‘In a crisis, it’s every country for itself’ Russia isn’t a target of Trump’s tariffs — but economists say Moscow should still be anxious
On Wednesday, the United States began imposing new “reciprocal” tariffs on imports from dozens of countries, with Chinese goods now facing duties of up to 104 percent. Beijing responded by raising tariffs on U.S. exports to 84 percent. The consequences of the growing trade war between the two countries are likely to extend far beyond their borders. According to Natalia Milchakova, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global, China may stop exporting certain goods and materials to the U.S. and instead increase shipments to BRICS countries, including Russia. Meanwhile, the broader effects of the new U.S. tariffs on the global economy could have an even greater impact on Russia. Meduza examines how Russian analysts and journalists are assessing Donald Trump’s trade war — and what it could mean for Russia.
Writing on Wednesday afternoon, shortly after the U.S.–China tariff increases were announced, the independent Telegram channel Faridaily noted that Russian officials had remained conspicuously silent about the potential implications for Russia. So far, the only official to comment has been Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina.
“If this tariff war escalates, as we’re now seeing, it typically leads to a slowdown in global trade and the world economy — and possibly a drop in demand for our energy exports,” Nabiullina said on April 8, as quoted by state media. “That creates risks for us.”
Faridaily also pointed out that oil prices have fallen sharply since Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2, when he announced new tariffs on nearly 90 countries. “Meanwhile, the Finance Ministry has updated its federal budget outlook, which still relies on oil and gas revenues for about 25–30 percent of total income,” the channel reported. “So far, the picture remains stable: oil and gas revenues are down year-on-year, but still above baseline expectations. Other revenue sources have grown 10.6 percent compared to last year, and according to the ministry, there’s now a strong chance they’ll significantly exceed the annual target.”
However, in a worst-case scenario, Trump’s trade war could bring global growth to a halt. For Russia, this would likely mean weaker oil prices and tougher sanctions, leading to deeper export discounts, according to an analysis from iStories. “In a crisis, it’s every country for itself,” the outlet writes. “A leaked Central Bank report shows that OPEC’s spare capacity is equal to Russia’s current exports — meaning Russia would have to slash prices to stay competitive.”
Covering the revenue shortfall would mean dipping into the national rainy-day fund — what’s left of it. It could run dry as early as this year. To rebuild it at lower oil prices, the breakeven oil price in the budget would need to fall to $40 a barrel by 2027. That would mean lower base oil and gas revenues, and likely budget cuts.
Under this scenario, Russia’s GDP could shrink by 3–4 percent this year, followed by another 1–2 percent drop in 2026. While the government would likely try to support the economy, it wouldn’t have the same fiscal capacity it did during the COVID-19 crisis.
“Inflation would spike — possibly hitting 13–15 percent in the first year,” the leaked report warns. “The Central Bank would likely raise interest rates to 22–25 percent on average in 2025. Inflation might ease to 8–9 percent by 2026.”
From there, iStories predicts, the ruble would likely weaken sharply as exports declined faster than imports. With rising uncertainty, both households and businesses would reduce spending: consumer demand could fall by 2.5–3.5 percent in 2025 and another 1.5–2.5 percent in 2026. For comparison, consumption dropped 1.1 percent in 2022, 6.5 percent in 2023, and an estimated 6 percent in 2024.
Alexander Firanchuk, an economist from the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, told RBC that the key risk for Russia is that “a drop in global output, triggered by disrupted supply chains, could depress demand for fuel and other top Russian exports.” Alexey Tretyakov, founder of the asset management firm Ari Capital, has similarly warned that Russia is underestimating the threat, arguing that a U.S. recession would “practically guarantee” a drop in oil prices.
Could BRICS replace the U.S. market for Chinese goods?
An analysis published Wednesday by RBC explored the possibility that Chinese exporters could reroute goods to BRICS countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — in response to the new U.S. tariffs. Some of the experts who spoke to the outlet predicted that Trump’s tariffs could lead to some increase in Chinese exports flowing to Russia and other BRICS countries, but most agreed that the combined market capacity of these countries would still fall short.
In 2024, Russia alone imported about $115 billion worth of Chinese products. The U.S., by contrast, imported around $439 billion — a figure projected to drop by 80 percent over the next two years, or about $350 billion.
“Combined, the [BRICS] countries import just over $200 billion worth of Chinese goods annually — and that figure is likely to remain stable in the near future,” Alexander Isakov, an economist at Bloomberg Economics, told RBC.
Economist Oleg Shibanov said it’s unrealistic to believe BRICS markets can fully absorb the displaced volume. He noted that Chinese exporters are likely to resume their 2018–2019 strategy of routing goods through third countries to reach the U.S.
Pavel Kuznetsov, vice president of Russia’s National Coordination Center for International Business Cooperation, said China will likely try to unload excess goods to avoid shutting down export-focused production lines. However, he added that much of the advanced industrial and tech equipment China exports to the U.S. is sold under long-term contracts with fixed prices. That means the extra tariff costs will be a bigger problem for U.S. corporate buyers than for Chinese suppliers, as those American companies are locked into agreements with Chinese producers.
Given the lack of viable substitutes for many Chinese products in the U.S. market, Kuznetsov concluded, there's more likely to be a sharp rise in prices than a collapse in demand. “The BRICS markets simply can’t replace American consumer demand,” he said.
Ilona Gorsheneva-Dolunts, a representative of the Russian business association Opora Rossiya in China’s Guangdong province, confirmed that China is indeed shifting its exports due to the tariff wars with the U.S. and the EU., though she said Russia is just one of many destinations. She pointed to potential growth in Chinese exports to Russia across several sectors: industrial equipment and components (as replacements for European and American suppliers), cars and auto parts, electronics and appliances, clothing and consumer goods, and green technologies.
Under Joe Biden, RBC wrote, many suppliers from third countries were wary of secondary U.S. sanctions if they shipped goods to Russia. But now they may be less risk-averse and more willing to increase shipments, experts told the outlet.
At the same time, Russia may not welcome an unchecked influx of cheap Chinese goods. According to Medvedkov, in such a scenario, Moscow could introduce protective measures in response. “As a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Russia has access to a wide range of trade defense tools, including anti-dumping measures,” Medvedkov said. However, he noted that these procedures can take anywhere from a few months to a year to come into a effect.
Medvedkov also warned that Russia should be preparing for an influx of goods from a range of countries — not just China — since any country excluded from a deal with the U.S. will be looking for new markets.
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