Stuck on pause Rumors of peace talks have Ukrainian politicians gearing up for potential elections — even with no timeline in sight
As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, declaring (at least publicly) his intent to swiftly end the Russia–Ukraine war, Ukrainian political circles have begun buzzing with discussions of parliamentary and presidential elections. Ukraine’s elections have been postponed while martial law is in effect, but, according to a new report by RBC Ukraine, talk of a potential peace deal has prompted some party offices to start closely analyzing approval ratings and considering possible alliances — even though there’s little reason to believe elections will take place anytime soon. Meduza shares a summary of their reporting.
The Zaluzhnyi question
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Kingdom and former Ukrainian Armed Forces commander-in-chief, remains the country’s most popular public figure, even a year after stepping down from his military role. Both public and private polls consistently place him as the leading candidate in any electoral scenario. Most of RBC Ukraine’s sources believe Zaluzhnyi will participate in future elections in some capacity, though he hasn’t publicly expressed any such intentions.
RBC Ukraine writes that Zaluzhnyi may either be undecided or deliberately holding back to avoid a “false start” before his campaign officially begins. Instead, he’s kept public interest alive by publishing videos and an autobiography — a strategy sources compare to Volodymyr Zelensky’s 2019 presidential campaign.
At present, Zaluzhnyi doesn’t have a political team of his own to support a campaign, so various groups have proposed forming alliances with him. Two of RBC Ukraine’s sources said that Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian president’s office, met with Zaluzhnyi in London in early December. During the meeting, Yermak reportedly encouraged him to forgo a presidential run and instead lead Zelensky’s Servant of the People party in the parliamentary elections.
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“Zaluzhnyi supposedly said he hasn’t yet decided whether to enter politics. It seems he is hesitant to take on such a massive responsibility. However, he might consider it if it doesn’t appear to be his own decision — if he were ‘asked’ to do so by the military, volunteers, or activists,” one source explained.
Other political groups are also vying to connect with Zaluzhnyi with an eye on future parliamentary elections. According to RBC Ukraine, former President Petro Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna party both reached out to him with offers of cooperation, but their efforts were unsuccessful.
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko’s Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (UDAR) party has also shown interest in a potential partnership, although no discussions have taken place yet. As RBC Ukraine notes, all the opposition parties are offering similar terms: “We provide the party structure and support for a presidential campaign; you bring your popularity and take on a prominent role, such as speaker or prime minister.”
The Zelensky question
According to RBC Ukraine, whether President Volodymyr Zelensky will seek a second term remains an open question. It depends on the conditions under which the war with Russia ends, how those conditions are received by the public, and who his main opponent might be.
Opinions within Zelensky’s team on the matter are divided. His inner circle believes he should pursue reelection regardless of the circumstances, while others in less senior roles argue that the decision should be made closer to the election, based on his level of public support at the time.
This uncertainty, RBC Ukraine notes, has left the president’s Servant of the People party lagging behind others in preparing for possible parliamentary elections. One decision, however, has already been made: the party will undergo a rebrand, as the Servant of the People name has “long outlived its usefulness and become openly toxic.”
The party will likely also undergo a major overhaul. According to RBC Ukraine’s sources, the revamped “Zelensky Bloc” will include no more than 10 percent of its current deputies on its electoral lists. The rest of the candidates are expected to come from regional leaders, activists, military personnel, and “technocrats” from Andriy Yermak’s team. Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov is reportedly being considered to lead the rebranded party.
A matter of time
According to RBC Ukraine, all political parties agree on one point: elections can only take place after the war ends. However, it’s still unclear how they’ll be organized. Even the sequence of the elections remains undecided — whether parliamentary elections will come before the presidential vote or vice versa. And the order and timing, RBC Ukraine notes, will inevitably shape the prospects of the participants.
Most sources who spoke to RBC Ukraine believe the presidential and local elections will be held first, followed by parliamentary elections. This is largely because a presidential election is logistically simpler, with fewer candidates and a quicker vote count. Regardless of the order, several major challenges must be addressed before any voting can take place — such as enabling Ukrainians abroad to vote and updating voter registries, which include many individuals who have died. Resolving these issues will require legislative changes.
RBC Ukraine’s sources estimate that organizing and holding any election will take four to six months after the end of hostilities. Meanwhile, Western partners have reportedly made it clear to Kyiv that elections should not be delayed for long once martial law is lifted. The question of Ukrainian elections, RBC Ukraine suggests, could become a key element of a broader “peace deal.”
