An altered contact line by Vremivka reveals Kyiv’s further plans With the collapse of Russian positions along the ‘Vremivka wedge,’ the Ukrainian army is still short of a breakthrough

Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Meduza has adopted a consistent antiwar position, holding Russia responsible for its military aggression and atrocities. As part of this commitment, we regularly update an interactive map that documents combat operations in Ukraine and the damage inflicted by Russia’s invasion forces. Our map is based exclusively on previously published open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect reports already available publicly and determine their geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process.

Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

A bird’s-eye view

What we knew as of 8:30 p.m. GMT on June 12, 2023

Ukraine’s counteroffensive has by now brought its first results. After a week of fighting, the defending army has liberated all of the area within the so-called “Vremivka wedge” (or “Vremivka protrusion”), as the Russian military has referred to its own positions that had been, until recently, protruding towards Velyka Novosilka, near the border of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. Now the frontline has moved towards the base of that wedge, marked by the settlements Urozhaine and Staromaiorske. Beyond them lies Russia’s main fortified defense line.

Apart from this segment, the Ukrainian army’s achievements are still fairly limited. At the center of the Zaporizhzhia front, the brigades advancing from Orikhiv towards Tokmak (and probably intent on carrying on towards Melitopol) are losing equipment, including systems delivered from the West, but haven’t been able to penetrate towards the main Russian line of defense. Heavy fighting is, meanwhile, taking place south of the city of Zaporizhzhia, where the Ukrainian units progressed by a few kilometers southward but haven’t yet ruptured the main Russian defensive line.

The ‘Vremivka wedge’

Two AFU brigades (one of them formed this year), together with their auxiliary battalions, including a specialized drone-operating battalion, have been thwarted in an attempted offensive in Novodonetske (17 kilometers, or about 10 miles, east of Velyka Novosilka). These units have now changed the direction of their main thrust.

• In early June, the AFU captured Novodonetske for a brief while, but then had to retreat after taking major losses. Almost right away, the Ukrainian command sent reinforcements that enabled the defenders to rupture the frontline a few kilometers to the west, very close to one of the flanks of the protrusive Russian positions. By June 10, the Ukrainian army had liberated the village of Blahodatne by the base of the wedge-shaped Russian positions in the Mokri Yaly River valley.
• Further west, on the other Russian flank, the Ukrainian units drove the Russian troops from their elevated positions, into the Mokri Yaly River valley. (There is, for example, video footage of the Russian units retreating to the village of Storozheve, located in the valley.)
• As a result, the Russian units were squeezed, from two sides, into the low riverside marshes there. The Russian command then likely decided to withdraw from the entire “Vremivka wedge.” The AFU then liberated Storozheve, Neskuchne, and Makarivka, another village just a couple of kilometers south (although there isn’t yet any visual evidence of that latter fact). Sources from both sides, however, report that the Ukrainian army has finally arrived in Urozhaine, effectively collapsing the wedge formed by Russia’s earlier positions.

The Ukrainian command’s plan is clear. Russia’s protrusive positions had a weak defense, beyond which (given the possibility of getting past the powerful Russian fortifications just south) lie some key operational directions: the Volnovakha–Krasna Polyana line, opening the prospect of advancement towards Mariupol, and one of the main Russian supply lines in southern Ukraine, the Taganrog–Mariupol–Berdyansk highway.

The Russian command’s plans aren’t nearly as transparent. On the one hand, it seems not to have planned on staunchly defending the area within the wedge, since its main defense positions were set up 15 kilometers (or nine miles) south of the protrusion. On the other hand, its withdrawal from those “protrusive” positions didn’t look either well-organized or premeditated. Some Russian units, for example, had been cut off from the bulk of the grouping. Ukrainian footage shows several Russian armored vehicles trying to break out when surrounded, and their crews being captured. Even if planned in advance, the Russian retreat seems to have been chaotic rather than controllable, given the pressure from Ukrainian formations. Now, the question is whether the Russian command intends to defend Urozhaine, Staromaiorske, and Staromlynivka (all located north of its main defense line), and also whether (or how much) the retreat may have affected the Russian units’ combat-readiness.

The Orikhiv direction

In the very center of the Zaporizhzhia front, the Ukrainian command has mobilized more substantial forces than what we’ve seen by Velyka Novosilka. There are three brigades here, including the only brigades equipped with Leopard tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles. Still, this hasn’t yet enabled the defenders to rupture the frontline, and their several attempts to get near the Russian positions have led to serious equipment losses. The Russian army is resorting to different kinds of defense tactics, including remote mining with anti-tank mines, massive “kamikaze” drone strikes (mainly on lighter armored equipment or else on fighting equipment with absent crews), and artillery strikes on groups of armored vehicles trying to force their way through minefields, where drones are used to improve the artillery’s aim. Russian sources have also publicized dozens of helicopter strikes with anti-tank guided missiles, used against the advancing AFU armored equipment.

As a result, the Ukrainian side has recently told The Wall Street Journal that the invading army’s resistance on this segment has been greater than expected, and that Ukraine’s equipment losses also exceed what had been projected earlier. Without bringing reinforcements to this area, a Ukrainian breakthrough doesn’t look very likely.

The direction south of the city of Zaporizhzhia

The Ukrainian forces are carrying on an offensive on yet another segment of the southern front. Some 25 kilometers (15.5 miles) west of Orikhiv (and 30 kilometers, or less than 20 miles, from Zaporizhzhia), an older Ukrainian brigade traversed the village of Lobkove, meeting little resistance and moving towards the first line of Russian fortifications by Pyatykhatky and Luhove. In recent days, there’s been heavy fighting by the Russian fortifications three kilometers away from Lobkove. Both sides are using helicopters, “kamikaze” drones, artillery, and armored equipment.

The takeaway

Clearly, the Ukrainian army is still far from a decisive breakthrough, even by Velyka Novosilka. The Russian defenses (not only the main lines, but even the forward edges) have proven strong, compared to what we’ve seen by Kharkiv last fall. But the AFU has so far put into action only two or three of the newer brigades, along with several older ones. Meanwhile, around 30 brigades in all have been formed especially for the purpose of this summer’s counteroffensive.

The data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old. Meduza is careful in working with data, but mistakes are still possible, and perhaps even inevitable. If you spot one, please let us know by sending an email to [email protected]. Thank you!