The Rand Europe think tank published a report describing a possible scenario for a war between Russia and NATO in 2030.

Under the scenario, Vladimir Putin, 74, dies of natural causes in January 2027 without having named a successor, triggering a power struggle in the Kremlin. In March, a former general in Russia’s Federal Security Service becomes the new president.

The new president agrees to a ceasefire in Ukraine in exchange for a partial lifting of sanctions. Talks on a full peace deal stall by July 2027 because Russia continues to claim occupied Ukrainian territories, and the war turns into a frozen conflict. The Kremlin redirects the freed-up resources toward rebuilding its army.

By January 2028, the new president begins replacing Putin’s allies with officials loyal to him, but an economic and social crisis leaves his hold on power precarious. He decides to shore up his position with a hybrid campaign against NATO countries.

By 2029, the Kremlin develops a plan for a limited military operation in the Baltic states, expecting to demonstrate NATO’s inability to defend its members. The invasion’s pretext becomes the suppression of protests by the Russian speaking population in the Estonian city of Narva in May 2030.

By then, the United States has reduced its military presence in Europe because of a major crisis in South America. The Kremlin expects NATO to accept the limited invasion to avoid a full-scale conflict, but the alliance invokes Article 5 of its collective defense treaty and sends troops to Estonia.

The war soon spreads beyond the Baltics. By November 2030, European armies are exhausted after months of fighting, but Russia still fails to achieve decisive military success. The Russian president faces domestic pressure over his failure to secure a quick victory in Estonia.

Moscow declares that the operation has achieved its goal of protecting the Russian-speaking population. Western European countries agree to a ceasefire, while Russian troops continue to control Narva and most of the Estonian county of Ida-Viru. Peace talks reach another impasse, and the conflict freezes.

The analysts stress that the scenario is not a prediction but one of several possible ways events could unfold. Still, the report’s authors consider the threat of a war in Europe against an equally matched adversary to be quite real by 2030.