Fueling discontent How Kyiv hopes to turn refinery strikes into a crisis at Russian gas stations
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In parts of Russia, long lines at gas stations and caps on fuel purchases are becoming routine. Since the spring, Ukraine has intensified drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. In May alone, Kyiv hit eight of the country’s 10 largest refineries, according to Bloomberg. Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said that Russian refining volumes fell from roughly 5.3 million barrels per day in March to about 4.3 million in the last week of May — a drop of around 20 percent. Yet Russian oil exports have reached their highest levels since the start of the full-scale war.
If Ukraine wants to cut off the Kremlin’s oil revenue, why focus on refineries instead of the ports and terminals that ship crude and petroleum products abroad?
On a recent episode of Meduza’s daily podcast, Vakulenko suggested the answer may have less to do with exports than with pressure on Russia’s domestic fuel supply. Refineries don’t just process oil for export — they produce the gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel that keep the country running. “The logic is probably more about bringing the pain of the war home to Russians,” he said.
Hitting the hydrocrackers
Ukraine’s refinery campaign appears to be evolving. The number of attacks is high, but not unprecedented. What’s changed is how effective they’ve become. “It looks like more drones are getting through now,” Vakulenko said. He also believes Ukrainian forces have become more deliberate about what they target once they reach a refinery.
Earlier strikes often hit primary distillation units — the first stage of processing crude oil. More recently, satellite imagery shows fires at secondary processing equipment, including hydrocrackers and hydrogen production units. These systems convert intermediate petroleum products into gasoline and other finished fuels.
“They’re more complex chemical reactors,” Vakulenko said. Unlike basic refining equipment, they run at high temperatures and pressures and take far longer to repair.
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‘People are on edge’
Despite the drop in refining, Russia hasn’t seen the same widespread panic at the pump that hit last August and September — even though production was higher then, at around 5 million barrels per day. Part of the reason is timing. Demand is still relatively low, with the summer travel season getting off to a sluggish start and the fall harvest still months away. Russia also entered the year with reserves built up over the winter.
Although Russia’s fuel production is falling, the acute shortages appearing at certain gas stations have more to do with distribution than with a nationwide supply problem, according to Vakulenko. Occupied Crimea has been particularly vulnerable. Ukrainian strikes have disrupted supply routes through occupied southern Ukraine, hit the transshipment port in Feodosia, and destroyed railway ferries that operated across the Kerch Strait. And Moscow appears reluctant to run highly flammable fuel trains across the Crimean Bridge, which remains exposed to air attacks.
Even so, the gap between supply and demand is narrowing, and concerns are growing. “People are on edge,” Vakulenko said. “The preconditions [for a national shortage] are perhaps even stronger now than they were last fall.”
The home front
If Ukraine’s goal were simply to reduce Russian export earnings, Vakulenko said, refineries wouldn’t be the most obvious target. “Attacks on ports are much more productive in that respect,” he said.
Damage to refineries doesn’t stop Russia from exporting crude. In some cases, less refining can mean more crude available for export. The pressure instead shows up at home, in a fuel market that depends on refineries to turn crude into usable products.
Russia already spends heavily to subsidize domestic fuel prices, compensating oil companies for selling fuel at home instead of exporting it. At a time when wartime spending is straining the federal budget, Vakulenko said, keeping that up is getting harder. “The situation with government finances is very bad,” he said.
For now, most Russians can still fill their tanks. Whether that remains true may depend less on the damage already done than on how long Ukraine can keep up the current pace of strikes. “If this campaign continues for three or four months,” Vakulenko said, “the effects could be quite noticeable.”
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