‘They dealt with this problem on their own’ What the resignation of Abkhazia’s leader means for the Russia-backed breakaway Georgian region

Aslan Bzhania, the president of Georgia’s Russian-backed separatist region of Abkhazia, agreed to step down early on Tuesday morning after days of intense protests against a proposed investment deal that would allow Russian businesses to buy up local real estate. Protesters agreed to vacate the region’s parliament building, which they had occupied since Friday, in exchange for Bzhania resigning and holding snap elections. For insight into why the proposed investment agreement caused such an uproar, what Bzhania’s resignation means for Abkhazia’s future, and Moscow’s hands-off approach to the crisis, Meduza spoke to Olesya Vartanyan, a conflict and security analyst focused on the South Caucasus.

On X, you wrote that both sides can claim victory: Abkhazia’s opposition got Aslan Bzhania to resign, and Bzhania secured snap elections in the near future, just a few months before regular elections would have been held anyway. Does this mean Bzhania’s planning on winning the snap elections?

Before Bzhania announced his resignation, this is what he had been telling everyone — that he would be ready for snap elections and was determined to stand as a candidate. We haven’t heard him confirming this statement, but I will be very surprised if he now changes his mind after actually reaching the agreement and after everything that has been happening, especially yesterday. So I would still expect him to stand in the snap elections, which are probably going to take place later this year or early in January.

Is it right to say Bzhania is backed by Russia? And are elections in Abkhazia competitive enough that it’s an open question whether he’ll win again?

It’s a very good question. Because if you look at Abkhazia, it’s so dependent [on Russia] that the whole thing is kind of backed by Moscow. At this very moment, we cannot really say that it’s in Moscow’s interest to back the opposition, but no one knows — that could just change. So I would be very careful describing one guy or another as a “Russian candidate.”

The whole place is really very pro-Russian, and the opposition, I should say, has been trying to make the point that they are not anti-Moscow at all. So you don’t really know how it will go. But when it comes to the local elections, usually the vote there is very competitive.

During the last couple of elections, the new trend is that local businesses have started getting involved, which has usually led to more bribery and also more use of state resources during the campaign phase.

But other than that, usually they have a very competitive process. They have to find a way to count the votes properly, because they actually have this very interesting system where they have representatives of different political groups present at the polling stations, including during the count, and that prevents much of the fraud taking place at the very latest stage. So usually they are actually doing fine, when it comes to the quality of vote.

Russian media posted videos of interviews with protestors saying they have nothing against Russia, but that this investment agreement could mean the end of the Abkhaz people and the collapse of small business in the region. Is this really the main reason people were protesting? Are they worried about giant Russian firms coming into town and replacing small businesses?

Yes, I think this is the major concern for the locals. It concerns their real incomes, because the main area where the locals are making their funds is tourism. During the summer season, everyone earns the funds that they live on for the rest of the year. And when they see big Russian companies start coming in, especially with the kind of preferential treatment that the local leadership was promising [to Russian companies] — including a kind of alternative financial system, with Russian companies using Russian banks, not even local banks, and without even paying the local taxes — these were kind of the main concerns of the locals. They were concerned that it would create an unfair environment, and that it would basically kill local small business, which is an essential source of funds for the majority of the local people in Abkhazia.

How is the Kremlin viewing all of this? Has Russia lost interest in Abkhazia? Would this crisis have happened if Russia wasn’t distracted with the war in Ukraine?

We’ve actually been seeing Russia distracted from small things like Abkhazia since the very start of the full-fledged invasion [of Ukraine]. It’s mainly lower level officials in Moscow that are dealing with such topics [as Abkhazia]. In the past, we had some senior Russian officials who would come to Abkhazia to mediate between political forces, especially in crisis situations like this, but this didn’t happen this time. That could be either because Moscow is kind of distracted and busy with other things, or because they just don’t want to give a chance to the opposition. So they’re kind of leaving the Abkhaz to resolve their own domestic, local issues.

Do these protests and Bzhania’s resignation look like a major change or turning point for Abkhazia, or is it more likely that politics there will continue as usual but with different leaders in place? 

There is one major piece of news: Abkhazia was finally able to resolve its own political crisis, on its own! Previously, we had leaders who would resign and run to different locations, and then they would be exiled and they would have to leave the political space. But now we actually have a much more civilized setup, and it’s really very interesting that they were able to do it themselves, without any kind of external presence — that they dealt with this problem on their own. I think this is actually the biggest news for Abkhazia.

Other than that, if Aslan Bzhania decides to run in the snap elections, I think he will still have very good chances; maybe he won’t take the majority vote right away in the first round, but he still has quite a bit of support, especially among those who work for the state structures.

And the second thing is that he also has some resources. For example, if you look at the parliament, the people taking the side of Aslan Bzhania are the ones who have funds. I think we definitely shouldn’t say that Aslan Bzhania is done. He’s still part of the story.

This interview has been lighted edited for clarity.