This was Russia today Monday, February 23, 2026

Howdy, folks. Today, we’re reviewing a recent essay by Alexander Baunov, who argues that both Moscow and Kyiv have sacrificed too much to settle the war without big demands — and that Russia’s real goal at the negotiating table isn’t a territorial settlement but a permanent legal right to intervene in Ukrainian political life. Read on for news of a whistleblower’s account of systematic abuse within a Brazilian-led unit fighting under Ukraine’s military intelligence, and for reporting on how Moscow is increasingly outsourcing its European shadow war to criminal networks and paid civilian recruits. Yours, Kevin.

The real fight is over Russia’s right to intervene in Ukraine forever. Both sides have invested too much to settle cheaply, Alexander Baunov argues.

As the war between Russia and Ukraine enters its fifth year, the negotiations meant to end it have taken on the same quality as the fighting itself — endless, grinding, and seemingly without resolution. Both sides have invested so much that neither can afford, psychologically or politically, to settle for a weak return; the war has become its own currency, and everyone is afraid of a weak exchange rate. Alexander Baunov, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, addresses this dilemma in a new essay for Meduza — summarized below.

Uneven talks: Negotiations have splintered into several parallel tracks — military, territorial, economic, and political — with uneven results. The military track is the most “functional,” with technicians on both sides working through the mechanics of a hypothetical ceasefire. On the territorial track, Ukraine has edged toward flexibility, with Kyiv privately acknowledging it may need to cede the remaining portions of the Donetsk region, floating the idea of a U.S.-administered special economic zone in the areas it vacates. However, Russia has shown no interest. The economic track, meanwhile, has produced what Baunov calls Moscow’s fantastical promise of a $14-trillion mega-deal, which he treats as a window into Kremlin psychology rather than a serious proposal.

Putin’s real agenda: The political track is where Russia’s real agenda comes into focus. What Moscow wants is not a territorial settlement but a written, durable mechanism for interference in Ukrainian political life, encompassing language policy, media, the Orthodox Church, historical memory, and elections. Russia has repeatedly floated the idea of U.N.-administered external governance of Ukraine. The Kremlin has also demanded a place among the postwar security guarantors, explicitly modeling the demand on the 1960 Cyprus arrangement, in which Greece, Turkey, and Britain were named guarantors with the right of armed intervention. Turkey exercised that right in 1974, annexing a third of the island. Baunov makes clear that Russia envisions something similar: a legal pretext for future military intervention, suspended over Ukrainian society “like a sword.”

The maximizing trap: This explains the central dysfunction Baunov identifies: Every time Ukraine shows flexibility — under pressure from Washington and European partners — Russia raises its demands rather than reciprocating. Meanwhile, Ukrainian negotiators fear that any agreement reached now will be forgotten later, as was the case with Bosnia and Kosovo. So they are holding out for the most binding guarantees possible, including European Union membership. Both sides are maximizing their demands because each fears that stopping the war will devalue the only leverage they have left.

The exhaustion factor: Baunov argues that a three-way summit among Putin, Zelensky, and Trump remains possible, noting that Trump’s peacemaking has historically worked where conflicts were already spent. Both sides show signs of exhaustion. But Putin may calculate that if no grand bargain materializes, escalation is easier to sell domestically than a settlement that looks like failure — and that Trump, facing the same problem, might arrive at the same calculus.

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News you don’t want to miss today

🇧🇷 Whistleblower exposes deadly abuse in Brazilian-led unit in Ukraine 🪖

A former fighter has publicly confirmed that severe beatings and torture were routinely used as discipline within a Brazilian-led military unit operating under Ukraine’s military intelligence, corroborating allegations surrounding the recent death of a 23-year-old man.

• A culture of violence: While local police initially classified the volunteer’s death as negligent homicide, the whistleblower’s detailed testimony and leaked evidence point to systemic abuse ordered by the unit’s commander, prompting a formal internal investigation. | The Kyiv Independent

🚕 Russia deploys criminal networks as European shadow war escalates 🇪🇺

Moscow is increasingly using criminal intermediaries, hackers, and paid civilian recruits in Europe, with a former taxi driver from Krasnodar emerging as a key organizer in recent arson and sabotage plots.

• A tactical shift: After European countries expelled hundreds of Russian diplomats and crippled traditional spy networks, Russian intelligence appears to have turned more heavily to proxies who can move more freely across Europe, including in plots involving incendiary devices in cargo shipments. | The New York Times

🛰️ From Cold War interceptors to Ukraine: how Russia came to park spy satellites next to the West’s most sensitive tech in orbit | Russian satellites are reportedly maneuvering near Western commercial spacecraft to intercept unencrypted signals and gather intelligence for potential cyberattacks against European and Ukrainian infrastructure.

🇺🇸 A Russian investigator worked with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to rescue child sexual abuse victims. Now he’s charged with treason. | Russian operative Ivan Semenikhin, who collaborated with a U.S. federal agent to rescue abducted and exploited children, now faces secret treason charges that colleagues fear are a retroactive criminalization of standard international law enforcement cooperation.

⛔ Russia reportedly restricts recruitment of foreign fighters from dozens of ‘friendly’ countries | Independent media outlet iStories reports that Russian military recruiters have received a “stop-list” banning citizens from 43 countries, including several “friendly” nations and those that have formally demanded an end to the recruitment of their nationals, from enlisting to fight in Ukraine.

🚨 The Kremlin spent years building a messenger to replace Telegram. Now it is reportedly telling soldiers the substitute is too insecure to use at the front. | Russian military authorities are reportedly discouraging frontline troops from using Max, a government-developed alternative to Telegram, due to concerns that the new platform lacks sufficient security for combat zones.

👮 Russia charges Telegram founder Pavel Durov with facilitating terrorism as the Kremlin escalates its crackdown on the app | The FSB has reportedly opened a criminal investigation into Pavel Durov for allegedly facilitating terrorist activity, claiming that Telegram’s refusal to cooperate with security services has turned the messenger into a primary communication tool for international radicals and foreign intelligence agencies.

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