Moscow pushes on As Ukraine withdraws to avoid encirclement in the Kursk region, Russia seizes the initiative on multiple fronts
Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.
Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.
Key updates as of March 19, 2025
The Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) have nearly withdrawn from Russia’s Kursk region, successfully avoiding large-scale encirclement by advancing Russian troops. They now hold only four small villages near the border, the Sudzha border crossing, and a main gas pipeline distribution station that’s been out of commission since January 1. The Russian command now plans to cut off the Sudzha–Sumy road inside Ukraine to force a full Ukrainian withdrawal from the Kursk region.
Meanwhile, across the front line in Ukraine, momentum appears to be shifting back to Russian forces. After a month of Ukrainian counterattacks, primarily around Pokrovsk, Kyiv’s offensive efforts seem to be losing steam. What’s more, these operations have required Ukrainian commanders to shift reserves from other sections of the front — a development the Russian army is working to exploit by launching a major offensive west of Orikhiv in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region.
Note: This report describes the situation on the front lines as of the early morning of March 19. Russia’s offensive in the Kursk region is developing rapidly. We will continue to provide updates on the operation as part of our regular coverage.
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Russia
Kursk region
Earlier this month, Russian forces swiftly broke through Ukrainian defenses near the city of Sudzha, retaking most of the remaining territory Ukraine held in the Kursk region in a matter of days.
More recently, however, their advance has slowed as the front line has shifted closer to the border. The Ukrainian army now controls two separate footholds near the border: one centered around the village of Guevo and the other around the Sudzha border crossing.
A separate road from Ukraine’s Sumy region leads to Guevo, meaning this foothold is not dependent on the Sudzha–Sumy highway. Intense fighting is ongoing on both sides of the border near the village, which is protected by difficult terrain — the Psel River shields its eastern approaches, and dense forests in the area provide cover for Ukrainian infantry.
To the west of Guevo, Russian forces reached the Ukrainian border weeks ago, cutting off one of the roads leading to Sudzha. Further west, another Ukrainian bridgehead remains along the Sudzha–Sumy highway. So far, Russian troops have been unable to advance from Sudzha toward the border any further than the village of Gogolevka.
It appears that the Russian command doesn’t see an urgent need for a rapid push toward the Sudzha border crossing. Instead, Russian forces likely aim to cut the Sudzha–Sumy highway on the other side of the border and force the AFU to retreat into Ukrainian territory. Russian units have already taken control of Basivka, a village in Ukraine’s Sumy region located just three kilometers (less than two miles) from the highway.
Judging by geolocated open-source videos from multiple areas in the Sudzhansky district, there are no major Ukrainian units encircled in the Kursk region. However, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump continue to claim otherwise.
Ukraine
Toretsk
The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Toretsk metropolitan area has stalled. Now, units of Russia’s 8th Combined Arms Army, recently redeployed from the Kurakhove area, have launched a counterattack. Ukraine’s earlier advances were successful largely because they coincided with a rotation of Russian forces: units from the 51st Army had withdrawn from Toretsk, while the 8th Army had yet to fully establish itself in the city.
The Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState claims there was no Ukrainian offensive in the city, arguing that much of Toretsk was a contested “gray zone” where fighting reignited after the arrival of the 8th Army. However, available evidence contradicts this. Open-source footage from early February shows that Russian forces had firm control over the city center and its northwestern districts, while Ukrainian troops remained in the Zabalka neighborhood to the southwest and in the settlement of Krymske in the northeastern part of the Toretsk metropolitan area.
After losing parts of the city center, along with the villages of Leonidivka and Shcherbynivka to the west, Russian forces launched a counterattack in mid-March. Determining the exact front line from geolocated footage remains difficult. However, the heaviest fighting appears to be near the stadium in central Toretsk, where Russian troops have managed to maneuver behind Ukrainian troops, as well as in the Zabalka neighborhood.
Russian forces have also begun attacks to the west of Toretsk, near Novobakhmutivka, and to the east, near Ozarianivka. It’s possible that the Russian command has now opted to bypass the city entirely, aiming to advance toward Kostiantynivka rather than attempting another direct assault on Toretsk.
Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka
Ukrainian forces continue to conduct counterattacks to the west, south, and east of Pokrovsk.
Earlier attacks near the villages of Pishchane, Udachne, and Zaporizhzhya, as well as the settlement of Kotlyne, successfully halted Russia’s advance toward Pokrovsk. Now, Ukrainian troops are trying to push Russian forces back from the city by launching assaults on the villages of Lysivka and Shevchenko to the south. But they haven’t had much success so far, managing to secure only parts of these villages.
To the east of Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian counterattack forced Russian troops to retreat from the Pokrovsk–Kostiantynivka road near the village of Yelyzavetivka. However, Russian forces continue to advance toward Kostiantynivka south of this road.
In southern Donbas, near the occupied district center of Velyka Novosilka, Russian troops are advancing along both banks of the Mokri Yaly River. On the eastern bank, they’ve captured the village of Dniproenerhiya, and they’re approaching Vesele. Their broader objective is to cut the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia road behind Ukrainian forces, who continue to hold the western approaches to Kurakhove.
Orikhiv
After a year and a half of relative quiet, Russian forces have launched an offensive between the cities of Orikhiv and Zaporizhzhia. Part of Ukraine’s 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, which had been defending this sector, was transferred to southern Donbas, weakening Ukrainian positions south of Zaporizhzhia.
Russian troops bypassed the village of Pyatykhatky — where heavy fighting took place in the summer of 2023 — from the east, captured the village of Stepove, and reached Mali Shcherbaky. If Ukraine doesn’t commit additional reserves, Russian forces could reach Orikhiv from the west.
Russian troops have also stepped up their offensive south of Orikhiv, pushing north from the village of Robotyne.
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