptured the village of Kruglenkoye and reached Nikolaevka, on the outskirts of Malaya Loknya, but Ukrainian counterattacks halted their advance there.
In the northeast, the Russian offensive coincided with a localized Ukrainian counteroffensive toward the hamlet of Berdin. Ukrainian forces advanced several kilometers but suffered losses and were forced to retreat. At the same time, Russian troops recaptured the nearby village of Russkoye Porechnoye.
Although progress toward Malaya Loknya has been difficult, after finally taking Novoivanovka, Russian forces pushed westward toward Leonidovo. Even so, they remain far from reaching Sverdlikovo or the western outskirts of Sudzha. However, Russian troops have reached Sudzha’s southern outskirts, capturing part of the village of Makhnovka. They were unable to go any further, however, as Ukrainian defenses along the Smerditsa River halted their advance.
Ukraine
Kurakhove
On December 31, Russian forces captured the industrial zone in western Kurakhove, the last fortified position Ukrainian troops held in the city. However, some individual Ukrainian units remained in the area. Russian forces took Kurakhove by surrounding it from the south and north, cutting off key supply lines. Moreover, Ukrainian troops were forced to divert significant resources to counter Russian advances along the Sukhi Yaly River to the south and the Vovcha River to the north.
Although Ukrainian units have withdrawn from Kurakhove, they remain at risk of encirclement to the west of the city. Russian forces continue to push westward along the banks of the Sukhi Yaly and Vovcha rivers. While Ukrainian troops still control the only road connecting Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, the risk of it being cut off by Russian forces remains.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces are capitalizing on gains made during their 2024 offensives, exploiting a poorly defended gap between Pokrovsk and Kurakhove to push westward across a broad front.
At the same time, Russian units are attempting to encircle Pokrovsk from the southwest, possibly signaling the start of an operation to seize the city. Ukrainian troops tried to hold them off at the Solona River, but Russian forces managed to cross to the northern bank in several places. For weeks, Ukrainian forces tried to dislodge Russian troops from their foothold near the village of Shevchenko, only to be outflanked as Russian units crossed the narrow river at other points.
Russian forces are now within three to four kilometers (two to two-and-a-half miles) of Pokrovsk’s southern outskirts and three kilometers from Udachne, a village west of Pokrovsk near the country’s largest coking coal mine. The Russian offensive is aimed directly at this village.
As Ukrainian forces concentrate on repelling the southern assault on Pokrovsk, another Russian group has intensified operations to the east. After months of relative quiet, Russian troops have launched an offensive near the village of Vozdvyzhenka, advancing toward the road connecting Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. This group will likely attempt to encircle Pokrovsk and its satellite towns from the northeast.
If Russian forces cut off the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka road, defending Kostiantynivka would become far more difficult. Meanwhile, Russian units nearing the final stages of capturing the Toretsk urban area may soon approach Kostiantynivka from the south.
Toretsk
After months of fierce fighting, Russian forces have broken through Ukrainian defenses in the center of Toretsk. They’ve now pushed through the city to its northern outskirts, where pockets of Ukrainian defense remain only in buildings and on the spoil tips of the mines. Russian troops are also advancing north along the Donetsk–Sloviansk railway on Toretsk’s western outskirts.
Ukrainian forces will likely attempt to establish a defensive line north of Toretsk to prevent Russian troops from advancing toward Kostiantynivka and Chasiv Yar from the south.
Kupyansk
Russian forces are pressing ahead with their offensive toward the Oskil River across a broad front, though attacks by several groups appear uncoordinated.
North of Kupyansk, Russian troops have crossed the river and established a stable foothold on the western bank. From there, they likely aim to advance south toward the western part of Kupyansk. For now, however, they remain bogged down in battles further north, around the village of Dvorichna.
Russian forces reached the Oskil River to the south of the city back in the fall. They’re now attempting to advance along the river toward Kupyansk and, in the opposite direction, toward Borova. Farther south, Russian units advancing along several axes have yet to reach the river and are unlikely to do so anytime soon.
The broader objective of these offensives — reaching the city of Lyman, where the Oskil meets the Siverskyi Donets River, and eventually the area around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk — appears unrealistic given the current balance of forces.
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