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‘The Pentagon must be a mess’ How the Russian political establishment made sense of the recent U.S. intel leak

Source: Meduza

In the wake of Jack Teixeira’s arrest over the publication of classified documents shedding light on the U.S. intelligence assessments of the Ukraine war, Meduza’s correspondent Andrey Pertsev spoke with a number of anonymous insiders in the Russian government, the Kremlin, and the state-controlled media, trying to grasp what consensus members of Russia’s political establishment had developed with regard to the leak, its real motives, and its most plausible effects. A source two handshakes removed from Putin, for example, encapsulated what seems to be the most widespread impression: “The West, and even the U.S., are not that single-minded about the war.” What other informed speakers had to say about the scandal happens, once again, to say a great deal about how Russia’s political elites think about the outside world.

Meduza discussed the U.S. intelligence leak with a number of informed sources close to the Kremlin, the Russian government, the state-controlled media, and major business circles that come into direct contact with Vladimir Putin. All of the sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said they were certain that the leak is only “to Russia’s advantage.”

Two sources close the President’s administration said the Kremlin generally views the leak as something that Washington knew about and deliberately ignored. They are also convinced that major American news outlets wouldn’t have published the leaked intelligence documents without Washington’s express permission. Although they have no supporting evidence for this view, they believe it to be true, based on their own experience of how the pro-Kremlin media operate in Russia. Their expectation is that major U.S. outlets must behave similarly.

On the other hand, a different source in the Russian government does not share this idea: in his view, the publication of classified documents in the U.S. probably means that Pentagon must be “a mess,” just like the Russian Defense Ministry.

Sources in the Kremlin nevertheless think the extensive leak signals that the West is “a bit tired of the conflict” between Ukraine and Russia and wants to “hint” to Ukraine that it’s time to soften its position with regard to peace talks with Russia.

Another speaker, who is close to an entrepreneur from Vladimir Putin’s inner circle, notes that the West is not devoid of common sense: “The frontline is stuck, there’s no movement,” he observes. “If the [Ukrainian] counteroffensive doesn’t work out, Russia’s negotiating position will strengthen.” Other informed speakers close to the President’s Administration believe that Russia’s “negotiating position” hasn’t changed at all: Putin still insists that Russia must get all the now-occupied territories if a deal is to be negotiated.

One particular source close to the Kremlin notes that the leak, and the information purportedly showing the Ukrainian army’s weakness, can be effectively “sold” to the masses through propaganda. A speaker close to a state media outlet, meanwhile, says that the President’s Administration was quick to tell the propagandists that Russia had nothing to do with the leak. The same source suggests that a number of pro-Kremlin journalists had at first chalked up the incident to deliberate misinformation. After Jack Teixeira’s arrest, though, they changed their minds about that.

A Kremlin insider tells Meduza that the Russian establishment was hardly surprised by how well-informed the U.S. turned out to be in regard to the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Referring to the way the Russian elites had been taken off guard when the war first broke out, he says simply: “They knew, but we didn’t.” His evidence is the string of pre-war publications that sounded the alarm in the American press.

A number of speakers agree that Russian elites are all waiting for the counteroffensive “promised” by Ukraine. (According to the Ukrainian defense intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, the Pentagon leak won’t have any effect on the Ukrainian military’s plans.)

At the same time, Meduza’s sources don’t feel at all sure that Russia would be able to cope with a transfer of initiative on the front to Ukraine. One of them is particularly skeptical about official pep talk: “The Defense Ministry might say we’ll push back, but who knows how it’s all going to be in reality. Ukraine is in bad shape; we might be doing even worse.”