With most Russian positions frozen in expectation, only Wagner Group is persistently storming Bakhmut Here’s the state of combat on our updated map
Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Meduza has adopted a consistent antiwar position, holding Russia responsible for its military aggression and atrocities. As part of this commitment, we regularly update an interactive map that documents combat operations in Ukraine and the damage inflicted by Russia’s invasion forces. Our map is based exclusively on previously published open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect reports already available publicly and determine their geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process.
Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.
Key updates
What we knew as of 8 a.m. GMT on Thursday, April 20
The Russian assaults on different segments of the frontline are increasingly sporadic, even though the invading forces haven’t yet quit trying to advance. Still, their efforts across the board are positional in character and often boil down to shelling the other side while being shelled in return.
We saw a similar picture in July and August 2022, when, after capturing Lysychansk, Russian troops did not stop advancing immediately. Instead, their offensives grew less and less determined, as if their momentum was gradually running out. Last November, the Ukrainian offensive, which drove the Russian forces beyond the secure barrier of the Dnipro River, ended in a similar way, as the Ukrainian side’s assaults on the Russian positions in the north of the Luhansk region gradually waned in December.
This dynamic signals a transfer of initiative from one of the adversaries to the other. Russian formations are likely expecting a Ukrainian offensive. For the time being, this keeps them from wasting strength and ammunition in localized tactical attacks. The one exception to this state of affairs is Bakhmut, where Ukrainian formations still control the western quarters of the city, staving off the critical prospect of being completely surrounded.
Bakhmut
- According to Russia’s Defense Ministry and the Wagner Group command, the mercenary group has transferred control over parts of the line of contact to the regular Russian army. These are specifically the segments between the Sakko i Vantsetti village (named after the American anarchists Nicola Sacco and Bartolomeo Vanzetti) and Zaliznyanske north of Bakhmut, and between Ozarianivka and Stupochky in the south. This has freed the mercenary assault groups to regroup and mount a new offensive in Bakhmut.
- After gaining ground in central Bakhmut in early April, the mercenaries have been halted at a new defensive line not far from the railroad. Fighting over the train station and its vicinity has been ongoing for more than two weeks.
- Judging by the most recent Ukrainian drone videos, Wagner mercenaries were able to penetrate past the railroad. It’s unclear whether the Ukrainian army’s main strongholds, the train station and the grain elevator north of it, have been captured. The elevator building rising over Bakhmut’s western outskirts had been blown up by the retreating Ukrainian units, but half of it has remained intact. You can watch a panoramic video of fighting in this area here.
- Wagner Group is also trying to cut off the Ukrainian units in the western quarters of Bakhmut from their supply lines, by advancing right along the edges of the defensive positions from the north (near the Siverny Stavok pond) and from the southwest (by the high-rise buildings on Tchaikovsky St.). The Wagner units coming from the north have managed to capture the Rose Alley district and the former House of Culture blown up by Ukrainian troops around April 10–19.
- The siege may go on for a while. The mercenaries are now close to a district comprised entirely of concrete high-rise buildings and well-connected to the Ukrainian “mainland”: this area has been thoroughly fortified by the Ukrainian side. Wagner Group, likely reinforced by paratrooper units of the regular Russian army, will almost certainly try to capture the remaining two roads out of Bakhmut by attacking the suburbs of Ivanivske (formerly known as Krasne) and Khromove.
- Ukrainian sources also report that Wagner units have succeeded in capturing the defenders’ positions on one of the “lifeline” thoroughfares west of the city. This isn’t the first time fighting has taken place right by the roadside, but this time the Ukrainian side is likely at risk of losing control over the highway.
- Ukrainian forces are dealing limited counteroffensives on the flanks of the Russian grouping now storming Bakhmut. To prevent the invading Russian forces from capturing the city, the Ukrainian command will likely have to mount a larger counteroffensive.
Other directions
While anticipating a Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russian forces are making no attempt to mount any serious assaults by Kreminna, Avdiivka, Marinka, or Vuhledar. Piecemeal attacks continue only in the Kreminna Forests National Park, near Bilohorivka by Lysychansk, north and southwest of Avdiivka, and both north and south of Marinka. The Russian side’s gains in these areas have been minimal or else nil over the past week.
The data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old. Meduza is careful in working with data, but mistakes are still possible, and perhaps even inevitable. If you spot one, please let us know by sending an email to [email protected]. Thank you!
Translated by Anna Razumnaya