This was Russia today Friday, February 13, 2026

Howdy, folks. Today, we’re reviewing a recent essay by military expert Michael Kofman, who argues that the demise of arms control agreements between Russia and the U.S. is unlikely to trigger a new nuclear arms race. Read on for news of Marco Rubio’s diplomatic snub in Germany and a new profile of Volodymyr Zelensky by journalist Simon Shuster. Yours, Kevin.

Please note: Meduza’s daily newsletter will be off on Monday and return on Tuesday, February 17, after Presidents’ Day in the U.S.

Michael Kofman on why the end of U.S.–Russia arms control won’t spark the arms race many analysts predict

In a recent blog post, military expert Michael Kofman argues that the expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) does not herald the arms race many analysts predict. While conventional wisdom suggests unconstrained nuclear competition between the United States and Russia is now inevitable, Kofman contends that Russia faces severe industrial and economic constraints that will limit its ability to expand strategic forces. The resulting dynamic will be shaped more by these constraints and evolving doctrinal thinking than by Cold War-style quantitative competition.

Despite Moscow’s apparent advantage in nuclear modernization and warhead production capacity, Russia struggles with expanding delivery systems — the missiles, submarines, and bombers that actually carry nuclear weapons. Kofman notes that programs to replace aging intercontinental ballistic missiles are years behind schedule, submarine production proceeds at a glacial pace, and bomber manufacturing is nearly nonexistent. Russia’s exotic nuclear systems — the Poseidon nuclear torpedo, the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile, the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle — are “boutique” capabilities designed to hedge against potential U.S. breakthroughs in missile defense, not game-changers in the strategic balance. Russia can upload more warheads onto existing missiles relatively cheaply, but this doesn’t significantly change U.S. force requirements because it doesn’t alter the number of launchers Washington must hold at risk. The real imbalance exists in non-strategic nuclear weapons, which were never constrained by New START and offer Moscow its most cost-effective path for expansion.

Industrial and economic constraints will limit Russian options, Kofman argues, and internal doctrinal thinking doesn’t indicate force requirements will suddenly surge beyond current levels. Russia’s economy is stagnating and facing budget crises, while the military already consumes a massive share of government spending. Any significant expansion of strategic forces would divert resources from reconstituting conventional military capabilities after the war in Ukraine. 

Equally significant is the evolution of Russian nuclear doctrine away from the Cold War quantitative focus on matching U.S. arsenals warhead for warhead. Moscow’s strategic thinking now emphasizes maintaining enough weapons to ensure first-strike survivability and guaranteed retaliation — a threshold that doesn’t require massive force expansion. As a result, Russia will work to maintain deployed warhead parity with the U.S. to preserve Soviet-era prestige rather than engage in quantitative competition beyond its economic means and doctrinal needs.

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News you don’t want to miss today

🇺🇦 Zelensky makes a high-stakes pitch to Trump as a ticking clock looms 🇺🇸

Volodymyr Zelensky is framing a peace deal as a historic legacy play for Donald Trump, urging the American president to secure a victory before the upcoming midterm elections, journalist and Zelensky biographer Simon Shuster reports in a new article for The Atlantic.

• A calculated performance: While Zelensky is publicly demonstrating willingness to engage with Trump’s proposals and explore compromises, he remains defiant behind the scenes. His team is considering options like a national referendum on any peace deal, but Zelensky insists he would “rather take no deal at all” than force Ukrainians to accept “belittling terms.”
• The non-negotiable demand: Zelensky maintains that a ceasefire is worthless without written security guarantees from the U.S. and Europe. Despite the Ukrainian president’s public claims that an agreement is “100-percent ready,” key details remain unresolved, including whether the U.S. would actually defend Ukraine against future Russian attacks. As the midterm campaign season threatens to divert Trump’s attention, Zelensky faces growing pressure from his own advisers to close a deal this spring, even as he digs in on his core conditions. | The Atlantic

🇺🇸 Rubio skips Ukraine meeting with European leaders in Munich 🇪🇺🇺🇦

The U.S. secretary of state abruptly canceled a high-level “Berlin Format” meeting with European allies, signaling a growing rift and a potential shift toward a more unilateral American approach to the conflict.

• A diplomatic snub: While Rubio remains in Munich for other meetings and is still scheduled to address the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, his last-minute cancellation of the Ukraine-specific session — labeled “insane” by one diplomat — highlights European fears that Washington is turning its back on its historic alliances. | Financial Times

✊ Ukrainian resistance to occupation has gone underground after years of brutal repression. Scholar Jade McGlynn explains how hatred — not hope — now drives those still fighting. | McGlynn explains that the Russian occupation has evolved from haphazard control to a technocratic police state enforcing “Russian civic identity,” with resisters now operating through isolated intelligence networks driven by rage rather than expectations of liberation.

🥒 Sky-high cucumber prices are rattling Russian shoppers. The spike might be temporary, but the inflation problem isn’t. | While the vegetable price spike is expected to ease by spring, Russia’s broader inflation battle may force authorities to choose between economic growth and budget stability amid warnings of a potential crisis.

🙏 Putin’s ‘Temple of War’ was just the beginning. Russia is building churches, mosques, and even underground chapels to convince the nation that the invasion of Ukraine is sacred. | Religious leaders frame the construction as memorializing “heroes” who died defending Russia against Western civilization’s moral decay, despite local opposition to many projects.

👮 A Russian blogger documented horrific conditions at a local morgue — and police promptly beat him up and threw him in jail | Special forces arrested and assaulted Artem Pavlechko for two days before releasing him, while prosecutors who initially inspected the facility following his complaint have announced no findings.

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