Enter year four Russian forces are still struggling to dislodge Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region — and may now try to encircle them
Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.
Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.
Key updates as of February 25, 2025
Russian troops have entered a new phase of their offensive in Donbas. By the end of February, they effectively completed their operation near Kurakhove, pushing Ukrainian troops out of the city’s western outskirts. Ukrainian units were once again forced to withdraw under threat of encirclement. Now, Russian forces previously engaged near Kurakhove are being redeployed north to the Pokrovsk–Toretsk line. The next likely target is Kostiantynivka, the southernmost city in the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk metropolitan area. At the same time, Russian forces have moved closer to the main supply route for Ukrainian troops in Russia’s Kursk region — the Sudzha–Sumy road. In the coming weeks, they will attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces in Sudzha or force them to retreat to Ukraine’s Sumy region.
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Ukraine
Kurakhove
The Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) withdrew from Kurakhove — specifically, the industrial zone on its western outskirts — on December 31. After falling back, they attempted to hold positions in a pocket protected by the Vovcha River to the north and the Sukhi Yaly River to the south. However, using their numerical advantage, Russian forces continued their flanking advance toward the confluence of the two rivers, near the villages of Andriivka, Kostyantynopil, and Ulakly.
From the north, Russia’s “Tsentr” contingent moved into the rear of AFU positions near Kurakhove, capturing most of Andriivka by mid-February. At the same time, Russia’s “Vostok” contingent launched an attack from the south. By February 20, they had taken Ulakly and reached the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway, the only remaining supply route linking Ukrainian forces on Kurakhove’s western outskirts to their main units. This forced Ukrainian troops to withdraw under threat of encirclement, retreating westward through Ulakly and Kostyantynopil, parts of which had already been captured by the “Vostok” contingent.
This battle was likely the last involving the 8th Combined Arms Army of Russia’s Southern Military District in this sector. Previously, the army’s two divisions had been attached to the “Vostok” contingent to support the offensives on Vuhledar and Kurakhove. There is growing evidence that units from the 8th Army are now being repositioned for an advance on Kostiantynivka from Toretsk.
Earlier, two brigades from the Southern Military District that had taken part in the storming of Kurakhove in December were redeployed to the sector east of Pokrovsk. By early 2025, they had broken through Ukrainian defenses near Vozdvyzhenka and reached the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka road.
With Southern Military District forces now shifting elsewhere, the “Vostok” contingent will try to advance westward toward the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions on its own. Meanwhile, the Russian group is still pushing Ukrainian forces northward from recently captured Velyka Novosilka.
Pokrovsk
While the redeployment of two brigades allowed Russian forces to advance east of Pokrovsk, their offensive to the south and west of the city has been halted by Ukrainian counterattacks.
Earlier, Ukrainian troops counterattacked and recaptured part of Pishchane, a village on the Solona River, disrupting Russian supply lines to Kotlyne and Uspenivka, west of Pokrovsk.
Russian forces later managed to retake the industrial zone in Pishchane, where there’s an unfinished mine, but fighting for the village and control of the river crossing is ongoing. Reports indicate that Russian supply routes south of Pokrovsk remain under constant Ukrainian drone strikes.
Kupyansk
Russian troops are expanding their bridgehead on the western bank of the Oskil River north of Kupyansk. However, they aren’t yet able to advance on the city, as heavy equipment has not been brought onto the bridgehead. They’re first attempting to advance toward the Russian border to improve supply routes for their troops on the bridgehead.
Near the border, Russian infantry has once again crossed the Oskil River and captured the village of Topoli. Ukrainian forces have not attempted a counterattack, as they lack available troops to challenge the Russian position.
Russia
Kursk region
Many of Ukraine’s most combat-ready units remain positioned in Russia’s Kursk region. Earlier this month, Ukrainian forces managed to halt the Russian advance south of Sudzha. A large Ukrainian unit crossed the Smerditsa River, established makeshift crossings, and launched a surprise attack, forcing Russian troops out of Cherkasskaya Konopelka. This allowed Ukraine to cut off the road running along the Psel River, which had been a key supply route linking Russian forward positions in Makhnovka (a southern suburb of Sudzha) with their main forces. Russian troops have so far failed to quickly retake the village.
At the same time, however, the situation has deteriorated for Ukrainian forces west of Sudzha. Russian troops have recaptured Sverdlikovo, a village along one of the main roads leading from Ukraine’s Sumy region. According to Russian sources, Russian forces have now crossed into Sumy region itself and are advancing toward the Sudzha–Sumy highway, the primary supply line for Ukraine’s foothold in Kursk region. However, these reports remain unconfirmed.
If Russian forces reach the Sudzha–Sumy highway, all Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region will be under threat of encirclement, potentially forcing the Ukrainian command to evacuate the foothold. However, this remains a distant objective for Russian forces. Ukraine is likely to reinforce its positions and attempt to establish a new defensive line west of the road, similar to the fortified positions built near Malaya Loknya north of Sudzha.
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