‘A cover-up or a strategic step’ Vladimir Putin reportedly discussed Navalny’s exchange just hours before his death

On February 26, Alexey Navalny’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya, said that Vladimir Putin had killed the opposition leader because negotiations for his release in a prisoner swap were nearing completion. According to Navalnaya, this deal would have seen Navalny and “two American citizens” be traded for Russian hitman Vadim Krasikov, who is serving a life sentence in Germany. On Friday, the independent Russian news outlet Agentstvo reported new details about the planned exchange, citing four sources familiar with the negotiations. Here’s what they said.

Hours before Alexey Navalny’s death, Vladimir Putin held a meeting with Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich in which they discussed Navalny’s possible release in a prisoner exchange, independent media outlet Agentstvo has reported, citing two sources familiar with the details of the conversation.

According to one of the sources, Putin verbally agreed to a prisoner swap. Journalist Christo Grozev, who is working with Navalny’s team to investigate the circumstances of the politician’s death, told Agentstvo that he had also heard that Putin had agreed to the deal. “From what we knew in the final days before the murder, we had the impression that he (to the surprise even of the negotiators on the Russian side) had agreed,” Grozev said.

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Now, however, Grozev believes that Putin’s approval of the deal was an act. “I think this was either a way to cover up the plans for the murder or a strategic step intended to bring the negotiations nearly to completion, [with Putin] thinking that since Germany had agreed in principle to give up Krasikov, they would, in Navalny’s absence, also agree to exchange him for another prisoner who’s less important to Putin,” Grozev explained.

Another source characterized Putin’s acceptance of the deal as follows: “Learning that the West was ready to hand over Vadim Krasikov to Russia, Putin cold-bloodedly ordered Navalny’s murder.” A source who knows Abramovich personally was more cautious with his speculation, saying it’s important to wait for the results of the investigation before drawing conclusions about how the situation unfolded. 

Agentstvo’s sources also described the process that led to the deal, which they said began in the spring of 2023. Over the summer, according to the sources, Germany agreed to an exchange for Navalny in principle, but the talks stalled after The Wall Street Journal reported that a deal was underway to trade Krasikov for Navalny. The talks resumed in December, the sources said, when Navalny was transferred to a remote Arctic prison in Russia’s Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. At that point, Agentstvo reports, Navalny’s family “convinced the West that preparations for something bad were underway.”

A final exchange plan, according to two of Agentstvo’s sources, was agreed upon at a meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in early February.

Agentstvo’s sources also said that the Kremlin was ready to give up jailed U.S. citizens Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan in addition to Navalny. In exchange, according to two sources, Western countries were ready to hand over convicted assassin Vadim Krasikov, who is serving a life sentence in Germany, as well as a Russian citizen imprisoned in the U.S. One source said that Vladislav Klyushin, a Russian businessman convicted in the U.S. for hacking and insider trading, was mentioned during the negotiations.