Russia says Kostiantynivka has fallen. Kyiv claims it still holds the city. Both are wrong.

In recent days, alongside reports of drone and missile strikes on cities, factories, and gas stations, the state of the front lines has suddenly become a major topic of discussion — apparently because Donald Trump has returned as a mediator in the negotiations. Vladimir Putin told him about the fighting in the ruins of Kostiantynivka, in Ukraine’s Donetsk region — a key city the Russian president claims his army now holds. Ukraine’s General Staff responded that Kostiantynivka remains under the control of Ukraine’s Armed Forces. To back up their claims, both sides released videos of their troops inside the city, some recorded by opposing troops on nearby streets. In reality, neither Moscow nor Kyiv is right: Russian forces haven’t captured Kostiantynivka outright, but Ukraine doesn’t control the city either, though its troops still hold positions there, including in the city center. And while the Kremlin jumped the gun with its announcement, the situation in Kostiantynivka and elsewhere in the Donbas continues to deteriorate slowly for Ukraine’s military.

Kostiantynivka

• Fighting on the outskirts of Kostiantynivka began back in late October 2025. Russian forces long struggled to gain a firm foothold in the city, so for several months they focused instead on destroying Ukrainian logistics, striking the main roads north of Kostiantynivka with drones and aerial bombs. In recent months, Ukrainian units in the south have had to be resupplied exclusively by drone.
• In June, Russian forces stormed the city and reached its northern outskirts, cutting the roads that lead to Kramatorsk. This local breakthrough was likely possible because most of Kostiantynivka’s defenders had already withdrawn due to supply problems. Even so, some Ukrainian units continue to hold positions not only in the city center but even in the south.
• In the week before Russia’s military command announced the city’s capture, the situation didn’t change significantly — yet another sign of the political motivation behind the announcement.
• Russian forces are trying to seal off every route connecting central Kostiantynivka to its northern outskirts. Until recently, Ukrainian troops had access to a dangerous supply route running along the Kramatorsk–Kostiantynivka railway (judging by video footage, remote-controlled unmanned ground vehicles were able to traverse it under Russian fire). In early July, Russian forces moved to cut this last route by seizing the grounds of a weighting-material plant (the “Zavod Utyazhelitelei”) near the railway.
• Last winter, in a similar situation in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, nearly encircled Ukrainian units held their positions for more than a month. In Kostiantynivka, matters are somewhat less dire because Ukrainian forces remain on both flanks of the advancing Russian force, to the west and to the east. Russian units pushing through Dovha Balka in the west and Novodmytrivka in the east have so far failed to achieve the deep envelopment that could lead to the city’s full occupation.
• In any case, don’t expect Russian forces to push north toward Kramatorsk right away: that would require concentrating drone operators and artillery in Kostiantynivka, which in turn would require securing the city. Six months have passed since Russia captured Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, for example, and its troops are only now trying to reach the outskirts of Dobropillia — their next objective.

Fighting along the Siverskyi Donets

• While a Russian advance on Kramatorsk from the south — through Kostiantynivka and Dobropillia — is unlikely in the near future, Russia’s gains southeast and east of the Kramatorsk–Sloviansk urban area are more obvious.
• The offensive there is proceeding along three axes: both banks of the Siverskyi Donets River and the area around the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal.
• North of the Siverskyi Donets, Russian forces have been pressing a determined assault on the city of Lyman since late June. As in Kostiantynivka, Russian assault troops have appeared in every part of the city except the western outskirts, but Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions, including in the center.
• At the same time, without waiting for the Lyman assault to conclude, Russian troops are trying to slip across to the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets, north of Sloviansk. Russian assault troops were spotted in the village of Pryshyb, though whether the crossing is an attempt to establish a lasting bridgehead remains unclear.
• Southeast of Sloviansk, a separate Russian force continues to advance along the river’s southern bank and has already reached the village of Pyskunivka. The next target may be the city of Mykolaivka, a satellite of Sloviansk.
• Yet another Russian force, which had previously been advancing along the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal, has established several bridgeheads on the western bank. The closest to Kramatorsk — about 10 kilometers (six miles) away, in the village of Malynivka — appeared in recent weeks. Even so, Russian forces are unlikely to attempt a breakthrough toward the city: an assault on the urban area would be possible only with the combined effort of all the Russian forces operating along the extended front from Dobropillia to Lyman.

Kupiansk

• Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kupiansk last winter helped Volodymyr Zelensky win a round of the information war against Putin (with Trump as the referee, then as now). Putin made the mistake of telling the U.S. president that Kupiansk had been captured at the very moment Ukrainian forces were liberating the city center and Ukraine’s president was preparing to visit its outskirts.
• In the six months since, Russian forces have managed to recover part of their position in the western part of the city (where the municipal government is based) and have pushed Ukrainian troops back significantly on the eastern bank of the Oskil River, home to the city’s Zaoskillia district.
• The Russian offensive’s main goal is clearly to eliminate the entire Ukrainian bridgehead on the eastern bank. Russian forces are pushing simultaneously toward Ukrainian river crossings in Kupiansk itself and in the settlements of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi and Kovsharivka. As on other sections of the front, Ukrainian troops aren’t giving up even hopeless, poorly supplied positions without a fight.
• This stubborn defense, even in unfavorable conditions, is part of Ukraine’s strategy — one now backed by new technology and tactics. Ukrainian forces can use drones, both aerial and ground-based, to supply small units cut off from the main force, while Ukrainian drones attack the Russian infantry forced to storm these positions. Encircled Ukrainian units often have the chance to withdraw to the main force — at the risk of falling victim to drones themselves — because the enemy can’t form dense combat formations to keep the encircled units surrounded.

How territorial control is shifting