Russia surrounds key ‘fortress town’ in southern Donbas as battlefield crises mount for Ukraine
Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.
Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.
Key updates as of September 28, 2024
Russia’s assault on Vuhledar — the Ukrainian military’s “fortress town” in southern Donbas — has started overshadowing developments in other parts of the front in recent days. While the battle’s outcome appears all but certain (the city is almost encircled, its remaining defenders are unable to resupply properly, and the one remaining road they could use to leave is under fire), new crises are brewing for Ukraine around Pokrovsk, Selydove, Toretsk, and Kupyansk. At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) are waging their own offensive operations in Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region as well as in the Glushkovsky District in Russia’s Kursk region.
Vuhledar
- Russian troops have advanced toward Vuhledar from the northeast, entering the high-rise district on its outskirts. The situation inside the town is still unclear, as is the true number of Ukrainian soldiers who remain there. However, a threatening scenario is developing for the AFU in the surrounding areas.
- The Russian Armed Forces are approaching the town from the west — from the direction of the recently captured village of Prechystivka — cutting off Ukraine’s remaining troops stationed there from their supply lines.
- The only road in the area still accessible to Ukrainian troops (the Vuhledar-Bohoyavlenka highway) is under constant attack from drones and artillery. It’s possible that the Russian Armed Forces are also able to target it with short-range anti-tank missiles, which require a direct line of sight to the target.
- Ukraine’s main forces have already pulled back relatively far from the city, taking up positions west of the Russian-controlled Pivdennodonbaska coal mine and near the city of Novoukrainka.
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- Even if Ukraine’s Vuhledar garrison decides to abandon the town immediately, it will likely have to fight its way northwest.
- Ukrainian military experts are urging the AFU’s command not to delay its decision to evacuate the garrison. However, for reasons that remain unclear, Ukraine’s leadership has instead decided to replace the command of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade, which has been defending Vuhledar for nearly three years.
Selydove and Kurakhove
- Another crisis is developing at the rear of Ukraine’s Vuhledar grouping. Russian forces have decided not to launch a frontal assault on the city of Selydove, and are instead maneuvering around it from the south. They’ve captured the town of Ukrainsk and are now fighting for control of the nearby villages of Hirnyk and Tsukuryne.
- If Russian troops achieve a breakthrough in this area, they could reach the western edge of the Kurakhove Reservoir and threaten the city of Kurakhove — Ukraine’s main logistical hub for southern Donbas. Meanwhile, another Russian grouping has already advanced close to the reservoir’s eastern edge.
Pokrovsk
- After an operational pause lasting several weeks, Russian forces have resumed their offensive on Pokrovsk and its satellite towns. Following the capture of Novohrodivka and most of Hrodivka, they’re now trying to seize control of the villages in between.
- Russian advance units have been spotted in the village of Mykolaivka. On the other side of this village lie the outskirts of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, which make up the core of the Pokrovsk urban area.
Toretsk
- Russian troops continue to make slow progress in central Toretsk, where heavy fighting is underway for control of the high-rise district.
- Ukraine’s relatively successful defense efforts in the city center may turn out to have been in vain: Russian forces have broken through to Toretsk from the west, approaching from the direction of the village of Niu-York. The city’s defenses may not be able to withstand attacks from this additional front.
Kupyansk
- The Russian Armed Forces are close to achieving the primary goal of their months-long offensive in the Kupyansk area. Their advance units are just two to three kilometers (1.2–1.8 miles) from the Oskil River and its crossings, as well as the road that runs along the river’s eastern bank and links Ukraine’s forces east and south of Kupyansk.
- If Russian forces reach the Oskil River, Ukraine’s supply situation will become more difficult, though it won’t be catastrophic: the AFU will have time and resources to establish defenses on not just one but several bridgeheads along the eastern bank, including one near Kupyansk and one near Borova. This is likely why Ukraine’s command has devoted less attention to this sector.
- Russian troops are trying to advance further south — around Makiivka and Nevske — but are still far from the Oskil.
Vovchansk
- After many months of fighting, Ukrainian forces have driven a Russian army unit out of the high-rise complex at the Vovchansk aggregate plant. This could ease the supply situation for Ukraine’s forces in the city center on the northern bank of the Vovcha, as the plant is located right next to the crossing that Ukrainian forces use for resupplying.
- However, it’s unlikely that Ukraine will be able to fully liberate Vovchansk in the near future, even though the AFU is still keeping major forces in the city.
Russia’s Kursk region
- A strong Ukrainian formation remains active in the Kursk region. However, while Ukraine did manage to stave off Russia’s offensive on Sudzha from the west, its own offensive operations are stalling: in recent weeks, Ukraine’s brigades that were sent across the border to push towards the district center of Glushkovo have been unable to advance around the village of Veseloe, where Russian forces — redeployed from the main thrust of Russia’s offensive on Sudzha — have established a solid defense.
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