What athletes is Russia sending to Rio? Here's how the Olympic team is shaping up.

On Sunday, July 24, the International Olympic Committee decided to set conditions to allow Russian athletes to participate in the 2016 Summer Olympics, which will begin in Brazil in roughly two weeks. Each Russian athlete, in all sports categories, will be assessed individually for their doping history and those whose names appeared in the independent report prepared by the World Anti-Doping Agency will be banned, as will be those who ever found themselves involved in a doping scandal. As we await the decision of the IOC, Meduza looks at which members of Russia’s national teams will likely compete in the 2016 Olympic Games and which sports teams will be excluded entirely.

Track and field

The full team: 68 people

Who will actually go to Rio: Nobody other than long jumper Darya Klishina. The IAAF (International Association of Athletics Federations) concluded that the athlete, who recently trained in the United States, was not involved in Russia’s state-sponsored doping program, and gave her the right to compete in the Olympics and has no intention to review this matter further.

Hopes for a medal: Minimal. Klishina has never even once achieved higher than 7th place at world championships. She has been unable to surpass her long jump record of 7.05 meters for six consecutive years.

Weightlifting

The full team: 8 people

Who will actually go to Rio: In all likelihood, nobody.

The International Weightlifting Federation (IWF) recently introduced new regulations stipulating that an entire team is disqualified, if three or more athletes or any national team tests positive for doping in the 2008 or 2012 Olympics. Russia has precisely three such athletes (Marins Shainova and Nadezhda Evstyukhina in Beijing 2008, and Apti Aukhadov in London 2012). The team has also had four recent episodes involving Alexey Lovchev, Olga Zubova, Olga Afanasiev, and Alexey Kosov, as a result of which it has already lost two Olympic licenses.

The IWF will now decide whether to follow its own regulations or ban outright the major Russian star Tatiana Kashirina from participating in Rio for a doping scandal she was involved in a decade ago. The situation is rendered slightly problematic by the fact that the president of Russia’s Weightlifting Federation is Sergey Sirtkov, who also happens to be the head Europe’s anti-doping commission.

Hopes for a medal: In the event that the team is allowed to participate, Ruslan Albegov would have a significant chance at gold, and Timy Turievoy, David Bejanyan, and Artem Okulov could have a chance at other medals.

Swimming

The full team: 37 people.

Who will actually go to Rio: Most probably, part of the team. In March, the British newspaper The Times accused the All-Russian Swimming Federation (WWF) of systematic doping and concealing positive doping results (naming at least two cases), though these accusations did not go far beyond that. The International Swimming Federation (FINA), by contrast, has no qualms about Russia, but rather the opposite: its president, Julio Maglione, was one of the first to support Russian athletes and sports minister Vitaly Mutko and remains extremely loyal.

Nevertheless, the threat of exclusion looms over the best Russian swimmer in recent years: Yulia Efimova, whose career was tainted by a steroid doping scandal two years ago, which banned her from competing for 1.5 years. Efimova has already announced that she would appeal to an arbitration court in the event of being denied an Olympic license. Additionally, Natalia Lovtsova and Mikhail Dovgaluk, who were involved in methylhexaneamine doping scandals two years ago, may be banned from the Olympics, as well.

Hopes for a medal: Even in Efimova’s absence, Russian medal prospects are not hopeless. Vladimir Morozov (freestyle), Eugene Rilov (backstroke), and Anastasia Fesikova (backstroke) are among the favorites in their fields.

Cycling

The full team: 17 people.

Who will actually go to Rio: Most probably, part of the team. Just this year, Yekaterina Gnidenko (Silver medalist at 2011 world championships), Alex Schmidt (2005 world champion), Elena Brezhniva (two-time European champion), and several less prominent persons were banned for doping.

Nevertheless, the UCI (International Cycling Union) is not going to ban the entire team and will, instead, assess each athlete individually. Under threat are Olga Zabelinskaya (octopamine, 2014), Ilnur Zakarin (methandienone, 2009) and Sergey Shilov (carphedon, 2009).

Hopes for a medal: Anastasia Voinova, Denis Dmitriev, and Daria Shmelev were awarded medals in the most recent world cycling championships.

Rowing

The full team: 28 people.

Who will actually go to Rio: Almost everyone. Russia’s rowing team almost saw its downfall as a result of doping at the end of the naughties, but was able to regain its consciousness since then, with only one relapse in recent years a month ago when tests showed that Olympic champion Sergei Fedorovtsev was using trimetazidine.

The International Rowing Federation (FISA) has no serious complaints against Russia, but some athletes may be banned, among them Anastasia Karabelschikova and Ivan Podshivalov, who were involved in doping scandals almost ten years ago.

Hopes for a medal: Minimal. Rowing is not Russia’s forte.

Wrestling

The full team: 17 people.

Who will actually go to Rio: Almost everyone. United World Wrestling (UWW) is absolutely loyal to Russia and has no reasons to ban Russian athletes. The only person under question is Viktor Lebedev who, having tested positive for the “equine” steroid boldenone in the beginning of his career, was banned from competing for two years. 

Hopes for a medal: Wrestlers were the most-highly awarded Russian athletes at recent Olympic Games. Russia’s ambitions at the Rio games are on par with its achievements at the London games, where it won 11 medals in total, including four golds.

Tennis

The full team: 8 people.

Who will actually go to Rio: Everyone but the star player: Maria Sharapova, who tested positive for meldonium. Sharapova is now six months into her ban from professional tennis competition. The rest Russia’s team, however, can calmly prepare for the Rio games, says the International Tennis Federation (ITF).

Hopes for a medal: Ekaterina Makarova and Elena Vesnina.

Judo

The full team: 11 people.

Who will actually go to Rio: Almost everyone. One year ago, Russian champion Peter Khachirov received a four-year suspension for doping. This story, however, was an entirely internal issue. At the international level, Russian Judo maintains a clean reputation.

Hopes for a medal: Thanks to the work of Italian coach Ezio Gamba, Russian judo fighters have become accustomed to securing medals in each weight category.

Others

In most sports, Russia has little need to prove the integrity of its athletes. The international federations of these sports allow Russian athletes to participate in the Olympics almost automatically. Of these, the highest chances of Russian medals are in the fields of archery, boxing, canoeing and kayaking, shooting, rhythmic and artistic gymnastics, synchronized swimming, and fencing. Others Russian athletes expected to participate will represent the following sports: triathlon, pentathlon, volleyball, diving, women’s handball, slalom, equestrianism, table tennis, sailing, beach volleyball, trampoline, taekwondo, and golf. As for soccer, basketball, rugby, and hockey—there will be no Russian participants, but this has nothing to do with doping. Russian athletes merely failed to attain the necessary level to gain Olympic entry to the competitions in these sports.

This text was translated from Russian by Raisa Ostapenko.