Hackers published a ‘Sberbank memo’ war-gaming eight endings to the war in Ukraine. One source in Russia’s financial market thinks a chatbot wrote it.

The hacker group Black Mirror has published screenshots of a purported Sberbank analytical memo that lists eight scenarios for ending the full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine. The document is dated April 2026, meaning it was prepared before Ukrainian forces stepped up strikes on oil refineries and logistics sites. According to the hackers, the memo came from correspondence between Sberbank board chairman German Gref and an unnamed correspondent. The authenticity of the screenshots has not been confirmed, and it is not known who wrote the memo. Sberbank has not commented on the reported leak of the correspondence. Meduza runs through the scenarios outlined in the document.

Update: A source in Russia’s financial sector told Meduza that they had not seen the original of the “memo” but suspected the material was generated by an AI chatbot. That theory is backed up by Pangram, an AI-detection service, which found that 83% of the document’s English-language text was machine-generated.

1. Russia’s decisive military advantage

Probability: 7%

This scenario envisions Russia gaining full control over the four “new constituent entities” — the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (“DPR”), the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic (“LPR”), Zaporizhzhia region, and Kherson region — within their administrative borders. The document also mentions Kharkiv region as a kind of “political symbol.” It does not contemplate taking Kyiv, but Russia would have to force Ukraine into talks “from a position of absolute military dominance.”

The document says Russia cannot carry this out without a second wave of mobilization — 300,000 to 500,000 people. Under current conditions, contract soldiers are enough to replace Russia’s monthly losses of 20,000 to 25,000 troops, but not enough to build new strike groups. The country would also need to fix its rear-area air defenses, since Ukrainian strikes on oil and military facilities — including strikes with “Flamingo” missiles — could make the cost of an offensive “unacceptable” for Russia.

Analysts also point to the need to increase air support several times over and to field autonomous drone swarms coordinated by artificial intelligence. The document says Western software could help Ukraine do this faster.

Another important point:

• Analysts at the Russian state bank Sberbank put Vladimir Putin’s real approval rating at 55% to 65%. Mobilization could cut that by another 10 to 15 percentage points, and only a guaranteed successful offensive would offset the decline.

2. ‘Exhaustion of the West’: peace on Russia’s terms

Probability: 12%

In this scenario, Ukraine loses political — and with it, financial — support from its Western allies. That would require three factors to coincide: U.S. support for Ukraine falling below 30%, an energy crisis in Europe this coming winter, and a domestic political crisis in Ukraine itself.

Russia could then secure the lifting of some sanctions and guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO. Analysts consider each of these three factors likely on its own but doubt all three will occur at once.

The conflict would be frozen without a formal treaty, and Ukraine could still join the European Union. The document draws a comparison to Cyprus, which does not control all of its own territory: Northern Cyprus is under Turkish control and recognized by no country other than Turkey, yet the Republic of Cyprus remains an EU member.

Another important point:

• Sberbank estimates that, as of April 2026, Russia’s economy can hold out for another 12 to 18 months under current conditions. Analysts say time favors Russia, since every month that passes weakens the Western coalition.

3. ‘Trump’s deal’: a frozen conflict with partial sanctions relief

Probability: 32%

This scenario resembles the previous one but, in Sberbank’s view, is more likely. The conflict freezes, most likely without a formal peace treaty; Ukraine does not join NATO; and some sanctions are lifted. The United States accepts Russian control over the four regions while still legally recognizing Ukraine’s 1991 borders. The EU does not recognize the new borders.

Analysts put the scenario’s probability high because they expect Donald Trump to want a deal closed before the November 2026 midterm elections, which would push him to pressure both sides. He would threaten Russia with lifting all restrictions on arming Ukraine, and Ukraine with cutting off support entirely. A successful deal would let Trump stake a claim to the Nobel Peace Prize.

The problem: neither side trusts Trump’s long-term guarantees, and any change in the U.S. administration could reignite the conflict. A durable deal would require a multilateral format, but Trump shuns such arrangements, and European countries would oppose the deal.

Another important point:

• For Russia, this scenario would amount to neither victory nor defeat. The document says the Kremlin could sell the deal at home as “forcing NATO to retreat,” which would boost its approval rating. But an unfinished war could also fuel opposition sentiment.

4. A ‘Korean freeze’: without a formal agreement

Probability: 22%

This scenario would play out if neither side could achieve a decisive breakthrough. The conflict fades without a formal agreement, the front line stabilizes, and the intensity of fighting declines — though the drone war continues.

