They were shooting before, they’re still shooting now 10 points, 10 days into the ceasefire

Almost two weeks ago, an agreement was signed in Minsk to initiate a total ceasefire in eastern Ukraine starting on 15 February. That was ten days ago, but for now it’s possible to talk only about the partial implementation of the peace deal. Meduza has monitored the situation in eastern Ukraine closely. After ten days, it’s possible to draw some basic conclusions about what’s happened at the front, and what’s likely to come.

1. The separatists did not intend to honor the Minsk agreement until they’d captured Debaltseve.

It is known that Ukraine’s president, Petro Poroshenko, sought an immediate ceasefire, when he arrived in Minsk. When an agreement was finally signed on February 12, however, the start of “ceasefire regime” was delayed for another three days, until February 15. Apparently, during that time, the separatists planned to take full control of Debaltseve, the epicenter of fighting in eastern Ukraine. This didn’t happen as quickly as the rebels hoped, and fighting in and around Debaltseve continued until February 18, when Ukrainian forces finally retreated.

2. Ukrainian troops withdrew from Debaltseve with (heavy) losses.

Separatists offered the Ukrainian army a compromise: leave Debaltseve, but leave your weapons behind. Kiev refused. Poroshenko tried to present the retreat from the city as "a planned and organized withdrawal," and the Ukrainian general staff estimated that its forces lost only 13 people during the retreat. Ukrainian soldiers, however, tell another story, insisting that the surrender of Debaltseve was accompanied by fierce fighting and heavy losses. An organized retreat was out of the question.

3. Almost nothing is left of Debaltseve.

Before retreating, Ukrainian forces held Debaltseve from mid-summer last year. In January 2015, separatists began to attack the city, and Debaltseve became the main point of the conflict. The city was shelled almost daily, and as a result almost nothing is left of the settlement which was once home to 25,000 residents. OSCE observers who entered the city after February 18 did not find anyone remaining in their homes.

4. In addition to Debaltseve, there have been hundreds of violations of the Minsk ceasefire agreement.

Each day, both the Ukrainian and separatist sides report numerous violations of the “ceasefire regime," although the number of reported violations has started declining. On the night of February 20, for instance, there were nearly a hundred attacks (each side accused the other of firing about 50 each), then on the night of February 25, there were only 23 reported attacks (19 by rebels and 3 by Kiev’s forces).

5. Residents of eastern Ukraine on both sides of the front don’t feel safe, despite the truce.

This applies not only to residents of the front-line cities, where there’s still occasional fighting. For example, on February 22, a bomb exploded in the Ukrainian city of Kharkov, far from the warzone, and the authorities have no doubt that it was connected to the separatist conflict. On February 23, Ukraine’s Interior Ministry claimed to have prevented a terrorist attack in Mariupol. At the same time, residents in the rebel-controlled areas of Lugansk and Donetsk are surrounded by mortar rounds, while rescue workers labor feverishly to neutralize unexploded ordnance.

6. Mariupol may become the new focus of the conflict.

In early 2015, the separatists tried to attack Mariupol, but then turned the bulk of their forces to Debaltseve. Now, Debaltseve is theirs, and military equipment has once again begun to accumulate in Mariupol (according to officials in Kiev). Several suburbs of Mariupol, which is home to half a million people, were reportedly shelled last week. After February 24, the number of artillery strikes dropped significantly.

7. The OSCE mission’s authority in Ukraine has plummeted.

In the Minsk agreements, the obligation to monitor the situation in eastern Ukraine falls to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). But the mission’s observers couldn’t even gain access to Debaltseve when the fiercest fighting was still underway; they only got into the city on February 21. Accordingly, the observers were unable to say anything definite about violations of the Minsk agreement during the battle for Debaltseve.

8. Ukraine supports the deployment European peacekeepers to the region.

The Minsk agreements do not involve the deployment of peacekeepers in hot spots, but this hasn’t stopped Kiev from discussing this possibility. The separatist governments in Donetsk and Lugansk, like the Kremlin, say they oppose the introduction of international peacekeepers (particularly the idea of deploying such troops on the Russian-Ukrainian border). In addition, according to Kommersant newspaper, the foreign ministers of the Normandy Four (Germany, France, Russia, and Ukraine) were unable to reach a consensus about peacekeepers at a meeting in Paris on February 24.

9. Heavy artillery is being withdrawn from the front line, but slowly.

One of the most important points of the Minsk Agreement is the withdrawal of heavy weaponry from the front line. According to the peace deal, this withdrawal is supposed to be completed by March 3. Kiev says it’s not withdrawing its artillery yet, while it it waits for the separatists to honor the ceasefire entirely. Rebels have begun removing some of its equipment, but the OSCE has not been satisfied with their methods or pace.

10. A total exchange of all prisoners-of-war has stalled.

According to the Minsk deal, the parties agreed to exchange all of their POWs. While the trade is going ahead on paper, the separatists have accused Kiev of “cheating” by handing over real POWs’ relatives and various “political prisoners,” instead of actual captured combatants. On February 22, 140 Ukrainian soldiers were exchanged for 52 rebel supporters; further exchanges are not expected to take place until early March.