This was Russia today Monday, December 29, 2025

Howdy, folks. Today, I draw your attention to a new interview with Michael Kofman, where he talks about his work on Ukraine’s battlefield and where he sees the war with Russia evolving in 2026. Read on for news about Hyundai kissing its Russian buyback clause goodbye and how China facilitates Moscow’s “shadow fleet.” Yours, Kevin.

A regional war with global risks: Michael Kofman on escalation, diplomacy, and what comes next

In a new interview with Ukrainska Pravda, American military analyst Michael Kofman discusses his fieldwork on Ukraine’s front lines and answers a wide range of questions. He describes deliberately avoiding the kind of remote data monitoring that fuels most analyses of the war, stressing that fieldwork is necessary to access diverse perspectives across multiple levels of command. Such access requires the Ukrainian military’s support, and Kofman says it sometimes includes the “unpleasant” task of delivering unwanted information to Ukraine’s military and political leaders. “It’s clear that I support Ukraine, but I operate on facts, not assumptions or propaganda,” he told Ukrainska Pravda.

Kofman argues that the war has entered a phase of attrition marked by positional fighting and short periods of stabilization, particularly during the winter months. He says neither side is capable of large operational breakthroughs, though this does not mean the war is at a stalemate. Control of territory, he says, is a lagging indicator. To anticipate what’s coming, Kofman monitors internal dynamics, force quality, and the evolving contest over drones and precision strike capabilities — factors he argues will shape the balance over the next six months or more.

On adaptation, Kofman says Ukraine tends to innovate faster at the tactical level, while Russia is more effective at copying and scaling successful ideas across the front. Ukrainian units, he notes, often avoid publicizing new methods out of fear they will be replicated. At the same time, Ukraine’s ability to scale innovations is constrained by its dependence on Western capital and by bottlenecks in Western defense-industrial production. Russia, meanwhile, faces its own manpower and industrial limits.

Kofman also describes tension inside Ukraine’s military between a decentralized, innovation-driven culture and a legacy of centralized command and micromanagement. While recent moves toward a corps-based structure are positive, he warns that excessive central control could negate its intended benefits. More broadly, Kofman dismisses the idea of technological “game changers” in a long war, arguing that real change comes from shifts in operational concepts and force structure. He calls the conflict regional rather than global but warns of rising risks of “horizontal escalation” and misaligned Russian negotiating positions, arguing that Kyiv’s diplomacy is now more realistic than Moscow’s. Kofman also warns that the war’s trajectory will be shaped by rapid adaptation cycles and external crises, such as potential conflicts in Taiwan or Venezuela, that will not wait for Russia’s invasion to end.

The Archive Collection: Nothing can stop Meduza from releasing anniversary merch — even if we have to make it ourselves. Check out our latest drop now!

We have a new tradition here at Meduza: every year on our birthday, we update the merch in our online store, Magaz. In 2025, we turned 11 — and despite the considerable challenges we’ve faced this year, we’ve found a pretty original way to bring you a new collection. Here’s a look at the latest clothing and accessories you can buy to rep Meduza and support our work.

News you don’t want to miss today

🚗 Hyundai lets Russia buyback option lapse as war drags on 🏭

South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Company — once Russia’s biggest foreign carmaker — is reportedly not in a position to repurchase its former auto plant in St. Petersburg before a January 2026 deadline.

• A shrinking window: Hyundai sold its factory for a symbolic sum in 2024 with a two-year buyback clause, but continued fighting in Ukraine and Western sanctions have left the company unable to act. The company’s situation highlights how geopolitical uncertainty is closing the door on any near-term return by Western carmakers to the Russian market. | Reuters

🚢 China–Russia shadow LNG fleet keeps Kremlin gas flowing despite sanctions 🇨🇳🇷🇺

China and Russia have built a covert “shadow fleet” of aging LNG tankers, shell companies, and offshore transfers to move sanctioned Russian gas into China, delivering at least $500 million worth of fuel since late summer, according to a Bloomberg investigation.

• The sanctions workaround: By concentrating shipments at a single Chinese port, disguising vessel ownership, and falsifying ship-tracking data, Beijing and Moscow have found a way to keep Russian LNG exports alive while limiting exposure to U.S. secondary sanctions. | Bloomberg

💥 Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington trade outrage over alleged attack on Putin’s Valdai residence | Russia claimed Ukraine attacked Vladimir Putin’s Valdai residence without providing evidence, a charge Kyiv rejected as a fabrication, while Donald Trump reacted angrily after discussing the allegation with the Russian leader on the phone.

⚖️ Documentary exposé leads to 13-year sentence for Moscow teacher in child sexual abuse case | A Moscow court sentenced a former theater studio teacher to prison after investigators acted following allegations brought to light by a documentary film.

🎭 Russian occupation forces reopened the Mariupol theater Moscow bombed in 2022. Here’s what it looks like today. | Russian authorities staged a reopening of the Mariupol Drama Theater — destroyed by a 2022 Russian airstrike that reportedly killed hundreds of civilians — presenting its reconstruction as cultural renewal while continuing to deny responsibility for the attack.

🕊️ Trump and Zelensky tout ‘progress’ at Florida meeting but make no major breakthroughs | Despite upbeat rhetoric after their latest meeting, talks between Trump and Zelensky failed to resolve key disputes over territory, leaving fundamental disagreements over how to end the war still unresolved.

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