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‘It could become a trigger’: Fearing public discontent, the Kremlin tells Russian state media not to report on its defense spending hike

Source: Meduza

In late September, the Russian government submitted a draft budget for 2025–2027 to the State Duma for approval. The plan calls for a record-setting 41 percent of federal spending to go to national security and defense, leaving little doubt that the war in Ukraine is the Kremlin’s top priority. With many citizens struggling economically amid ongoing inflation and labor shortages, however, the Putin administration fears that news of a military spending boost will hurt the authorities’ approval ratings — and has instructed the pro-Kremlin media to cover the budget accordingly, Meduza’s sources say.

The Putin administration is worried the government’s new budget will “create a negative perception among citizens” and could lead to a decline in the government’s approval ratings, two sources close to the president’s political team told Meduza.

Immediately after Bloomberg published an article on the planned defense spending increase on September 23, the Putin administration sent instructions to Russia’s state-backed and pro-Kremlin media telling them to ignore the report, the sources said. Two sources from these media outlets confirmed this to Meduza; one said that officials told reporters “not to touch this topic” because “the budget hasn’t been passed yet.”

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One week later, on the eve of the budget’s submission, pro-Kremlin outlets received new instructions: this time, they were told to present the budget as a primarily “social” one and to avoid discussing war spending altogether. “The only exception is payments to military personnel and support for their families,” said one state media employee, explaining that these fall under “social spending.”

The Bell has also reported that the Russian government asked the pro-Kremlin media “not to promote” news related to tax increases or mandatory payments, or to cover these topics in a positive light.

Meduza’s sources also stressed that the budget is “not supposed to be a taboo topic” overall, but that media coverage of it should “emphasize the right things.” “It’s better if the overall narrative is positive and social,” one source said.

A source close to the Putin administration added:

According to another source close to the president’s team, the Kremlin wants media coverage of the budget to inspire “social optimism, not pessimism, in the context that everything is going towards the war.” The source continued: “The messaging around the special military operation’s goals is still unclear. So far, it’s been possible to portray military activity as happening somewhere far away and not affecting people directly. But the increase in military spending could become a trigger: What is the money being spent on and why?”

Meduza reviewed coverage of the budget from pro-Kremlin and Russian state media so far. Their reporting is consistent with the Kremlin’s “recommendations,” keeping largely silent about military spending and instead emphasizing that the plan will “allow for increased funding for obligations, programs, and projects” while maintaining that the “distribution of social spending is quite fair.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has described the budget as “carefully balanced and well-considered.”

Two sources close to the Putin administration said they expect the topic of war spending to “fade from the information landscape” in the near future. “It has another negative effect: if money for the special military operation is allocated in the 2025 budget, citizens might think, ‘Well, this means the war will definitely last at least another year.’ And society is very tired of war,” one source said.