Having liberated the village of Robotyne, the Ukrainian army looks further south Both sides are bracing themselves for a battle of attrition
Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments in the battlefield, based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose. Here’s what we knew about the state of combat as of 8 p.m. Moscow time (5 p.m. GMT) on Wednesday, August 23.
Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.
Key updates
After throwing its remaining reserves into battle in early August, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are continuing to advance their positions in southern Ukraine. Kyiv’s calculation seems to be that the Russian side will deplete itself faster than the defenders. The main thrust of the Ukrainian offensive is taking shape in the center of the southern front, between Orikhiv and Tokmak. This is where the AFU command has sent its main reserves: one airborne brigade, three mechanized ones, and additionally some formations of the National Guard. Together with the forces that had been advancing in this area since June, this combined grouping broke through the Russian marines’ positions between Robotyne and Verbove, two villages south of Orikhiv, advancing by several kilometers southward. Still, the Russian defense here hasn’t collapsed entirely, even without reinforcements.
The Ukrainian offensive is going slower in other areas, but Russia’s offensive operation in the north (by Kupyansk in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region) also doesn’t show any signs of real success. Its likely aim, to leech Ukrainian forces away from the main, southern theater of the operation, hasn’t yet produced the intended effect.
Orikhiv operating area
Over the last week, the AFU’s assault on the fortified Russian positions in the village of Robotyne liberated this former Russian stronghold in the area. The latest footage shows Ukrainian units reaching the southern edge of the village. But some Russian detachments might still be present here, and certainly nearby. But storming Robotyne has been costly for Ukrainian forces. Judging by available satellite images, the Russian army is now trying to prepare an intermediate line of defense several kilometers south, by Solodka Balka and Novoprokopivka.
The AFU are likely to try attacking this new line of defense along a broad segment of the frontline. (This is the approach that worked in their favor in Robotyne itself.) To do this, they must continue moving east towards Verbove, before trying to break through to Novoprokopivka in the southern direction.
What happens next will depend on the Russian command’s readiness to send in further reserves. But the fact is that the Russian side has reserves at its disposal. (They’re now stationed by Melitopol and Berdyansk, and also along the east bank of Dnipro.)
Velyka Novosilka
The AFU’s second strike in the south of the country, along the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia regional border that goes through Velyka Novosilka, has fizzled out. After liberating Staromaiorske and Urozhaine, villages in the Mokri Yaly River valley, the AFU is yet to advance further south, towards the main Russian defense line in Staromlynivka. Before trying to force its way south, the Ukrainian command might need to finish the work already started on the flanks of the operation. This would take liberating Pryyutne on the western flank and Staromaiorske with the adjacent forestries east of Urozhaine.
East bank of Dnipro
The Ukrainian military has lost some of the bridgeheads it had created back in July on the eastern bank of Dnipro River and its tributary, Konka. Still, the threat of new bridgeheads being created may keep the Russian command from withdrawing the reserves stationed here, despite the fact of this area being so far removed from the main theater of this war.
Kupyansk operating area
The Russian offensive on the northern segment of the front looks fairly strange: both sides admit that the Russian Armed Forces (RAF) are exerting real pressure on the other side, but there isn’t any evidence to back these claims. For several weeks, battles within the Lyman Pershyi–Synkivka–Olshany triangle haven’t brought any real breakthrough for the Russian forces pressing towards Kupyansk. Further south, the RAF managed to occupy the village of Novoselivske and the nearby Kuzemivka train station, but still couldn’t make any progress towards Kupyansk.
The battle of attrition to date
Since the AFU couldn’t get past the Russian defenses and gain operative momentum beyond them, they have reverted to a strategy of attrition, now trying to deplete the adversary. Who suffers more from this strategy is still unclear. Since June 4, when the Ukrainian offensive started, hundreds of videos have been posted, documenting the destruction and crippling of military equipment on both sides. Comparing the sheer numbers of these publications can only lead to the crudest grasp of the two sides’ real losses. When pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian sources are pooled for respective comparison, the two sides’ losses turn out to be roughly equal.
- Judging by the posted footage, the Russian military has lost twice as many tanks (206) as the AFU (115) since June. In August, that proportion was only slightly different, with 46 damaged Russian tanks to the Ukrainian 27.
- But artillery losses (that being the most important category of equipment for this kind of warfare) are roughly the same for the two sides. Here, 159 videos showing the destruction or crippling of Russian artillery weapons is balanced by 148 such videos from the Ukrainian side. Convinced that Russian artillery is what hampers the offensive, the AFU invested heavily in suppressing it starting in mid-July. But in August, Russia lost 36 artillery systems, and Ukraine 33.
- The AFU has higher losses in armored equipment (including armored cars, fighting vehicles, de-mining equipment and other armored machinery), used for delivering infantry across minefields and for de-mining the areas that have been mined by the adversary. There are 401 videos of Ukrainian armored equipment being damaged or destroyed, compared to just 336 such videos from the other side. In August, though, Russia lost 87 units of armored equipment to the Ukrainian 80.
The data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old. Meduza is careful in working with data, but mistakes are still possible, and perhaps even inevitable. If you spot one, please let us know by sending an email to [email protected]. Thank you!
Translated by Anna Razumnaya.