Putin administration hoped a Harris win in the U.S. election would lead to another ‘January 6’ but has ‘soft spot’ for Trump, Kremlin insiders say

Back in September, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that the Kremlin was hoping for a Harris victory in the U.S. presidential election. Though the statement drew widespread skepticism, there may be some logic behind it, given the Kremlin’s expectations of what could unfold if she won. Kremlin insiders told Meduza that Putin’s political team was banking on Republicans refusing to accept the results and sparking protests that could lead to civil unrest — conveniently diverting attention from the war in Ukraine. For more insight into how Putin’s administration views Trump’s victory, Meduza special correspondent Andrey Pertsev spoke with sources inside the Kremlin.

In the lead-up to the U.S. presidential election, the Kremlin’s political team hoped the results might spark protests reminiscent of the January 2021 riot at the Capitol, insiders told Meduza.

“Society there is even more polarized now, and back then, protests escalated to the point of storming the Capitol. Protests could have been a logical outcome of that polarization [after this election]. The main bet wasn’t so much on any particular candidate winning but on the losing side refusing to accept the results,” said a source close to Putin’s administration. Another Kremlin insider confirmed this account.

According to these sources, the Kremlin hoped such a crisis would force American authorities to focus on domestic issues rather than their standoff with Russia. However, that bet doesn’t seem to have paid off, as U.S. media reports show Democrats are preparing to concede defeat.

For a long time, Kremlin insiders told Meduza, Russian officials saw Kamala Harris’s victory as the most likely, “baseline” scenario, and expected Republicans to reject the outcome and stage protests. Yet a few weeks ago, they shifted their view toward Trump, citing Harris’s “lackluster campaign,” despite U.S. experts and polls indicating both candidates had roughly equal chances.

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Both sources close to the president’s office noted that Russian elites generally have a “soft spot” for Trump. One of them explained:

In comparison, Kamala Harris “was perceived as someone totally incomprehensible,” the source added.

A senior regional official who spoke to Meduza on condition of anonymity said that he’s also sympathetic to Trump, whom he sees as a “flashy politician” who “might try to resolve the conflict [with Ukraine].” A State Duma deputy from the United Russia party echoed this sentiment: “The mood is like, what if? What if he really tries? The current president [Joe] Biden or [Vice President Kamala] Harris certainly wouldn’t make any gestures towards Russia.”

However, a source close to the Russian government and one of the sources close to the Kremlin expressed doubt that Trump’s election can drastically change the relationship between Russia and the U.S.

“The [reason for optimism] is not very clear. Trump is an impulsive person — he wants to get his way,” said the source close to the government. “Maybe he’ll have some impact on Ukraine, but a deal means making concessions, including from Russia. And so far, it doesn’t look like President [Putin] is ready for any concessions. Trump may have a businessman’s approach, guided by pragmatism. But the people on our side aren’t businessmen — that’s the issue.”

A source close to the Kremlin summed up the situation like this:

Please note: The sources cited in this article do not make key decisions about Russia’s foreign policy. Their statements represent only their personal views and their impressions of their colleagues’ perspectives.