A deadly freeze Experts lay out three grim scenarios for winter in Ukraine as Russia pounds the country’s energy infrastructure
After more than a thousand days of full-scale war, Ukraine has endured two winters of relentless attacks on its energy infrastructure, coming perilously close to a humanitarian catastrophe. As the third winter approaches, the situation is even more dire: in recent months, Russian forces have launched sustained, targeted attacks on Ukraine’s power plants. At best, the country faces daily planned blackouts, even during freezing temperatures. At worst, a wave of deaths could follow as people freeze in unheated homes. Meduza explores expert assessments of three scenarios — from challenging to catastrophic — to better understand what Ukrainians may face this winter.
In its latest report, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) revised its estimate of the country’s energy deficit, lowering the July projection of seven percent to five percent. According to the NBU, this adjustment reflects improved weather conditions, faster-than-expected repairs at energy facilities between August and October, and businesses shifting to self-generated power. The deficit is expected to remain around six percent next year and could decrease to three percent by 2026. However, even a smaller shortfall remains a serious obstacle to GDP recovery. Importing electricity and relying on expensive autonomous power solutions — measures many businesses have been forced to adopt — continue to drive up costs and fuel inflation.
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Planned power outages, another consequence of the deficit, are disrupting daily life and contributing to another issue: population outflow. “A prolonged war and a significant energy deficit will drive sustained external migration and, over time, hinder the return of Ukrainians to the country,” the NBU warned. This concern was realized over the summer, when more people than expected left Ukraine as energy issues worsened. With winter fast approaching, experts are looking at three possible scenarios for Ukraine’s energy situation — none of them promising. Here they are, from bad to worse.
Scenario 1. Bad
If there aren’t any more large-scale missile attacks on Ukraine’s power grid and the winter is only moderately cold, experts from the Ukrainian think tank DiXi Group expect an energy deficit of up to two gigawatts. Even in this scenario, hourly power outage schedules and measures to reduce electricity consumption may be necessary.
“If thermal generation or hydropower plants can be restored, they could provide additional capacity, keeping the deficit minimal and limited to hours of peak demand,” explained Olena Lapenko, an energy security expert at DiXi.
Scenario 2. Worse
In colder weather, even without new Russian strikes, higher energy consumption could push the deficit to 3.4 gigawatts — or up to five gigawatts if energy imports falter or restored generation becomes unstable. “In this case, strict power restrictions and hourly outages will be unavoidable,” the DiXi Group warned. Lapenko added that if temperatures drop to -10 to -15 degrees Celsius (14–5 degrees Fahrenheit), deficits could arise even during off-peak hours, necessitating emergency measures or extended blackout schedules that stretch “not only into the evening but also overnight.”
Scenario 3. Catastrophic
The worst-case scenario, and one that experts fear is all too plausible, involves renewed Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy system. Even if the winter isn’t severe, such strikes would trigger emergency shutdowns, which are far worse than planned blackouts, according to the DiXi Group.
A combination of cold weather and destructive attacks on critical infrastructure could result in outages lasting up to 20 hours a day, warned Oleksandr Kharchenko, managing director of the Energy Industry Research Center and an adviser to Ukraine’s government on energy, in an interview with Politico. Serhii Kovalenko, CEO of the Ukrainian energy company YASNO, expressed similar concerns, saying that Ukrainians might receive electricity for just five to six hours a day.
“The worst-case scenario is grim,” concluded experts from the U.K.’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). Significant damage to energy infrastructure could leave major Ukrainian cities without electricity, water supply, sewage systems, or heating. “The past two winters have been mild in Ukraine. A harsh winter season, with temperatures dropping into the negative double digits, risks resulting — by Ukrainian estimates — in millions of Ukrainians seeking refuge in Europe,” researchers Jack Watling and Darya Dolzikova wrote.
An anonymous senior U.S. official offered an even bleaker assessment to Politico: “People will die in their homes because Russia is taking out the energy infrastructure.”
