‘Confusion is an element of hybrid influence’ Russia publishes — then denies — plans to unilaterally change Baltic Sea border

On May 21, the Russian Defense Ministry published a draft decree that, if approved, would unilaterally change its maritime borders with Lithuania and Finland. Then, on Tuesday, multiple Russian state media outlets reported that, according to a “military-diplomatic source,” the authorities were never planning to alter the boundary. By Wednesday afternoon, the document had disappeared from the Russian government’s website. Meduza explains how the episode unfolded and how Russia’s neighbors on the Baltic responded.

Russia’s Defense Ministry published a draft decree on Tuesday that would unilaterally change its maritime borders with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea. The document appeared on the Russian government’s online legal portal, though it has since been deleted.

The draft decree’s description notes that the current points marking the width of Russia’s territorial waters were established in 1985 and argues that they need to be changed because they “do not fully correspond to the modern geographical situation” and were determined using “small-scale marine navigation maps,” among other reasons.

The agency proposes extending Russia’s maritime border further into the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland and around the towns of Baltiysk and Zelenogradsk. According to the document, this would allow the “corresponding water area to be used as internal waters of the Russian Federation.”

“State maritime navigation charts of the appropriate scales will be revised and reissued for the purpose of ensuring navigational safety,” the draft continues.

Lithuania’s foreign ministry called the proposal “a deliberate, targeted, escalatory provocation to intimidate neighboring countries and their societies” in a statement to Politico, saying it is “further proof that Russia’s aggressive and revisionist policy is a threat to the security of neighboring countries and Europe as a whole.” The agency said it planned to summon a Russian official “for a full explanation.”

Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen pointed out that maritime border alterations are regulated by the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, to which Russia is a party. “It’s worth noting that creating confusion is also an element of hybrid influence. Finland is not surprised by this development,” Valtonen said. She later added that Finland does not see the proposal as a provocation.

Meanwhile, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said that the country’s authorities were aware of Russian media reports about the proposed maritime border change. “The government is closely monitoring the situation. Russia has not contacted Finland about this issue. We will proceed as always: judiciously and relying on facts,” he said.

On Wednesday afternoon, multiple Russian state media outlets published reports saying the country is not planning to move its border in the Baltic, citing a “military-diplomatic source.”

“There were not and are not any intentions to alter the width of [Russia’s] territorial waters, its economic zone, the continental shelf along the mainland coast, or the state border line of the Russian Federation in the Baltic,” the source reportedly said.

By Wednesday afternoon, the document had disappeared from the Russian government’s website, though an archived copy of its official description is still accessible.

Jyri Lavikainen, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, told the Finnish news agency Yle that “under normal circumstances, Russia would not engage in the unilateral revision of territorial borders and let us learn about it from their defense ministry’s website.” He continued: “Even if it is a minor issue, Russia is trying to create problems. It’s trying to make Western countries feel that the current political situation is unacceptable, and they should therefore enter negotiations with Russia on terms that are favorable to it.”