This was Russia today Monday, January 5, 2026

Howdy, folks. Welcome to another year of Meduza’s daily newsletters! Today, we’re hitting the ground running with a summary of a wide-ranging essay by Carnegie Center senior fellow Alexander Baunov, followed by resurfaced testimony from Fiona Hill about Moscow’s proposed grand bargain involving Venezuela. Yours, Kevin.

Alexander Baunov explains how Putin locked himself into war and toppled our moral universe

Last week, Meduza published an essay by Carnegie Center senior fellow Alexander Baunov, in which he assesses how Vladimir Putin has become locked into continuing — and possibly escalating — the war in Ukraine. Baunov criticizes Western journalists for misinterpreting Russia’s public discourse and argues that changes in “public morality” have eroded international norms. The text is roughly 3,500 words long and features metaphors about exploding black holes and allusions to the Spartans and Athenians. What follows is a non-comprehensive summary.

One of Baunov’s core claims is that the attempt to reverse the outcome of the Soviet collapse by invading Ukraine has warped Russians’ “fundamental moral reference points.” He writes throughout the essay about “schoolroom” ideas and a shared moral canon, warning that “textbook notions [khrestomatiynye predstavleniya] of good and evil that children around the world are taught” have been turned upside down in Russia. He includes in this paradigm shift the Kremlin’s refusal to view the USSR’s collapse as “the natural result of past mistakes and a reckoning for crimes committed.” In this inverted moral universe, Baunov says, the Spartans and Athenians should have negotiated with Persia; Charles de Gaulle was an émigré grifter working for London; and Volodymyr Zelensky is cast in much the same role, as a foreign-backed impostor.

While Baunov devotes a whole section of his essay to “unfreedom” in Russia, he describes society’s new victim-blaming ethics as a grassroots phenomenon that ambushed liberals by coming “from below” rather than “from above.” People now “spit” at Zelensky, Ukrainian institutions, and European politicians as a “magical incantation” meant to shield themselves from potential repression, Baunov says. He also argues that much of the public has turned its back on the free press and the war more broadly, writing: “The conduct of ordinary people is increasingly at odds with the behavior of those who, for personal or professional reasons, remain focused on lies and violence.” According to Baunov, this bottom-up myopia is a consequence of the Russian public’s “symbiosis” with its leaders, who, he says, “long ago crossed any post–World War II boundaries and returned to a bestial ideological roar.”

Baunov warns that the war in Ukraine has become a “self-reinforcing process” similar to the Putin regime’s domestic “autocratization by mistake.” He argues that Putin dismantled Russia’s democracy “in the name of efficiency” — not for a lifetime dictatorship — but he now finds himself locked into the presidency. With the war in Ukraine, Putin has likewise limited his own options (Baunov describes it as a form of “path dependence”) by mortgaging the USSR’s inherited foundational myth: victory over the Nazis. Later in the essay, Baunov argues that Putin’s attempt to rewrite the Cold War’s outcome in Europe has instead precipitated the end of the post-1945 world order, lowering Moscow’s “global status” and tarnishing its WWII victory with the “toxic hues of today’s aggression.” 

“Europe has reason to be concerned,” Baunov writes. At the same time, he devotes a section of the essay to a fundamental misunderstanding among Western audiences and editors about how Russian aggression operates, arguing that this misunderstanding is itself a dangerous downstream effect of the war. Baunov warns that the Kremlin’s willingness to sacrifice more lives than its victims “disrupts the textbook link between sacrifice and justice, pushing toward a false conclusion: if the victim is unwilling to die for justice, then justice must not matter very much to them, and therefore others can disregard it as well.” Baunov also spends multiple paragraphs criticizing Western media outlets for engaging Kremlin loyalists, such as political scientist Sergey Karaganov, and admonishes newsrooms for republishing commentary that’s functionally indistinguishable from “press releases.”

Get your Meduza merch!

We have a tradition here at Meduza: every year on our birthday, we update the merch in our online store, Magaz. In 2026, we’ll turn 12. Here’s a look at the latest clothing and accessories you can buy to rep Meduza and support our work.

News you don’t want to miss today

🇻🇪 A proposed swap: Venezuela for Ukraine 🇷🇺🤝🇺🇸

Amid Washington’s intervention in Venezuela, old testimony has resurfaced recalling how Russia once floated a blunt bargain: U.S. freedom of action in Venezuela in exchange for a Kremlin free hand in Ukraine.

• Memories of barter diplomacy: In October 2019, Fiona Hill told Congress that Moscow informally signaled this “swap,” framing it as competing spheres of influence — an idea she personally rejected. Today, as Russia balances anger over Venezuela with its overriding focus on Ukraine peace talks, some Kremlin voices openly welcome a return to a “might makes right” world order. | The New York Times

🇻🇪 Russia’s pro-war bloggers on the U.S. operation in Venezuela | After U.S. special forces captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, Russia’s pro-war bloggers reacted with a mix of outrage over double standards and reluctant admiration for Washington’s military efficiency.

📸 Meduza interviews photographer Sergey Maximishin about his two-volume farewell to Russia and a century of history captured in his work and amateur images | Maximishin reflects on his two-volume project Rodina as a personal reckoning with a century of Russian history, exile, and the limits of documentary photography amid war, censorship, and moral rupture.

🇺🇦 Zelensky replaces SBU chief Vasyl Malyuk amid intelligence shake-up | Zelensky accepted Malyuk’s resignation and appointed a career intelligence officer as acting head, triggering backlash from allies who warn the move could weaken Ukraine’s wartime security operations.

📖 In 2025, Russia’s book industry faced raids, bans, and self-censorship. The year ahead could be even worse. | Russia’s publishing industry endured an unprecedented crackdown in 2025, with raids, bans, and sweeping self-censorship tightening state control and leaving writers, publishers, and booksellers facing even harsher pressure ahead.

☦️ New investigation reveals Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill’s ‘secret common-law wife’ of 50 years | A Proekt investigation details evidence that Patriarch Kirill has long lived and traveled with Lidia Leonova, who manages his household and holds property and business assets linked to him, contradicting Orthodox canon law requiring clerical celibacy.

👩‍🎤 Russian street singer Diana Loginova, jailed for performing anti-war songs, gives first major interview in exile | After being detained and repeatedly re-arrested for singing anti-war songs on the streets of St. Petersburg, Loginova recounts how her band’s performances drew large crowds, triggered official reprisals, and ultimately forced her into exile.

No country can be free without independent media. In January 2023, the Russian authorities outlawed Meduza, banning our work in the country our colleagues call home. Just supporting Meduza carries the risk of criminal prosecution for Russian nationals, which is why we’re turning to our international audience for help. Your assistance makes it possible for thousands of people in Russia to read Meduza and stay informed. Consider a small but recurring contribution to provide the most effective support. Donate here.