‘A peace deal to cover the basics’ A short recap of the 16-hour negotiations that just wrapped up in Minsk

Working through the night, the “Normandy Four” have completed one of the most important peace deals in modern European history. Leaders from Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany worked for 16 hours behind closed doors, almost without interruption, on an agreement to stop the war in eastern Ukraine. What happened exactly during the negotiations remains a mystery; we only know the result: a new ceasefire in the Donbas. Meduza monitored the talks through the night, and now presents a short recap of events.

What’s been agreed to

Separatists and Ukrainian troops must cease fighting by midnight on February 15. Afterwards, both parties will begin withdrawing heavy weapons from the frontline, creating a demilitarized “security zone” 50- to 140-kilometers-wide (30-90 miles). Both sides will also then exchange all prisoners, without exceptions. (Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko says the prisoner-exchange deal includes Russia’s release of POW Nadiya Savchenko, though Moscow has yet to confirm this.)

Ukraine will amend its constitution somehow to accommodate better the interests of the Donbas, amnestying any citizens who fought for the separatists. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe will monitor the ceasefire on both sides, and track the withdrawal from Ukraine of all “foreign weapons, units, equipment, and mercenaries.” In the “special areas” of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions (the breakaway republics aren’t named specifically), new local elections will be held.

How the talks went

The negotiations were rough. Before the meeting in Minsk of the Big Four, the leaders of Germany and France visited Poroshenko and Putin separately in Kiev and Moscow. Throughout the talks, it was apparent that progress was being made, but the leaders made no optimistic statements of any kind, before the settlement was concluded. The dialogue seems to have started very well (Russia’s foreign minister even told reporters after midnight that the talks were going “better than super”), but it later stumbled for some reason.

At one point, after working through the night, Poroshenko stepped out briefly from the negotiations, telling journalists that “there’s no good news.” A few hours later, however, Putin appeared before the press to announce that all parties had reached an agreement “about the basics.”

The reactions

It wasn’t the leaders of the Big Four that signed the final peace agreement but the so-called “Contact Group,” which includes representatives of the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Lugansk. By signing the document, the separatists agreed to the peace plan drafted by the Big Four, though Donetsk's leader, Alexander Zakharchenko, said some of the settlement’s points require additional approval.

French President François Hollande offered very reserved comments about the peace deal, while Putin couldn’t help but blame Poroshenko for dragging out the negotiations. (According to the Russian president, the delay was due to the fact that Poroshenko resisted having direct contact with representatives from the separatist republics.) The stock market, meanwhile, has responded to the new Minsk Agreement with moderate optimism. Overall, European leaders have been reticent to herald the ceasefire as a major success, indicating that a full resolution of the war in eastern Ukraine is still a long way off.

What’s next

The results of the “night in Minsk” leave many unanswered questions. What constitutional reforms exactly will Ukraine undertake? What will happen in eastern Ukraine over the next three days, before the ceasefire takes effect on February 15? How do both sides of the conflict plan to ensure the peace and disarm the population? What does it mean in practice to remove from Ukraine all “foreign weapons and mercenaries,” if Russia doesn’t even acknowledge the presence of Russian equipment and men in the warzone? Does the new agreement mean Europe and the United States will lift some of its sanctions against Russia? Did the European leaders talk at all about Crimea?

That we don’t have answers to these questions, of course, only underscores the precariousness of the new Minsk Agreement.