The Real Russia. Today. Wednesday, July 3, 2024

The war in Ukraine

• 🚨 Russian attack in Dnipro kills five: Russian forces carried out a missile and drone strike in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Wednesday morning, officials reported. According to Ukrainian Presidency Volodymyr Zelensky, five people were killed in the attack. Local authorities reported that at least 53 people were injured.

🗓️ New reports emerge about Trump’s plans for NATO and Ukraine

Citing multiple former national security officials and defense experts familiar with Donald Trump’s and his advisors’ plans regarding NATO should he win a second term, Politico reported on Wednesday that the former U.S. president would undertake a “radical reorientation” of the alliance. While Washington would maintain its air power, bases, and naval forces in Germany, England, and Turkey, “the bulk of infantry, armor, logistics and artillery would ultimately pass from American to European hands,” the sources said. The changes would see the U.S. relinquish its role as the “primary provider of combat power in Europe,” according to defense expert Dan Caldwell.

The Trump team also plans to impose a two-tier system by which NATO members who spend less than two percent of their GDP on defense “wouldn’t enjoy the defense largess and security guarantee of the United States,” an unnamed “Trump-aligned national security expert” said.

Two sources told Politico that Trump is considering a deal with Vladimir Putin that would allow Russia to keep some Ukrainian territory in exchange for a commitment by NATO not to expand into Ukraine and Georgia. Trump has previously vowed to end the war “within 24 hours” if elected again.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, told Bloomberg in an interview published Wednesday that Trump should reveal his plan “today” if he knows how to end the war. “As the president of a country at war — not a theoretical person but a real person — I would like to be prepared,” Zelensky said. “We are 40 million, we’re a big country, […] so I would like to understand what it would mean to finish the war fast.”

🛩 F-16s are coming to Ukraine. Meduza breaks down how the military plans to use them and what impact they could have on the battlefield. (16-min read)

European countries are set to deliver the first F-16s fighter jets to Ukraine before summer’s end. Ukraine and its Western allies have ambitious plans for these warplanes: they’re not just an upgrade for the Ukrainian Air Force but also a critical tool in the battle for air superiority. However, modern aircraft alone likely won’t be a silver bullet for Ukraine. Meduza breaks down the two main ways Ukraine’s Air Force plans to use the new planes and how their introduction could impact the battlefield.

We got The Beet. Don’t miss Meduza’s weekly newsletter (separate from the one you’re reading here)!

Planning for Russia’s future

📜 A group of Russian researchers have proposed a new constitution for the post-Putin era. Meduza breaks down its key points. (15-min read)

The Institute for Global Reconstitution (IGRec) — a research initiative founded by a group of Russian academics and journalists — has published its draft proposal for a new Russian Constitution. The document’s creators, who believe their project will prove useful after Russia’s current ruling regime loses power, include sociologist Grigory Yudin, political scientist Evgeny Roshchin, and philosopher Artemy Magun. “In some aspects, it might seem as if the authors are making ‘mistakes’ from the perspective of generally accepted liberal law, but in fact, all of the points of the Constitution have been carefully verified and undergone critical discussion by lawyers,” reads an explanatory note accompanying the document. The project, one of the first attempts to conceptualize a new structure for Russia after Putin, has generated widespread discussion among the Russian opposition and beyond. Meduza highlights some of the most interesting (and, in some cases, controversial) parts of the proposed constitution.

No country can be free without independent media. In January 2023, the Russian authorities outlawed Meduza, banning our work in the country our colleagues call home. Just supporting Meduza carries the risk of criminal prosecution for Russian nationals, which is why we’re turning to our international audience for help. Your assistance makes it possible for thousands of people in Russia to read Meduza and stay informed. Consider a small but recurring contribution to provide the most effective support. Donate here.