‘The war has become routine in people’s minds’ Sociologist Yevhen Holovakha on how Ukrainians’ views on the war have changed after three years
Yevhen Holovakha, one of Ukraine’s most respected sociologists and the director of the Institute of Sociology at the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, spoke to Ukrainska Pravda about what public opinion polls reveal about Ukrainians’ views on the war, their openness to negotiations and potential concessions to Russia, the war’s impact on their mental health, and their outlook on the future. Meduza shares the polling data Holovakha cited and summarizes his interpretations of the findings.
On Ukrainians’ confidence in victory
In December 2022, three-quarters of survey respondents were completely confident in Ukraine’s victory, with a total of 96 percent expressing at least some degree of confidence. Less than one percent had no confidence at all. By November 2024, the share of those fully confident in Ukraine’s victory had dropped to 36 percent, with 31 percent somewhat confident, and five percent expressing no confidence.
These figures align with Ukrainians’ perceptions of the country’s future. In 2022, only two percent viewed it as “rather hopeless,” while by September 2024, that number had risen to 15 percent. “You can see the disappointment among some people,” sociologist Yevhen Holovakha told Ukrainska Pravda, adding,
But I wouldn’t predict widespread despair for 2025 — unless, of course, the new [U.S.] administration were to say, “Accept Putin’s demands, or we’ll cut off your lifeline.” Such a scenario could significantly impact public sentiment.
On negotiations with Russia
In May 2022, just 10 percent of Ukrainians were willing to give up some Ukrainian territories for the sake of achieving peace as soon as possible and preserving the country’s independence, while 82 percent were opposed. By December 2024, those willing to make such concessions had risen to 38 percent, while 51 percent remained opposed.
“The share of Ukrainians willing to freeze the conflict at the current front line and begin negotiations is also growing. If this trend continues, 2025 will see an increase in people who agree to stop [the fighting], though they still won’t form a majority,” Holovakha said.
The same study asked Ukrainians to express their views on three potential options for a peace settlement. The largest share of respondents supported a scenario where Ukraine loses the territories occupied by Russia (without officially recognizing them as Russian) while gaining NATO and E.U. membership. Another option, which differed only in that Ukraine first recaptures the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, fell from the top choice in June 2024 to second place by December.
On elections in Ukraine
A recent sociological study, conducted in the fall of 2024, shows that only 28 percent of Ukrainians support holding presidential or parliamentary elections before the war ends. “Time is not on the side of the ruling political party in Ukraine,” Holovakha said, referring to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People party. He continued,
But there is no public demand [for elections now]. Once martial law is lifted, voters will primarily focus on candidates from the military and volunteer communities — two institutions that currently have the highest levels of public support. The military has already put forward its candidate. The latest poll shows that [former Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valerii] Zaluzhnyi enjoys very high trust ratings.
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On mobilization
In February 2024, only 19 percent of Ukrainians felt the level of mobilization in the country was too high, while 36 percent considered it insufficient. By September 2024, the share of those who thought it was too high had risen by seven percent, while the share of those who saw it as insufficient had dropped by 11 percent.
The same survey found that nearly a third of Ukrainians know someone who, due to mobilization, quit their job and is now working illegally. Holovakha said this percentage is a very significant. “For a wave of civic awareness related to the war to emerge, we would need the kind of shock we experienced at the start of the full-scale invasion. Now, unfortunately, the war has become routine in people’s minds,” he explained.
On Ukrainians’ psychological state
At the end of 2022, only 12 percent of Ukrainians living in territory controlled by Ukraine exhibited high levels of distress. In an October 2024 study, that figure had risen to 27 percent. In 2025, it could climb even higher, but Holovakha believes Ukrainians will remain resilient:
If we are preparing for a future scenario with intense fighting and the loss of some territory in southern and eastern Ukraine, we must recognize that people’s mental health will decline, and with it, their ability to resist. However, in my opinion, our resilience will hold through 2025. I also believe it will last into 2026, when Russia will begin to crumble because it won’t be able to sustain itself with enough weapons and manpower.
On the return of displaced Ukrainians
According to the United Nations, more than 6.2 million Ukrainian refugees were living in Europe as of December 2024. However, Holovakha expects up to half of them to return one day:
It’s hard to predict how many of the millions who left Ukraine after February 24, 2022, will return. Clearly, with each passing year of war, we lose more of that potential, as more displaced people adapt to life abroad. […] I believe that if the current hot phase of the war lasts up to five years, we can expect 30 to 50 percent of those who left [following the start of the full-scale invasion] to return to the country.
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