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Russia's consulate general in San Francisco, December 2016
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Sanctions arithmetic The mathematics fueling the diplomatic tit for tat between Russia and the U.S.

Source: Meduza
Russia's consulate general in San Francisco, December 2016
Russia's consulate general in San Francisco, December 2016
Josh Edelson / AFP / Scanpix / LETA

Russia and the United States continue to trade diplomatic restrictions, expelling diplomats and closing consulates. Both sides have defended each new measure as an effort to “restore parity” in the two countries’ diplomatic missions. Meduza takes a stroll down memory lane, recalling the chain of events that’s fueled the latest “equalizing” sanctions.

December 2016

Washington accuses Russia of interfering in the 2016  U.S. presidential election. In response, President Barack Obama does the following:

  • Expels 35 diplomats 💼
  • Closes two Russian diplomatic compounds 🏡 in the U.S.
july 2017

Russia decides to respond to the December 2016 sanctions, but the tricky thing is that the U.S. has loads more diplomatic staff in Russia (1,200) than Russia does in the U.S. (455). If Moscow decides to respond identically by expelling 35 U.S. diplomats, the effect won’t be felt symmetrically.

Identical response scenario
1,200 - 35 = 1,165
1,165 🇺🇸 > 455 🇷🇺

With this in mind, Russia’s Foreign Ministry announced that the U.S. would need to limit “exactly” the number of its diplomatic staff in Russia to the number of Russian diplomatic staff in America.

What Moscow ended up doing
1,200 - 755 = 455 🇺🇸

In response to President Obama’s decision to shutter the two Russian diplomatic compounds, Moscow also suspended U.S. diplomats’ access to storage space at Dorognaya Street in Moscow and a summer home 🏡 in Serebryany Bor.

August 2017

The U.S. State Department announced that it was ordering Moscow to close its consulate general in San Francisco, “in the spirit of parity involved by the Russians.” With the number of diplomatic staff in each country already the same, the Americans turned their attention to the number of consulates and consular annexes operating in the U.S. and Russia:

( 6 x 🏢 ) 🇷🇺 > ( 3 x 🏢 ) 🇺🇸

As a result, without formally reducing the number of Russia’s diplomatic staff in America, the U.S. ordered Moscow to close its general consulate in San Francisco and two trade mission offices, one in Washington, D.C., and the other in New York City.

What's next?

The size of the two countries’ diplomatic missions is now the same. In its public statement on “achieving parity in diplomatic missions,” the U.S. State Department carefully noted, “We have chosen to allow the Russian government to maintain some of its annexes in an effort to arrest the downward spiral in our relationship.” But Washington added that it’s “prepared to take further action as necessary and as warranted,” meaning that there’s still a possibility for more “parity achievements.” Moscow, for its part, has already promised to respond to the closure of its San Francisco consulate and trade missions on the East Coast.

Russian text by Mikhail Zelensky, translation by Kevin Rothrock

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