Picking up speed As Kyiv struggles to counter Moscow’s multipronged offensive, Russia launches a surprise assault on another Ukrainian stronghold

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates as of November 26, 2024

Russian forces are mounting simultaneous assaults on multiple Ukrainian strongholds in Donbas and the northeastern part of the Kharkiv region. In mid-November, they suddenly pushed into the eastern part of Kupyansk and reached the center of Chasiv Yar. By late November, they’d advanced into the heart of Kurakhove and the outskirts of Velyka Novosilka.

Russian assault groups crossed about 10 kilometers (over six miles) of open steppe to reach Velyka Novosilka from the direction of Vuhledar and Shakhtarske — a stark contrast to the year of intense fighting it took to cover a similar distance approaching the town from the south. In southern Donbas, Ukraine appears to have concentrated its defenses on Kurakhove, leaving Velyka Novosilka poorly defended to the east. Ukraine’s forces remain stretched thin, struggling to counter Russia’s multipronged offensive. When they manage to slow Russian advances in one area, Russian forces break through defenses in neighboring sectors.

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Ukraine

Velyka Novosilka

In mid-November, Russian forces launched an offensive west of Velyka Novosilka, seizing Levadne, Rivnopil, and Novodarivka — villages reclaimed by Ukrainian troops during their summer 2023 counteroffensive. Meanwhile, fighting in the Mokri Yaly river valley, south of the town, died down for the first time in over a year.

By late November, it had become clear that Russia’s western offensive was meant to divert Ukrainian forces from the main attack coming from the east. After capturing Vuhledar in October and advancing toward Kurakhove, Russian forces formed a strike group to target Velyka Novosilka from the east, without waiting to capture Kurakhove first. Two assault groups — one advancing along the Vuhledar-Velyka Novosilka road and the other from the recently seized town of Shakhtarske — swiftly crossed 10 kilometers (about six miles) of open terrain to reach the outskirts of Velyka Novosilka.

In the coming weeks, Russian forces are likely to attack this critical stronghold simultaneously from the west, east, and south — the same tactic used in Selydove and the ongoing offensive on Kurakhove.

Kurakhove

Russian forces advancing on Kurakhove from the north have so far failed to reach the western edge of the Kurakhove Reservoir and sever Ukrainian supply lines. However, some troops managed to cross the reservoir by boat, landing in central Kurakhove. At the same time, units advancing from the east reached the city center, where fighting is ongoing on Peremohy Street, in the very heart of the city.

Meanwhile, Russian forces advanced to the village of Dalnje from Kurakhove’s eastern outskirts, while another group approached the edge of Uspenivka from the south. This maneuver has put a substantial Ukrainian contingent in the Sukhi Yaly River valley at risk of encirclement, prompting their retreat westward through Uspenivka. If Russian forces capture the village, it would open a new route into Kurakhove from the south.

Chasiv Yar

Russian forces have long established crossings at several points along the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal, which separates Bakhmut from central Chasiv Yar, forcing Ukrainian troops to abandon their bridgeheads on the eastern bank. However, until recently, Russian forces were unable to advance further due to Ukrainian footholds on the elevated terrain in central Chasiv Yar, which provides commanding views of the surrounding area.

In November, Russian troops broke through into the center of Chasiv Yar from one of their canal bridgeheads, with fighting now ongoing near the main elevated area south of the Refractory Plant.

At the same time, Russian forces are working to bypass Chasiv Yar from both the south and north. If successful, they’ll be able to reach the city of Kostiantynivka, which would unravel Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk and pave the way for a Russian offensive on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

Russia

The Kursk region

Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from their last stronghold in the northwestern part of their Kursk foothold — the Olgovskaya Grove. This forest, located north of the Sudzha-Korenevo road, had served as a fallback position for several hundred Ukrainian troops who, over the summer, attempted to advance toward the district center of Korenevo and northeast to the Rylsk-Kursk road.

After several weeks of fighting, Russian forces nearly encircled the grove, forcing the Ukrainian command to evacuate the remaining troops to Malaya Loknya.

However, Russian forces have yet to reach Malaya Loknya. Attacks from the west near Novoivanovka and from the north via Pogrebki have so far been unsuccessful, with Russian units suffering significant equipment losses during these assaults.

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