Ukraine halts Russian advances across key sectors as Moscow prepares a new offensive. Meduza analyzes the latest battlefield developments.
Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article reviews recent battlefield developments based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the outset, and our military analyses reflect our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.
Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.
Key updates as of March 31, 2026
There is a relative lull along the front lines in Ukraine. Over the winter, the Ukrainian Armed Forces used counterattacks to halt Russia’s advance on multiple axes — from the Kharkiv region to Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, as well as in Donbas.
At the same time, there are signs that a major Russian offensive is in the works. It will likely mark the start of Moscow’s 2026 campaign, as similar offensives did in the spring of 2024 and 2025. For now, both sides are focused on redeploying troops and assembling groupings that will later face off in battles for the Kramatorsk agglomeration and the city of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region.
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Pokrovsk and Dobropillia
Russia’s Armed Forces have consolidated their winter gains in the Pokrovsk area. After receiving reinforcements, they captured the village of Hryshyne northwest of the city. Earlier, Ukrainian Armed Forces units had been sending small detachments from there into central Pokrovsk and its northern outskirts to maintain a presence in the city.
After capturing the town of Rodynske north of Pokrovsk following months of fighting, Russian forces advanced toward the next town, Bilytske, south of Dobropillia. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, following their new tactic, are now trying to counterattack Russian units before they can fully secure their positions in Bilytske and farther north in the village of Novyi Donbas.
Judging by the activity of Russian troops and the reserves being brought into the area — including elements of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division — capturing Dobropillia and bypassing the Kramatorsk agglomeration from the west appear to be key priorities for the Russian command.
Kostiantynivka
Russian forces have rotated the units attacking the city of Kostiantynivka, south of Kramatorsk. Now, instead of the depleted 8th Army, which spent all of 2025 fighting Ukrainian forces for Toretsk and its northern outskirts, units from the 51st Army and the 3rd Army Corps are taking part in the assault.
Russian troops have managed to push into central Kostiantynivka, reaching the zinc plant. It’s still unclear which forces are involved or whether this is simply limited “infiltration” without broader operational consequences.
Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions on the southern and southeastern outskirts of Kostiantynivka, occupying residential neighborhoods with high-rise buildings, where drone operators are concentrated. The fighting in Toretsk in 2025 showed that Ukrainian forces can hold positions this way for months. In the near term, a Russian breakthrough toward the Kramatorsk agglomeration through Kostiantynivka is unlikely.
Siversk and Sloviansk
After Russian forces captured the city of Siversk, east of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk — a development that came as a surprise to the Ukrainian command — they advanced westward along a broad front. One grouping pushed forward along the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River, while another advanced along the Bakhmut–Sloviansk road.
Despite what were relatively high rates of Russian advance by the standards of this war, the Ukrainian command reported that the situation had stabilized following a change in command among the Ukrainian units defending this sector.
In March, the Ukrainian Armed Forces appear to have begun a more substantive stabilization effort. So far, elements of the Ukrainian “Skala” regiment have been deployed to the flank of the advancing Russian grouping. Although the regiment is nominally composed of three to four battalions, in practice it has around ten, making it a source of manpower for Ukrainian “fire brigade” units operating across a wide stretch of the front, from the Dnipropetrovsk region to Sloviansk.
So far, Ukrainian forces have managed to retake part of the village of Minkivka on the western flank of the Russian breakthrough toward Sloviansk. The pace of that advance remains slow enough that the Ukrainian command may be able to intensify counterattacks in the future to halt it.
Huliaipole and the Dnipropetrovsk region
Ukrainian counterattacks into the rear of Russian forces have slowed the Russian advance through Huliaipole toward Orikhiv in the central part of the Zaporizhzhia region. Orikhiv is the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ main “fortress” in the south of the country.
Russian attempts to break through to the city from the west (via Mali Shcherbaky) and from the south and southeast (from Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka) have not succeeded. Apparently, the Russian command planned for the “Vostok” contingent, advancing along the front from the direction of Huliaipole, to take Orikhiv. Over the winter of 2025–2026, this grouping advanced faster than others.
The Ukrainian command responded belatedly — after the loss of Huliaipole — by redeploying a substantial force (roughly the size of an army corps, or four to five brigades) from the Pokrovsk area. These forces struck the relatively exposed northern flank of Russia’s “Vostok” contingent and advanced 10–15 kilometers (about six to nine miles) over several months.
Judging by open-source footage, this counterattack was halted by Russian forces near Ternove and Berezove, on the border between the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
The Russian advance westward from Huliaipole has also stalled. However, this may be a temporary pause: the Russian command is redeploying substantial marine forces to the area from near Pokrovsk.
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Meduza’s Razbor (“Explainers”) team