With most Russian positions frozen in expectation, only Wagner Group is persistently storming Bakhmut Here’s the state of combat on our updated map
Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Meduza has adopted a consistent antiwar position, holding Russia responsible for its military aggression and atrocities. As part of this commitment, we regularly update an interactive map that documents combat operations in Ukraine and the damage inflicted by Russia’s invasion forces. Our map is based exclusively on previously published open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect reports already available publicly and determine their geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process.
Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.
What we knew as of 8 a.m. GMT on Thursday, April 20
The Russian assaults on different segments of the frontline are increasingly sporadic, even though the invading forces haven’t yet quit trying to advance. Still, their efforts across the board are positional in character and often boil down to shelling the other side while being shelled in return.
We saw a similar picture in July and August 2022, when, after capturing Lysychansk, Russian troops did not stop advancing immediately. Instead, their offensives grew less and less determined, as if their momentum was gradually running out. Last November, the Ukrainian offensive, which drove the Russian forces beyond the secure barrier of the Dnipro River, ended in a similar way, as the Ukrainian side’s assaults on the Russian positions in the north of the Luhansk region gradually waned in December.
This dynamic signals a transfer of initiative from one of the adversaries to the other. Russian formations are likely expecting a Ukrainian offensive. For the time being, this keeps them from wasting strength and ammunition in localized tactical attacks. The one exception to this state of affairs is Bakhmut, where Ukrainian formations still control the western quarters of the city, staving off the critical prospect of being completely surrounded.
While anticipating a Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russian forces are making no attempt to mount any serious assaults by Kreminna, Avdiivka, Marinka, or Vuhledar. Piecemeal attacks continue only in the Kreminna Forests National Park, near Bilohorivka by Lysychansk, north and southwest of Avdiivka, and both north and south of Marinka. The Russian side’s gains in these areas have been minimal or else nil over the past week.
The data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old. Meduza is careful in working with data, but mistakes are still possible, and perhaps even inevitable. If you spot one, please let us know by sending an email to [email protected]. Thank you!