81 strikes How Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted Russian oil production and fuel prices in 2024
Ukrainian drones carried out at least 81 strikes on Russian oil facilities in 2024. These attacks, increasingly targeting infrastructure linked to military logistics, have disrupted production and forced the Kremlin to reconsider how it protects critical energy sites. In a new investigation, BBC News Russian dug into the impact of these strikes on Russia’s energy sector and fuel prices, and what the government is doing about it. Meduza shares key insights from their reporting.
Over the past year, Ukrainian drones have carried out at least 81 attacks on oil refineries and fuel depots in Russia, annexed Crimea, and occupied Ukrainian territories, BBC News Russian calculated based on government and media reports.
The strategy for targeting Russian oil infrastructure has clearly shifted over the past year. Earlier strikes often focused on refineries supplying Russia’s domestic market, but starting in the spring, Ukraine began concentrating on facilities critical to military logistics.
In the second half of the year, however, the number of attacks dropped sharply. In March 2024, the Financial Times reported that U.S. officials had asked Ukraine to stop targeting Russian energy infrastructure, fearing that these attacks could drive up global oil prices and provoke retaliation from Moscow. In October, FT wrote that Ukraine and Russia were in “preliminary discussions about halting strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure.”
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The effect on production — and prices
Drone attacks have caused several issues for Russia’s energy sector. According to available statistics, gasoline and diesel production declined in 2024, while fuel prices rose.
The sector’s profitability also dropped last year, analyst Kirill Rodionov noted. Simply put, companies producing gasoline and diesel are earning less due to the high costs of repairing damaged infrastructure — a process made even more difficult by ongoing sanctions. Additionally, the time needed for unplanned repairs has become increasingly unpredictable, further reducing oil product output, Rodionov added.
Data from Reuters supports this assessment. Drone attacks and sanctions idled 41.1 million tons, or more than 12 percent, of Russia’s total production capacity. As a result, oil refining volumes in 2024 fell to their lowest levels in 12 years, the agency reported.
The Russian authorities responded predictably. The Energy Ministry stopped publishing gasoline production statistics last year, citing “information security” concerns amid the surge in drone attacks on refineries. However, the data that is available shows that between January and May, gasoline production dropped by 20 percent, while diesel output fell by 11 percent.
For now, the Russian authorities continue to release data on fuel prices. Over the past year, gasoline prices rose by 10.85 percent, while diesel increased by 8.56 percent. As of December 23, 2024, the average price of gasoline in Russia was 60.6 rubles ($0.58) per liter, while diesel stood at 69.9 rubles ($0.66). By comparison, a year earlier, gasoline averaged 54.6 rubles ($0.52) per liter and diesel averaged 64.4 rubles ($0.61) per liter.
By late 2024, fuel prices had stabilized, but the government extended its ban on fuel exports until January 31, 2025. The export ban may be lifted soon, however, as “some stabilization and even a decline in wholesale market prices” have been observed, according to Sergey Suverov, an expert at Aricapital. He noted that prices for A-95 and A-92 gasoline fell by 10 percent on the exchange in December.
“For now, there are no major issues with domestic gasoline supplies despite ongoing repairs, but the situation could worsen as we approach the high-demand season, [which is traditionally the summer]. If that happens, the government may have to reintroduce the export ban,” Suverov told BBC News Russian.
Suverov also believes gasoline price increases in 2025 are unlikely to exceed inflation. However, at the end of the year, some experts and politicians voiced concerns that fuel prices could rise by 10–20 percent in 2025.
Protecting the refineries
In early January, a Moscow court ordered Yandex to remove images of one of Russia’s major oil refineries from its mapping service, following a lawsuit by the prosecutor’s office. According to Mediazona, the refinery in question is the Ryazan Oil Refining Company, which is listed in Russia’s registry of defense-industrial complex enterprises.
The refinery suffered at least two confirmed drone attacks last year, both of which caused fires. The court ruling mentions four attacks, reportedly resulting in damage to the refinery’s infrastructure and injuries to its workers.
It’s not clear whether the Russian government is doing anything to help companies deal with drone attacks or their consequences. In May 2024, Kommersant reported that the Finance Ministry rejected Rosneft’s proposal for tax breaks to cover the costs of protecting refineries from such strikes.
In March 2024, Artyom Verkhov, an official with the Energy Ministry, stated that the ministry was working with the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardiya) to develop security measures for refineries, including the installation of Pantsir air defense systems at these facilities.
However, open-source data suggests there aren’t enough Pantsir systems to cover all refineries. More than 50 Pantsir units were deployed earlier in the year to protect various Russian sites from drone attacks. As of March 2024, the Energy Ministry reported that Russia had 38 operational refineries, with seven under construction, 42 in the planning stages, and one undergoing renovations.
In October 2024, pro-Kremlin bloggers reported that the Kapotnya oil refinery, targeted by drones earlier in the fall, had been fitted with special anti-drone cables. These cables were visible in photographs published by the TASS news agency on September 1. A similar system was installed at the Novoshakhtinsk refinery but failed to prevent a drone strike in early summer 2024 from causing a fire and subsequent shutdown.
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