Analysts say this is possible if Trump loses interest in Ukraine and turns his attention to another country or to domestic politics. The EU would then shoulder the bulk of support for Ukraine and speed up the country’s accession to the union.

For Russia, this would mean not just a “normalization of the war” but an economic respite as well. Sberbank says the risks to those in power are relatively low: the ruling party United Russia’s low approval rating — 31% — points to war fatigue, but analysts see no revolutionary potential in it.

Another important point:

• Both sides could use the pause to rearm on a large scale over the following three to five years. The next stage of the conflict would be a technologically different war altogether.

5. A protracted war (another two to three years)

Probability: 15%

The conflict grinds on without a freeze or breakthroughs, with Russian losses and front-line advances holding at current levels. This scenario would mean a total failure of diplomacy.

Ukraine would face a humanitarian catastrophe and demographic collapse. Russia would be forced to fight “at the outer limit of what its economy can bear,” though analysts do not expect significant protests at first. Birth rates would continue to fall, and skilled workers would keep leaving the country, while Putin’s real approval rating would fall below 50%.

At some point, the Russian public might break its silence — something that would happen if living standards fell noticeably, as they did during perestroika from 1986 to 1991.

Another important point:

• This scenario implies a further tightening of sanctions. Russia’s isolation would continue to grow, though it would not reach the level of Iran or North Korea, since the country would still be trading with China, India, and others.

6. Peace on compromise terms

Probability: 5%

Significant political change on one side of the conflict could lead to a full-fledged peace treaty with mutual concessions. Analysts doubt, though, that Putin’s position will weaken substantially — they are more inclined to bet on a change of power in Ukraine or on outside pressure on both sides, including from China on Russia.

Under this scenario, Russia could return part of the occupied territory to Ukraine — Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in part, or all previously captured territories — in exchange for recognition of Russian control over Crimea and part of the Donbas. Ukraine would get security guarantees and the possibility of joining the EU and even NATO, though not sooner than 15 to 25 years from now.

This would be the most difficult scenario for both sides. Ukraine would effectively be forced into capitulation, while Russia would have to explain to its own population what the war — which cost hundreds of thousands of lives — was actually for.

Another important point:

• Russia would also have to overhaul its current narrative. It has written the “four new constituent entities” into its constitution, which would make returning any of that territory politically very difficult.

7. Peace on Ukraine’s and Europe’s terms

Probability: 2%

Sberbank rates this the least likely scenario of all: Russia withdraws to the 2014 or 1991 borders and pays reparations, while Ukraine joins NATO. Crimea would either be returned to Ukraine or become the subject of negotiations.

Such an outcome could follow from an economic collapse in Russia (GDP falling by more than 15%, hyperinflation), a catastrophic military defeat, or regime change. Analysts consider all three unlikely.

Another important point:

• The document says this outcome would require the eighth and final scenario to unfold — and analysts currently see no preconditions for that.

8. The ‘wild card’: black swans

Probability: 5% (combined for all sub-variants)

Here, Sberbank considers unlikely events that could radically alter the course of the conflict. None of the possibilities below can be forecast using standard analytical methods.

Nuclear escalation: Russia’s use of tactical nuclear weapons. This would bring instant and total isolation, cutting Russia off from Chinese and Indian support — and could also draw a NATO response.

“A new Chernobyl”: a Russian strike on a nuclear facility such as the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant or the Chernobyl sarcophagus. Such a strike would set off a humanitarian catastrophe on a scale that would eclipse either side’s war aims, and international pressure would force an immediate ceasefire.

A direct NATO–Russia clash: a provocation — in the Baltic Sea, for example — or an incident involving a missile or drone on NATO territory. A series of such incidents or a deliberate strike would escalate into direct conflict.

Regime change: Putin’s removal from power by the security services in order to make peace, or Ukraine’s military leadership putting forward an alternative to Volodymyr Zelensky. The document says a change of power in Russia is unlikely: “Prigozhin has been eliminated, Shoigu has been transferred, Surkov has been removed.”

An Iranian cascade: a new round of conflict in the Middle East involving the United States, Iran, Israel, and other countries. It would sharply increase Russia’s oil revenues, trigger an energy crisis in Europe, and push Ukraine further down the Western agenda.

A technological surprise: a breakthrough in AI-assisted drone swarm control, or a cyberattack on critical infrastructure in Russia or Ukraine. The first would hand one side an absolute tactical advantage; the second would strip its target of the ability to wage war.