Kyiv braces for a Trump presidency as his advisors float plans to freeze Russia’s war against Ukraine
Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election has sparked intense debate in both American and Ukrainian media about what his return to the White House means for Ukraine. In Kyiv, officials fear that Trump could cut off U.S. military aid, dash Ukraine’s hopes of joining NATO, and lead to the loss of Donbas — at the very least. Meanwhile, in Washington, the president-elect’s advisers have already floated plans to freeze the conflict along the current front line, establish a demilitarized zone, and deploy peacekeeping forces (as long as no U.S. troops are involved). Here’s how Ukrainians are reacting to Trump’s upcoming presidency and what signals his camp has sent about America’s future role in the war.
The view from Kyiv
With Donald Trump’s return to the White House now a reality, reactions in Ukraine range from cautious optimism to deep anxiety. While some fear that the Trump administration could cut off crucial military aid and embolden the Kremlin, others hold out hope that he might pursue a more decisive approach to supporting Ukraine.
Writing for European Pravda, editor Sergiy Sydorenko and journalist Oleh Pavliuk warned that Trump’s victory likely shatters any chance of Ukraine joining NATO and may force European leaders to shoulder more of the responsibility for aiding Kyiv. Without explaining why, Sydorenko and Pavliuk argued that an official NATO invitation for Ukraine — a cornerstone of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s “victory plan” — would’ve only been feasible if the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, had been elected. According to Politico, however, the U.S. is one of seven NATO member states opposed to immediately offering Ukraine membership.
At the same time, Sydorenko and Pavliuk suggested that President Biden could still provide meaningful support to Ukraine, even with his time in office winding down. This could include removing certain “red lines,” such as restrictions on supplying Kyiv with long-range weaponry.
Some Ukrainian analysts are not entirely pessimistic. Volodymyr Fesenko, a political scientist, believes that Trump’s victory isn’t the worst-case scenario for Ukraine. “It would be far more damaging if the United States descended into political turmoil,” which could jeopardize U.S. support for Kyiv “indefinitely,” he said. In an interview with RBC Ukraine, Fesenko noted that a Harris win coupled with a Republican-controlled Senate and possibly House also could’ve proved challenging for Ukraine. However, he still expects that U.S. aid will drop dramatically and change in form under Trump.
“Financial and budgetary aid will almost certainly stop,” Fesenko told RBC Ukraine. “That’s not only Trump’s stance but one shared by many Republicans. Trump is counting money, and free aid won’t continue. Military support might come through loans or lend-lease programs. Financial decisions will be up to the new Congress. We may not see quick action but maybe by early December, we could start hearing new ideas and proposals.”
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Concerns about American support are palpable among Ukrainian officials. Citing several Ukrainian military officials and advisers, The Financial Times reported that many in Ukraine’s military fear a Trump presidency will lead to a halt in U.S. military aid, costing Kyiv Donbas “at least.” “We need to convince Trump to be with us,” one official told the outlet, calling U.S. backing a matter of “life or death” for Ukraine.
Orysia Lutsevych, the head of the Ukraine forum at the Chatham House think tank, echoed concerns about a potential shift in U.S. policy under Trump. Speaking to The Guardian, she warned that Trump’s presidency could be a “gift to the Kremlin” unless Zelensky can persuade him to back Kyiv’s approach. Yet, she also highlighted a sense of frustration in Kyiv with President Biden’s policies, alongside cautious optimism that Trump might suddenly adopt a more interventionist strategy.
Oleksandr Merezhko, the head of the Verkhovna Rada’s foreign affairs committee, also said he’s “cautiously optimistic” about Trump. “He wants to be a successful president and success means that Ukraine should become for him a success story, not a story of failure,” Merezhko told the Financial Times.
Team Trump’s plan(s)
Donald Trump has yet to approve any specific plan from his advisers on how to end the Russia-Ukraine war and bring both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky to the negotiating table, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing sources close to the president-elect.
According to The Journal, all the ideas presented to Trump differ sharply from the approach taken by current President Joe Biden, who has left the decision on when to start talks up to Kyiv. Instead, Trump’s advisers have suggested freezing the conflict along the current front line, which would mean Ukraine ceding around 20 percent of its territory, and temporarily halting discussions about Ukraine joining NATO.
Three people familiar with Trump’s thinking told The Journal that one idea involves Kyiv pledging not to seek NATO membership for at least the next 20 years. In return, the United States would continue supplying Ukraine with weapons to prevent another Russian assault. This proposal envisions a demilitarized zone stretching 800 miles, though it remains unclear who would oversee this area. One source emphasized that any peacekeeping force would not include U.S. troops or units financed by the United States, including those from the United Nations.
This proposal aligns with remarks made by the incoming Vice President J.D. Vance, who, in a September interview, suggested that an agreement between Kyiv and Moscow could include a heavily fortified demilitarized zone to deter future Russian aggression. Under this framework, Russia would retain control of the territories it has already seized and receive guarantees of Ukraine’s neutrality.
Former Trump advisers Keither Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, who held key roles during his first term, have also presented a plan for ending the war, details of which were first reported by Reuters back in June. This proposal suggests that Washington should cut off military aid to Kyiv unless it agrees to negotiate peace with Moscow. At the same time, the United States would warn Russia that refusing to engage in talks would result in increased American support for Ukraine. The plan also envisions a ceasefire agreement based on the existing front lines.
“Which of these strategies Trump will pursue — in whole, in part, or at all — is unclear,” The Wall Street Journal noted, pointing out that any attempt to initiate peace talks will face significant hurdles, including the starkly divergent military goals of Russia and Ukraine, with little willingness on either side to compromise. The Kremlin, in particular, has shown scant interest in negotiations amid its advances in the Donbas region. Resistance from some of Washington’s NATO allies, who view Russia’s aggression against Ukraine as a direct threat to their own security, could complicate matters further, The Journal added.
‘I’ll speak to one, I’ll speak to the other’
On election night, Donald Trump addressed his supporters in Florida, declaring himself the president-elect and promising to “stop wars” — though he didn’t specify which ones.
Back in the spring of 2023, Trump refused to say whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war with Russia. At the time, Trump said he was focused on “getting it settled” and wanted “everyone to stop dying.” He also claimed he could end the war in “24 hours” if elected president, though he offered no concrete steps for achieving this goal.
In a June 2023 interview with Reuters, Trump suggested that Ukrainian authorities might have to cede part of the country’s territory to Russia in order to stop the war. However, he added that Ukrainians deserve “a lot of credit” for defending their land.
“I think [Ukrainians] would be entitled to keep much of what they’ve earned and I think that Russia likewise would agree to that. You need the right mediator, or negotiator, and we don’t have that right now,” Trump said. “I think the biggest thing that the U.S. should be doing right now is making peace — getting Russia and Ukraine together and making peace.”
In a later interview with NBC News, Trump refused to share details of how he planned to end the war, claiming that revealing his strategy would mean losing “all [his] bargaining chips.” “But I would say certain things to Putin. I would say certain things to Zelensky,” he remarked.
When challenged on the subject during a June 2024 debate with Biden, Trump called Putin’s conditions for ending the conflict unacceptable. He then argued that the United States should never have spent so much money on the war and claimed he would broker a resolution between Putin and Zelensky before even assuming office if elected.
In a later debate with Harris, Trump was asked if he wanted Ukraine to win. He hedged the question, replying that his priority was ending the war. “What I’ll do is I’ll speak to one, I’ll speak to the other,” he said, referring to Putin and Zelensky. “I’ll get them together.”