As fighting continues in Pokrovsk and Kupyansk, Russia bears down on Ukraine’s main remaining Donbas strongholds. Meduza analyses the latest from the front.
Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article reviews recent battlefield developments based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the outset, and our military analyses reflect our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.
Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.
Key updates as of January 16, 2026
January tends to be a month of preparation before the Russian and Ukrainian militaries’ spring campaigns. Cold weather and snowfall make offensive operations more difficult, and at the start of 2026 both armies are engaged in regrouping their forces. This time, however, Russian offensives and Ukrainian counterattacks are continuing on several sections of the front.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have withdrawn the remnants of their units that had been fighting in near-total encirclement south of Kostiantynivka, along the shores of the Kleban-Bykske Reservoir, and have also pulled troops out of Myrnohrad, east of Pokrovsk. This has made it possible to redeploy some forces from the Pokrovsk area to Hulyaipole in the Zaporizhzhia region, where a large-scale Russian offensive is underway.
That said, Ukrainian commanders will likely soon have to reinforce the Pokrovsk sector again. There, Russian forces are assembling an increasingly powerful grouping for an offensive against the Kramatorsk–Sloviansk agglomeration.
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Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka
Ukraine’s 12th Special Forces Brigade Azov has been withdrawn from the Kleban-Bykske Reservoir between Toretsk and Kostiantynivka, where its units had spent several months fighting in near-total encirclement. The brigade — successor to the unit that was captured in Mariupol in 2022 — has been redeployed to the Dobropillia sector. Ukrainian commanders likely believe that the simplified front line created by pulling back from the reservoir’s southern bank will allow the area to be held with fewer forces.
Russian troops immediately stepped up their offensive along the reservoir’s northern shore, advancing toward Kostiantynivka from both the southwest and the south. In the city itself, fighting continues on the southeastern outskirts. Russian forces are also trying to break through to the city from the northeast, advancing from the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas canal, where they’ve established a bridgehead on the western bank near Novomarkove.
In the Dobropillia sector, between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, Russian forces are finalizing preparations for another attempt to break through toward Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk. Marine infantry units transferred to the area last fall from the Sumy region (where they suffered heavy equipment losses) managed to capture Shakhove and now plan to push farther north through Sofiivka. According to Russian war bloggers, the command of this improvised “marine corps” was replaced following the fall and December fighting.
In Pokrovsk, the situation stabilized after Ukrainian Armed Forces units withdrew from neighboring Myrnohrad. However, fighting continues on the flanks: neighborhoods in the town of Rodynske have changed hands several times in recent weeks alone. There are also ongoing clashes on the opposite flank, on the approaches to Hryshyne — a large village that has become the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ main stronghold in the Pokrovsk sector.
Ukrainian assault units continue to conduct raids into northern parts of Pokrovsk, likely to prevent Russian forces from building up in the city and using it as a base for further offensives toward Dobropillia and along the road to Dnipro. South of Pokrovsk, Ukrainian forces have managed to stop a Russian attempt to break north through Novopavlivka toward Mezhova and the Pokrovsk–Dnipro road.
Siversk and Lyman
January weather isn’t preventing Russian forces, which hold a significant numerical advantage in this sector, from advancing on both banks of the Siverskyi Donets River, from Siversk and near Lyman. The offensive’s main objective is to reach Sloviansk.
So far, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been unable to stop the Russian advance westward from Siversk. On the opposite bank, Russian troops have reached the river near Sviatohirsk on the western flank, while on the eastern flank they’ve captured Dibrova and Ozerne. Russian assault units have also been spotted in central Lyman.
It’s likely that before the end of winter, Ukrainian troops will be forced to withdraw from Lyman and the forests along the northern bank of the Siverskyi Donets and shift their focus to defending the southern bank and Sloviansk. The key defensive objectives are to block advances from the Siversk direction along the southern bank and to prevent Russian forces from crossing the river from the north.
Kupyansk
Ukrainian forces have succeeded in splitting the Russian bridgehead on the western bank of the Oskil River north of Kupyansk in two. At the same time, Russian assault units that attempted to seize the city in the summer and fall have been left effectively encircled inside Kupyansk itself. Ukrainian troops now control most of the city center.
Russian forces are attempting to reverse the situation. From their positions in Radkivka, they are attacking toward Kupyansk and its western suburbs. The Russian army still controls the exit of a gas pipeline there that was used, among other things, to supply the bridgehead. The aim is to restore contact with Russian assault units inside the city and, in turn, cut off Ukrainian units that have broken through into Kupyansk.
At the same time, Russian forces are trying to seize Ukrainian positions in the eastern half of Kupyansk, on the right bank of the Oskil, as well as Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi, where the river crossings that supply Ukrainian units on the bridgehead are located. Advancing through the outskirts of Kurylivka, Russian troops have — after several failed attempts — reached the near approaches to Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi.
Hulyaipole and the Haichur River
Russian forces have crossed the Haichur River and captured the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ stronghold of Hulyaipole. Fighting is still underway on the city’s western outskirts, but Russian troops are already attempting to push deeper into Ukrainian defenses near Staroukrainka and near Pryluky, north of the city.
Russian forces have already managed to establish several bridgeheads on the western bank of the Haichur. From these positions, they’ll likely attempt to launch an offensive toward Orikhiv in the central part of the Zaporizhzhia region. After several years of fighting, Russian troops failed to break through to Orikhiv from the south; an attack from the east may prove easier. It was precisely this approach — advancing along the front from the east — that allowed the Russian “Vostok” contingent over the past year to capture all of the southwestern part of the Donetsk region, including the fortified towns of Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka, as well as the eastern part of the Zaporizhzhia region.
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Meduza’s Razbor (“Explainers”) team