With manpower running thin on both sides, Russia targets Ukraine’s supply lines in Donbas and Kursk region
Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.
Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.
Key updates as of September 22, 2024
The Russian and Ukrainian militaries continue to attack each other’s positions in Russia’s Kursk region. Russia’s offensive west of Sudzha has slowed down after Ukrainian brigades, which established a foothold on Russian territory in August before being pulled back into reserve, launched a cross-border attack further west, near the village of Glushkovo. So far, however, Ukraine’s counteroffensive here lacks both depth and strength. The battle’s outcome will depend on which army can breach its opponent’s second line of defense first — if either manages to do this at all. The Russian side appears closer to succeeding, having begun an assault on the village of Lyubimovka. Losing the village could dramatically impair Ukraine’s ability to supply its entire Kursk grouping west of Sudzha.
Kursk region
- Having identified the main direction of Russia’s counteroffensive (eastward from Korenovo and Glushkovo, towards Sudzha), the Ukrainian Armed Forces enacted a plan that had clearly been prepared in advance for this scenario. Specifically, they launched a flanking maneuver across the border against Russia’s advancing forces.
- Ukraine carried out two attacks in total: one to the south and one to the southeast of Glushkovo, a village that serves as a district center. The Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to penetrate Russia’s defenses near the border by a few kilometers, but they were halted near the village of Veseloye by Russian reserves.
- These reserves were likely intended to take part in Russia’s offensive on the villages of Nikolayevo-Darino, Darino, and Lyubimovka, along the Snagost River. Russian troops have approached these settlements but have not managed to recapture them. Another likely problem for Russia is the villages’ distance (about 15 kilometers, or nine miles) from the position wheres Russia launched the offensive. Russia’s artillery and drone operators are stationed there, and Lyubimovka is at the far limit of their strike range.
- Russia’s command could take Ukraine’s forces by surprise by opting not to attack Lyubimovka head-on, but instead striking across the border towards the section of the Sudzha-Sumy highway (the main supply line for Ukraine’s troops in the Kursk region) that runs through Ukraine’s Sumy region. Russian forces have already captured a staging ground for such an attack near the border. The mere threat of this kind of attack should prompt Ukraine’s command to disperse its forces.
- Russian troops have also launched a localized offensive to the east and southeast of Sudzha. They’ve already managed to recapture the village of Borki on the banks of the Psel River. The terrain in this area is difficult, but if the offensive proceeds successfully, Russia’s forces could reach the Sudzha-Sumy highway from the east.
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The Pokrovsk front and Vuhledar
- Russian troops have continued their large-scale operation to drive the AFU out of the southern part of the Donbas. After halting their advance toward the city of Pokrovsk in August, they shifted their focus to attacks further south. In early September, Russia’s forces bypassed the city of Selydove from the east and launched an assault on Kurakhove (the main logistics hub for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in southern Donbas) from multiple directions.
- In mid-September, Russian forces captured the city of Ukrainsk, between Selydove and Kurakhove. By September 21, according to Ukrainian sources, they had managed to advance further west. Their objective is likely to reach the western end of the Kurakhove Reservoir.
- Meanwhile, Russian troops are trying to advance to Kurakhove from the south, approaching from the towns of Krasnohorivka and Marinka.
- At the same time, Russian forces are trying to encircle Ukraine’s major fortified area in the city of Vuhledar, which is already surrounded from the south, east, and north. Russian troops are advancing behind the Vuhledar grouping from the village of Prechystivka, which they recently captured. It is highly likely that Ukraine’s forces will soon have to abandon Vuhledar under the threat of encirclement. If this happens, Russian forces will be able to attack Kurakhove from the south as well, and to advance toward another Ukrainian stronghold in southern Donbas: the village of Velyka Novosilka.
Chasiv Yar and Toretsk
- After several months of fighting, Russian troops have entered the center of the city of Toretsk. The Ukrainian Armed Forces sent reserves to join its Toretsk agglomeration, but this hasn’t been enough to halt Russia’s advance deep into the city.
- The rapid advance of Russian forces towards Toretsk from the east — specifically from the village of Klishchiivka — could pose a new challenge for the Ukrainian troops defending the city. Russian troops have crossed the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal west of Klishchiivka, allowing them to push deep into Ukraine’s defenses.
- At the same time, Russian forces are trying to bypass Ukraine’s major fortified area in Chasiv Yar, north of Toretsk. To the north and east of the city, they’ve also crossed the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal in several places.
- The fact that many Russian units that were previously advancing on Chasiv Yar have now been redeployed to the Kursk region has hindered Russia’s advance on the city. However, the forces defending the city have also been weakened as Ukraine has sent troops from the Chasiv Yar area to Sudzha and Pokrovsk.
- The decisive battle for Chasiv Yar will likely begin only after Russian forces capture Toretsk. The chances of the Ukrainian Armed Forces holding onto the city appear increasingly slim.
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