This was Russia today Wednesday, January 7, 2026

Howdy, folks! Today, I’ll take you through an excerpt from Konstantin Gaaze’s new book, which features a wild — and possibly apocryphal — anecdote regarding Viktor Yanukovych’s “escape” from Ukraine. Stick around for a look at Russia’s next nuclear opportunity in Vietnam. Yours, Kevin.

The annexation was no accident: Konstantin Gaaze examines the Kremlin’s year-long plan for Crimea

Last week, Meduza published an excerpt from Kuda Dreyfuyut Diktatury? (Where Are Dictatorships Drifting?), a new book by sociologist Konstantin Gaaze. In it, Gaaze follows the historical evolution of the Russian autocracy to its “logical conclusion” in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, arguing that Moscow’s annexation of Crimea was a methodically prepared contingency years in the making. Gaaze traces the roots of the crisis to late 2012, when technical arguments over trade protections gave way to Putin’s festering imperial grievance against Ukraine’s Western reorientation. 

In early 2013, when European officials presented Kyiv with an “either-or” choice between the Eurasian Customs Union and the E.U. Association Agreement, Putin viewed it as a civilizational ultimatum. He asserted that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people” whose shared destiny is rooted in the Russian Empire. Crucially, Putin began to see the rejection of Moscow’s economic “gifts” as a formal declaration of war that justified secret preparations for the armed seizure of Crimea.

In Gaaze’s telling, the strategic decision to seize Crimea was finalized in late March 2013 — a year before “little green men” landed on the peninsula — following a failed diplomatic attempt by E.U. Commission President José Manuel Barroso to bridge the divide. Following this pivot, the Kremlin initiated a dual-track strategy:

• Military preparation: Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu began modeling an armed conflict with Ukraine and its European allies while conducting maritime landing exercises in Anapa that simulated a Crimean invasion. These maneuvers included rehearsing missile strikes and air defense scenarios specifically framed around a Russian occupation.
• Political engineering: The Kremlin staged Vladislav Surkov’s departure from the government to conceal his key role in Putin’s plans for Ukraine, which involved leveraging Surkov’s personal relationship with President Yanukovych.

In late 2013, Putin intensified economic pressure on Kyiv, using trade blockades to “torment” Ukrainian exporters as a threatening “rehearsal” for the consequences of choosing Europe over Russia. On November 9, 2013, Putin reportedly “revealed his cards” in a secret meeting with Yanukovych, demanding that the Ukrainian president freeze the E.U. agreement in exchange for a massive aid package or face Crimea’s immediate seizure. Under this proposal, Surkov was tasked with coordinating the violent suppression of protests to prevent a “new Maidan” in Ukraine.

Finally, Gaaze recounts Yanukovych’s extraction from Ukraine in February 2014, describing a wild story from “former high-ranking Russian security officials” about soldiers tricking the Ukrainian president’s security detail into surrendering him to a Russian military convoy that immediately sped away. Gaaze argues that Putin likely “saved or kidnapped” Yanukovych to secure his signature on the appointment of Sergey Aksyonov as Crimea’s prime minister, thereby providing a thin legal veneer for the subsequent plebiscite and annexation.

Get your Meduza merch!

We have a tradition here at Meduza: every year on our birthday, we update the merch in our online store, Magaz. In 2026, we’ll turn 12. Here’s a look at the latest clothing and accessories you can buy to rep Meduza and support our work.

News you don’t want to miss today

🇻🇳 Vietnam pivots to Russia as Japan exits nuclear deal 🇷🇺⚛️🇯🇵

Facing blackouts that threaten manufacturing giants like Samsung, Hanoi is urgently reshaping its energy strategy, pressing to finalize a nuclear agreement with Moscow this month after Tokyo withdrew from a parallel project.

• A race for power: Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has ordered officials to wrap up talks with Russia by January and find new partners to replace Japan, whose ambassador cited unmanageable timelines. As extreme weather and industrial demand strain the grid, Vietnam is scrambling to revive its nuclear program and bring plants online after 2031. | Reuters

🇺🇸 U.S. seizes sanctioned tanker after weeks-long Atlantic pursuit and brief standoff with Russian naval escort | The “Bella 1” and “Sofia” were intercepted on Wednesday under “Operation Southern Spear,” a U.S. campaign targeting the illicit transport of Iranian, Venezuelan, and Russian oil.

👮 Riot police raid Moscow punk concert and search attendees’ phones for anti-war content | Security forces reportedly beat attendees subscribed to Ukrainian channels and pressured others to sign military service contracts after flagging “undesirable” content on their devices.

☦️ Pay to pray: How the Russian Orthodox Church is making faith more expensive | Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian parishes have sharply raised “donation” fees for essential rites like funerals and baptisms to offset soaring operational costs and meet diocesan financial demands.

🇺🇦 What does Zelensky’s new chief of staff, Kyrylo Budanov, bring to the peace talks? | Leveraging established back-channel contacts with Russian intelligence and a pragmatic reputation among U.S. officials, Budanov aims to navigate high-stakes negotiations during a renewed diplomatic push by the Trump administration, succeeding where his controversial predecessor failed.

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