Putin’s latest boasts of battlefield success are exaggerated — but Ukraine is still rapidly losing ground
Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.
Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.
Key updates as of November 9, 2024
In his speech at the Valdai Discussion Forum last Thursday, Vladimir Putin said that Russian forces had “trapped” two groupings of Ukrainian forces near the city of Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region: one consisting of 10,000 troops and the other of 5,000. In reality, Ukraine’s forces still hold two bridgeheads on the Oskil River, which splits the crucial transport hub of Kupyansk in two. (It is true, however, that Ukraine’s units on the river’s eastern bank have been under significant pressure from some time.) This wasn’t the only false claim Putin has made about Russia’s battlefield successes in recent weeks: in late October, he said that 2,000 Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region were surrounded. However, the Russian military has been unable to sever the logistics lines supplying this small Ukrainian unit, which is taking cover in the Olgovskaya Grove, a forest west of Sudzha. Ukrainian troops have also repeatedly managed to break out of near-encirclements in central and southern Donbas. Right now, Ukraine’s command needs to make an evacuation plan for Kurakhove, the region’s key southern transport hub, which is also at risk of encirclement.
Ukraine
Kurakhove and Selydove
Having captured the city of Selydove in late October, Russian troops are now advancing northwest towards Pokrovsk and south towards the Kurakhove Reservoir. Another Russian grouping, which previously seized the city of Hirnyk, is moving westward along the bank of the reservoir. The Russian command likely plans for the two groupings to unite at the reservoir’s western edge, cutting off the supply route for Ukraine’s garrison stationed on the reservoir’s opposite end, which relies on the road from Pokrovsk.
Meanwhile, two other groupings that recently participated in Russia’s capture of Vuhledar are now advancing on Kurakhove from the south. The Ukrainian forces in this sector lack the resources to mount a defense and are steadily losing villages between Vuhledar and Kurakhove. The goal of the southern wing of Russia’s offensive is to reach Kurakhove and the village of Kostyantynopil to the west, cutting off the Kurakhove-Zaporizhzhia highway. As Russia comes closer to achieving these goals, Ukraine’s Kurakhove garrison will likely be forced to abandon the city.
Additionally, Russian troops have begun preparing for a new offensive on Pokrovsk and nearby villages. Recent attacks suggest a plan to approach the city from both the east and the south (from the direction of Selydove) simultaneously, before attempting to encircle and storm Pokrovsk, as they have tried repeatedly in recent months. However, it’s unlikely that an operation in Pokrovsk will begin before Russian forces capture Kurakhove: they don’t have enough resources in this area to mount two major offensives at once.
Toretsk and Chasiv Yar
The Russian military’s shortage of resources has left some of its command’s plans unrealized, with troops becoming mired in bloody battles without significant gains.
For example, part of the grouping that captured Avdiivka in February did not advance towards Pokrovsk with Russia’s main forces but instead launched an assault on Ukraine’s Toretsk agglomeration northeast of Avdiivka. After some initial successes, these troops encountered Ukrainian reinforcements and got bogged down in urban combat, making no progress over the past two weeks.
North of Toretsk, the Russian Armed Forces have broken through to the southern outskirts of Chasiv Yar. Fighting is underway along the road between Chasiv Yar and Kostiantynivka. Ukraine’s garrison in Chasiv Yar, which has managed to defend the city for many months, could soon lose its supply routes, forcing it to retreat.
Kupyansk
Putin’s claim about the “entrapment” of Ukrainian forces near Kupyansk reflects the importance the Kremlin places on the operation in the northeastern part of the Kharkiv region.
Russia’s attacks on Kupyansk began in the winter of 2023, but it has yet to achieve even its initial objective of driving Ukraine’s forces back across the Oskil River.
Russian forces reached the Oskil south of Kupyansk several weeks ago but have so far been unable to break through to the city. The Ukrainian brigades defending Kupyansk have maintained reliable transport lines from the western bank, despite the fact that Russian aviation has repeatedly bombed the bridges over the river.
To the south of Russia’s breakthrough, another Ukrainian grouping is holding the line, with a reliable supply route along a road running south along the river, bolstered by several crossing points that Ukrainian forces have quickly repaired after bombings.
The ultimate goals of Russia’s offensive in this area remain unclear. Given similar situations earlier in the war, it seems unlikely that they would be able to cross the Oskil and establish a stable foothold on its western bank. This suggests that capturing the eastern part of Kupyansk won’t open up new opportunities for further advances. One potential option is for Russia to push south along the Oskil and attempt to reach the city of Lyman. However, if Ukrainian forces are still able to resist at that point, Russian troops will face additional obstacles, running into the bend of the Oskil River and the even larger Siverskyi Donets.
Russia
Kursk region
The Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to halt Russia’s offensive west of Sudzha. Just like a week earlier, the fighting is concentrated around the villages of Novoivanovka and Zelenyi Shlyakh. Ukrainian troops have transferred reserves to this area and continue to counterattack, including with tanks.
Northwest of Novoivanovka, Ukrainian forces (which Putin claimed were “encircled” just a week ago) remain in the forests around the village of Olgovka; the village itself has been reclaimed by Russian forces.
Ukraine’s command has withdrawn troops from the Kursk region’s Glushkovsky District and sent them back to Ukraine after they failed to to capture the village of Veseloe and break through to the district center, Glushkovo. However, the operation did manage to divert a significant number of Russian forces for several weeks. It remains unclear whether these troops will be redeployed elsewhere in the Kursk region or somewhere in Ukraine. The Russian units previously stationed near Glushkovo will almost certainly be sent to reinforce the troops advancing on Sudzha.
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