Little room for error Russia’s strategy depends on knowing how far it can push Europe before triggering a much stronger response. It’s a calculation that could go badly wrong.
Greetings! Please enjoy today’s mailing.
On September 29, RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan posted a short exchange between BBC correspondent Steve Rosenberg and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Rosenberg asked whether Russia was waging a covert “hybrid war” against European countries. Lavrov answered with questions of his own: “Are you referring to when we destroy the drones and missiles that Britain and continental Europe supply to Ukraine, which are then fired at us? Is that what you mean by ‘hybrid war’?” The exchange gets at a question that John Lough, a senior research fellow at the New Eurasian Strategies Center and a former NATO representative in Russia, addressed in a recent Meduza interview: What is Russia trying to accomplish by escalating pressure on Europe?
Pressure points
According to Lough, Moscow’s main goal is to make European societies feel less secure so that they, in turn, push their governments to scale back support for Ukraine. The broader aim, he said, is to weaken cohesion within both the European Union and NATO.
Moscow uses sabotage, cyberattacks, attacks on infrastructure, and other methods to test individual countries and gauge how their allies respond. The Kremlin, Lough says, is looking for weak points in NATO solidarity — signs that a member state might hesitate to support another ally or decide that continued aid to Ukraine is no longer worth the risk.
Lough also sees Russia’s escalating attacks on Ukraine as a lever against Europe. Putin, he says, initially wanted to preserve Ukraine’s economy and may even have envisioned future opportunities for Russian businesses there. After failing to win decisively on the battlefield, however, Putin has come to see destroying Ukraine’s economic capacity as a path to victory, Lough says. By weakening Ukraine, Russian strikes on critical infrastructure could also force Europe to provide more money and take in another wave of refugees, adding to the strain on governments already dealing with war fatigue and tensions over migration.
Flower Power against the Kremlin
Anyone who lives in Russia (or even travels there) risks felony charges for donating to an outlawed “undesirable” organization. That’s why our Flower Power crowdfunding campaign is designed to connect our millions of readers inside the country with those of you around the world. It’s a dark time for independent journalism globally, but together you can make a difference and help Meduza survive.
We’ve gathered requests from readers who can’t support Meduza safely, and assigned each of them a botanical code name, inspired by the anti-Nazi German resistance group the White Rose. Please read their heartfelt messages, sponsor an appeal that speaks to you, and help us show the Kremlin why “Flower Power” is an anti-war slogan. 🌼
Read Meduza’s full letter to readers here.
The threshold
Lough says he does not think Putin wants a direct confrontation with NATO, particularly while U.S. troops remain stationed in Europe. That, he says, helps explain Moscow’s preference for sabotage and other indirect methods over overt strikes on European logistics hubs and weapons factories. Such methods let Moscow raise the cost of supporting Ukraine while it tries to avoid the kind of unmistakable attack that would force NATO members to respond collectively.
Lough says the strategy could backfire: Attacks meant to intimidate European societies might instead strengthen support for defense spending and reinforce cohesion within NATO. Europe’s response since 2022 has already been stronger than many expected. Another risk, in his view, is that Moscow could miscalculate how far it can go before provoking a much harder response.
The longer view
Lough sees the strategy as closely tied to Putin. He says he believes many Russian elites don’t share the president’s worldview and do not see confrontation with the West or growing dependence on China as serving Russia’s long-term interests. He also expects a post-Putin leadership to seek some accommodation with Europe. For now, he says, the Kremlin is trying to drive up the price of backing Ukraine without provoking open war with NATO — a strategy that may end up pushing European governments toward closer coordination and a harder line on Moscow.
No country can be free without independent media. In January 2023, the Russian authorities outlawed Meduza, banning our work in the country our colleagues call home. Just supporting Meduza carries the risk of criminal prosecution for Russian nationals, which is why we’re turning to our international audience for help. Your assistance makes it possible for thousands of people in Russia to read Meduza and stay informed. Consider a small but recurring contribution to provide the most effective support. Donate here.