Pain at the pump Parts of Russia are resorting to price caps and gasoline rationing after Ukrainian drone strikes cut refining capacity during peak demand
Russia’s fuel crisis is deepening
Gasoline prices on commodity exchanges reached record highs in August and September. As a result, many gas stations have shut down, regional authorities have imposed limits on the volume and price of gasoline sold, and exports under federal control have been halted until at least late 2025.
Oil refineries under attack
Multiple factors are at play. Late summer and early fall are traditionally peak demand periods, coinciding with both the harvest and vacation seasons. This isn’t the first time the fuel market’s had disruptions at this time of year.
In 2025, the crisis escalated due to a new development: beginning in August, the Ukrainian military launched a wave of attacks on Russian oil refineries. Recent drone strikes have damaged plants in Ukhta, Ryazan, Saratov, Volgograd, Syzran, Novokuybyshevsk, Samara, Slavyansk, Ilsky, Novoshakhtinsk, Afipsky, and elsewhere. In total, at least 16 of Russia’s 38 refineries have been hit — some more than once. These facilities supply as much as 20 percent of the country’s refining capacity. Industry sources told the newspaper Kommersant that gasoline output has fallen by roughly 10 percent.
The loss of so much refining capacity for so long — during peak demand — inevitably disrupted the market’s equilibrium.
How Russia’s loss of refining capacity is playing out
Fuel prices on Russia’s exchanges soared in August, reaching historic highs. The crisis quickly spilled over into the retail sector. By September, the gasoline shortage had reached an estimated 400,000 tons out of the usual two million tons delivered each month, an industry source told Kommersant. As a result, many gas stations had to close.
Independent operators have been especially hard hit. Businesses require a markup of at least five rubles per liter ($0.23 per gallon) to break even, but Federal Antimonopoly Service regulations prohibit raising retail prices above the rate of inflation. As a result, large companies keep prices at their own stations below wholesale, selling at a loss and driving smaller rivals out of business.
Data from the analytics company OMT-Consult indicate that between July 28 and September 22, the number of gas stations selling gasoline in Russia fell by 2.6 percent, equivalent to 360 stations. In certain regions, the scale of the problem was even greater: 14 percent of stations in Russia’s south closed, and fully half (!) have shut down in the annexed Crimean peninsula.
Sounds like a catastrophe. So, what is Russia doing about it?
The authorities have taken quite radical measures: on September 29, Sergey Aksyonov, Moscow’s top administrator in Crimea, announced that local officials had struck a deal with fuel traders to cap fuel prices for 30 days. During this period, the price for Ai-92 gasoline on the peninsula will not exceed 70 rubles per liter (about $2.75 per gallon), Ai-95 will be capped at 76 rubles ($2.95 per gallon), and diesel at 75 rubles ($2.93 per gallon). Additionally, the authorities now limit fuel sales to no more than 30 liters (nearly 9 U.S. gallons) per person per transaction.
Crimea remains an outlier when it comes to these extreme measures
Regions in the Far East are similarly at high risk, though supply issues are cropping up nationwide — including Moscow, Moscow’s suburbs, the regions of Nizhny Novgorod, Leningrad, Lipetsk, Belgorod, Stavropol Krai, and elsewhere. For now, however, only officials in annexed Crimea have taken to such radical steps.
All eyes on the feds
Clearly, the main hope lies with federal authorities’ efforts to address the crisis. On September 25, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced that the government would extend its ban on gasoline exports until the end of the year and also impose restrictions allowing only refineries to export diesel, barring resellers and traders. The official described the situation as “a minor shortage of petroleum products, covered by accumulated reserves,” acknowledging that “the overall market balance for September and October remains challenging.” According to Novak, Russia’s Energy Ministry, oil firms, Russian Railways, and the Transportation Ministry are all working to increase supply.
Experts anticipate that, as the peak demand season winds down and export controls remain in place, Russia’s fuel supply situation should normalize by late October or early November. If necessary, the government has other regulatory levers at its disposal. For now, deliveries from Belarus provide some relief.
Tools still in Moscow’s kit
As Sergey Vakulenko, a senior research fellow at the Carnegie Berlin Center, wrote, the Russian authorities “have the ability to transfer fuel from more remote plants”; “some shortfalls can be filled using Rosrezerv’s stockpiles”; and “any remaining deficit could be offset by imports from Belarus.”
At the same time, Vakulenko warned that Russia’s consumer market “could face unprecedented problems.” In that case, authorities might need to resort to “emergency measures,” including removing price controls, temporarily lowering fuel-quality standards to allow output from small refineries to enter the market, and even imposing gasoline rationing.